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Texas Instruments Is First Company To Slash Outlook On Japan Earthquake Aftermath
TXN which is merely the latest company to post weaker than expected earnings in a quarter which so far has been a major disappointment across the board, also has the dubious distinction of being the first company to blame its outlook cut on Japan:
Outlook
For the second quarter of 2011, TI expects:
- Revenue: $3.41 – 3.69 billion
- Earnings per share: $0.52 – 0.60
This estimate includes a negative impact of about 5 cents for costs resulting from the earthquake and its aftermath in Japan.
As the street was expecting $0.63 this is not good, but the market will promptly forgive this weakness now that every company will start using the Japanese wildcard.
TI also noted the following:
TI specifically notes that circumstances arising out of the recent earthquakes and tsunami in Japan,
including disruptions and increased costs of TI's production,
disruptions in our supply chain (including utilities) and reduced or
delayed demand from customers, could cause actual results to differ from
the expectations of TI or its management.
And you can be certain: differ they will.
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What this country needs is a good dose of Keynesian spending. I propose a $3 Trillion stimulus package. I calculate that 10 million shovel-ready jobs will be saved or created.
Fed Chairman Bernancke can fire up the printing presses and we will be able to absorb $3 Trillion of more debt. Congress shall raise the debt limit to 17.5 $ Trillion.
I AM NOT A MAD MAN!!!!!!
america's fiscal needs go far beyond your shallow printing press, krugman. what we really need is a TRUE keynesian debt limit: $100 trillion.
Pikers begone! $1 Quadrillion or nothin!
Now your talkin' real money and change...change to believe in.
We should take one out of Keynes' playbook and hire people to bury the money about the country and let the masses find it. Of course, we'd be talking busshel baskets instead of C-notes in bottles, but no reason to pick a nit here.
$1 Quadrillion or nothin!
Imagine the electricity bill the Fed would have on that... Still cheaper then cutting down trees though.
Make every unemployed person an employee of the federal government. That's a lot of jobs created.
If Starbucks misses, Goldman will pin it on Fukushima Daiichi.
It all is interconnected.
Id figure theyd pin it on the very cold yet freakishly warm winter weather?
That, too.
And a little reported conflict in Burma which has huge repercussions for Starbucks' customers.
And the Royal Wedding of pipsqueek Brits.
I saw this coming a month ago. One of TI's fabs is fairly close to Fukushima, another one is North of Tokyo and probably has power supply problems. It's hard to keep a cleanroom clean when the power goes off.
Plus, I wouldn't want to be 80 miles from Fukushima Dai-ichi on a rainy day.
We will all witness history unfolding when the giant shithouse crumbles to the ground...
I don't often make guarantees but this time is different.
I guarantee that health care in the US will increase profits because of Fukushima.
Because of this:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BnRMS71OpCY
It is in the food and water supply in the US now.
~D'jean Splicer
Japanese had a few hundred pounds too much uranium in the pool. They were bombarding it to make plutonium. This is going to make chernobyl look like a dick cheney hunting accident followed by a 9/11.
Earnings, Fuck that. Who needs earnings? You have Gringo
Profits would have been higher but dick the ceo needed a new yacht.
Even putting Japan aside, the revenue and earnings results have been dismal in the early going. It's obvious that revenue growth has stalled, but the S&P is still sitting above 1,300, even with todays S&P outlook downgrade. Alcoa, Citi, Google and Texas Instrument's results have shown that revenue has peaked. I just don't understand how a large company like google with a $180B market cap can drop 8% like it did on Friday and it has no impact on the broader market given that the S&P closed up 5 points in the day. The market completely ignored Cisco's horrible earnings last quarter and the DOW actually finished flat on the day cisco closed down 15%. I just can't believe that the market completely ignores bad earnings while good earnings will drive the market up sharply.
With the Dow being a non-weighted index, it's amazing how you just need to support one of the high value names like IBM or Caterpillar to counter a drop in Cisco or BofA.
But I agree, if one name has good results, all others in their sector rally, but if one has bad, the others don't get hit so much. It feels like a game of prisoners' dilemma - the bagholders are getting worried there is no one to hand over to...
Woh! That earthquake came right at the end of snow season...good thing for the book cookers and prognosticators.
Shitnbc said TI was bouncing back after the initial drop from release. All is well. Buy stocks yeah!
You can never lose with cmg, nflx, or lulu
Take the momo train to fantasy land.
Adding OPEN to your neverloose list!
So far, our (small) Japanese bearing supplier (and manufacturer) has said no supply disruptions due to quake, tsunami and Fukushima. They are in SW Japan, the "other end" of the country. They did tell me that seals (rubber / plastic) and other components could be affected down the road.
I am thinking that REAL SOON might be the time to back up the truck and buy a WHOLE BUNCH of Japanese bearings... Our Peruvian company does not want to be a victim of JIT going bad...
Nor do we want Ollanta Humala (Chavez-clone in the run-off election) to victimize Peru and/or us. Our company is too small to bribe people like some of the rich in Venezuela do...
Morales will simply nationalize the mines, swap shares with Hugo then you'll get to pay twice more. Secure your raw materials, and not paper equivalents. Oh ya, make sure your final payment isn't released until you take physical delivery
Evo Morales (Bolivia) is indeed talking about nationalizing the mines there.
Chavez = Morales = Humala
There are LOTS of funny emails going all over the 'Net about these guys, especially in Peru where the theme of Humala sitting on Chavez's knee is getting a lot of play...
...
Re the mines... Many buyers at the mines (in Peru anyway) are corrupt. And the bearings they use are completely different (typically BIGGER) than in our automotive replacement niche. Some years ago we took a shot at selling bearings to the mines. No dice without money under the table.
http://youtu.be/rylGaxCyVYY
Looks like the tragedy of 3-11-11 will provide the much sought after reprieve for the DNI to get out from under all those exception to reporting requirements memos that left reported earnings, and the business of audits a laughing stock to everyone but Wall Street sell side Gerbervores.
I wonder how much of those supposed off shore profits will now evaporate making the issue of repatriation moot? Early line 350bn US of the estimated 1T.
"but the market will promptly forgive this weakness"
Yes, you can forget what they have harped on for the past few weeks. This will be "forgiven"....aka "priced in", and the "market" will climb higher.
QEx is the yeast which levens this bread, and the bakers won't forget this prime ingredient to producing the wealth effect.
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5 CENTS!!!
Oooh, the Humanity!
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Office of centralized bullshit minimalizes your bad news.
nickels and dimes. TI is tough & will be ok. they know how to get around town.
the japanese people are suffering horribly, so let us remember them in some solidarity of "loss".
The big picture is not monetary loss, unless you're tuned into a Wall St finance blog... Then it's all about the $$ Benjamins!
Time for you to walk the plank. A soft pi-rat is a sunk pi-rat.
they never made a bigger bunch of tightwads than texas instrument management culture....
And they just took over my favorite semi-conductor designer: National!
Japan ate my homework!!!
Don't be bitching or the people will switch back to volcano's and sink holes and blizzards.
Though this summer feels like ..... FIRE.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rP1iKZ0F7Jg&feature=related
This portends earnings weakness ahead for a number of other companies. Stocks are facing a tough Summer 2011.
And we are supposed to forgive them for the Japan wildcard. Fuck no! This market is dog shit going down!
TI should have hired the GE guys to spin the numbers. Just give them a call and ask to go on CNBC and in return you get to fly on Ass Fuck 1.
That good old Russell 2000 is chock full of companies that depend (or used to depend) on Japanese suppliers, much smaller than Texas Instruments and therefore much more vulnerable. Won't it be interesting to see how long Uncle Ben can keep the R2000 inflated with his daily POMO blow job while these companies' supply lines shrivel along with their margins and revenues.
That is a very good observation!
JIT may very well be a problem for any US importers of ANYTHING made in NE Honshu Island.
Anyone holding stocks might want to research how vulnerable the companies are to JIT supply train problems.
Ah. Finally, someone on this thread is getting the big picture. Congrats. Most of the commenters here don't seem to get it. JIT or not, it is a convenient excuse.
Now couple this with the claimed end of QE 2.
black swan conundrum spreading now. took a while to show up, but i knew it would. toyota a couple of weeks ago said they were halting production of truck assembly line in san antonio. now this.
Thanks DoChenRollingBearing - I always follow your comments with interest. I am sure, given your obvious business experience, that you company's supply lines are quite well diversified. Good fortune to you and your family.
BTW - a good place to start researching the impact of supply interruption from Japanese sources on US companies, especially in the tech sector, would be http://www.isuppli.com/Pages/Home.aspx
And its not only the supply chain. Surprisingly this is also having an effect on the labor chain, specifically in tech and IT. I am hearing from headhunters that I last talked to a decade ago. All of a sudden they are looking to place mid and senior level IT technicians at California operations. Apparently these operations had significant dependence on outsource to subsidiaries in Japan. Oops they are screwed and they did not have a plan B. Doesn't it suck when Plan B becomes "I guess we have to make it in America now" or "I guess we have to hire Americans now". A stunner.
Earthquake, Tsumani, Nuclear Disaster.
Well Well
Just In Time.