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Texas Teachers $109 Billion Pension Fund Needs A Whopping 21% Return In Current Year To Preserve Adequate Funding Ratio

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Tue, 04/19/2011 - 22:12 | 1186591 TheGoodDoctor
TheGoodDoctor's picture

Maybe they will talk to the folks from UT?

Tue, 04/19/2011 - 22:36 | 1186657 JPDG
JPDG's picture

Hell yes.  Put it all in physical silver.  You'll beat out 21% in no time. 

Tue, 04/19/2011 - 22:40 | 1186665 knukles
knukles's picture

LOL
Take physical and it's a self-fulfilling prophecy.  
Cruise missiles trump Kodak. 

Tue, 04/19/2011 - 23:00 | 1186704 Mark McGoldrick
Mark McGoldrick's picture

No.  That would be totally idiotic. 

Not to state the obvious, but you can't eat silver.  

So what does that mean?  Physically backed silver ETPs (funds and products) have gathered inflows of over 350 tonnes this year, swelling the total to over 15,500 tonnes. This ETP supply is just sitting there - unconsumed and unused - and accounts for over half of all demand for physical silver.    

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/546299d4-61e7-11e0-88f7-00144feab49a.html#axzz...

Demand for silver has been thoroughly distorted by these ETPs in the past year.  Unlike oil or corn or cotton or most other commodities, this silver isn't being consumed or used, so all that supply is just waiting to re-enter the market when demand corrects.  Then, you'll have a tsunami of supply which will absolutely crush the market. 

Anyone who wants to make a prediction on when it will happen is just lying. No one knows. Enjoy the ride while you can, because it will end - badly.

 

Tue, 04/19/2011 - 23:19 | 1186749 Harlequin001
Harlequin001's picture

No Mark, but you can swap it for something you can eat, which is more than can be said for paper money which will not buy tomorrow what it will buy today.

Pension funds don't need to eat, they need to produce a store of wealth that pensioners can exchange for something to eat.

Tue, 04/19/2011 - 23:22 | 1186761 Mark McGoldrick
Mark McGoldrick's picture

You missed the entire point of my post. 

The point is looming, latent supply - not edibility. 

 

Tue, 04/19/2011 - 23:23 | 1186774 topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture

I gotcha and so does escape key and.peceptive to name a few.

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 04:50 | 1187189 EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

I what?? His post is a load of bollocks, silver IS being consumed by industrial processes. It doesn't just "sit there".

As for the inflow calculations, this would require either industrial use to have fallen off a cliff, or production to have increased significantly, either of which is questionnable at best.

Anyway, invest as you see fit.

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 10:21 | 1187879 Mark McGoldrick
Mark McGoldrick's picture

silver IS being consumed by industrial processes. It doesn't just "sit there...

No shit, sherlock.  That's why I said, ETPs "account for over half of all demand for physical silver."  The other half is used for industrial purposes, however, the majority is, indeed, "just sitting there". 

You guys have severe reading comprehension issues. 


Tue, 04/19/2011 - 23:40 | 1186815 Harlequin001
Harlequin001's picture

'No. That would be totally idiotic. Not to state the obvious, but you can't eat silver. '

Hi Mark, not sure that I missed the point of your post at all.

The whole point of a pension fund is to preserve wealth, not provide food, for which silver is an ideal asset. You strike me as a person with an agenda. I have been advising many to invest in gold and silver since 2002. If we close out now we are doing find, better than these pension funds and much better than any stock market.

On what basis do you think that people are suddenly going to turn back to paper money at full face value? This can be the only basis of your claim for a route in silver prices is it not?

My understanding is that the looming latent supply is entirely inadequate to satisfy existing demand, never mind potential demand for a store of value even in these pension funds, never mind sovereign funds or even sovereigns as a new money

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 03:26 | 1187151 Michael
Michael's picture

I love the smell of complete and total economic collapse in the morning.

Tue, 04/19/2011 - 23:28 | 1186788 Harlequin001
Harlequin001's picture

'Demand for silver has been thoroughly distorted by these ETFs in the past year.'

I agree, if you can get two people to buy the same thing at the same price then you have defeated price discovery. If you can get two or more investors to buy an ETF share instead of physical you have achieved the same result, which is precisely the function carried on by investment banks through short selling.

You can imagine the real price of silver if all the money that''s gone into ETF's, unallocated gold funds and derivatives had simply been invested in gold and silver bullion. No different to investors who think they are invested in wheat or corn when they are actually invested in the long side of a paper derivatives trade.

Massive price manipulation by any means. Should we be surprised that Singapore has just announced trading in cash settled gold and silver derivatives?

End badly? How can it end badly if it ends up where it started, in money? The tsunami of supply will be inadequate to fill the gaping void needed for a new global money...

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 00:30 | 1186973 Montgomery Burns
Montgomery Burns's picture

Bwaaaahahahaaaaaa! Buy silver. 1 billion chinese can't be wrong.

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 08:00 | 1187441 Klaus Daimler
Klaus Daimler's picture

You seem to make the implicit assumption that SLV et al actually contain the physical silver that they claim to.  This assumption may not be valid and could result in a paper, not physical, supply tsunami, which is, one could argue, what we have now.  Silver seems to be bearing up pretty well under the pressure.

Tue, 04/19/2011 - 23:04 | 1186721 Long-John-Silver
Long-John-Silver's picture

Obama will bail them out with our tax money.

Tue, 04/19/2011 - 23:15 | 1186750 carbonmutant
carbonmutant's picture

Not if they're in Texas....

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 08:35 | 1187541 Cash_is_Trash
Cash_is_Trash's picture

Like that interview this week where Obama tells the dude to let him finish his answers.

Eat shit Barry

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 00:55 | 1186996 CPL
CPL's picture

Built on nothing but a wish that it was paid.  Congrats to the TUT.  You were suckered in by your own trap.  Canada is next btw as much as Leo loves pushing his crippled ass on.  Leo makes more than a working Canuck blowing in a tube...but he does do that he's early stage.  Next time the fucker is on stage I'll intro him a woman that works the phones...and doesn't lose billions on investments....yet cause shes hy friend I spot her.

 

Doubt the greek has cash to find that friendly.

 

It ok Leo, I'm going to split with all my four kids and place parachutes for my friends (not the morons or rich ones).  It's time to leave Canada.  Don't hold a bag too long my spanky.  Since you are the same as a Lebanese kid, no sense in telling you that.  It's shit your own parent won't tell you.  What you think Canada will look like and what the Irish think it will look like are two different stories.

 

Hopeully boston keeps their boats above shore...I'm out of here weather the communists or the fascists win next election.  Does matter.  You should understand your life is over those tiny ponds to the south.  But since you have no clue, cousins or "honour" what does it matter that your cousin gets skunked.

 

To all canucks:  We piss, bitch and moan about how the world is unfair.  It isn't.  Got clubbed in a G20 meeting.  Guess what?  You're not dead because they believed you have something to say another day.

Want to change it.  Kill people.

Since you weren't killed the first time around, guess what?  You get to extend the benefits of NOT KILLING.

 

So...anyone have an idea other than a working one?

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 01:37 | 1187062 Bearish News
Bearish News's picture

Damnit, I came here to say basically the same thing... "Surely they're mega-long precious gold and silver, no worries".

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 02:47 | 1187128 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

Face it teachers, do the math -- umm, you can do the math cain't ya??

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 09:46 | 1187755 Jay Gould Esq.
Jay Gould Esq.'s picture

Only 21% ? A simple solution: Put it all in Lululemon, like all hedge fund cognoscenti.

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_2p82CctBqkk/TGswB9nvMuI/AAAAAAAABqc/fP1ESKcTno...

Tue, 04/19/2011 - 22:12 | 1186592 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Damn.  They better buy some silver.  Not sure gold is going to cut it, unless they go all in.

Tue, 04/19/2011 - 22:38 | 1186660 Montgomery Burns
Montgomery Burns's picture

AGQ  (2x silver)

Tue, 04/19/2011 - 23:43 | 1186850 tiger7905
tiger7905's picture

Latest from Charles Nenner, see's silver taking a break medium term.

http://goldandsilverlinings.com/?p=739

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 03:25 | 1187149 Popo
Popo's picture

When everyone believes something is going up (or down) is usually when max carnage happens.

...there are some serious neophyte investors around here that think silver 'always goes up'.

Here's a tip: there is no asset class for which that it true. Not one. None. Invest responsibly people....

Tue, 04/19/2011 - 22:12 | 1186593 paddy0761
paddy0761's picture

Better buy some gold then, eh?

Tue, 04/19/2011 - 22:13 | 1186595 High Plains Drifter
High Plains Drifter's picture

where is leo?  he knows everything....

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 00:14 | 1186929 UninterestedObserver
UninterestedObserver's picture

He was busy posting some crap article about the VIX 

Tue, 04/19/2011 - 22:17 | 1186603 High Plains Drifter
High Plains Drifter's picture

http://www.fox8.com/news/wjw-news-mcdonalds-hiring-arrests,0,6962139.story

i don't know where to put this, so i guess it goes here. its just too damn funny in a sad sort of way. people fighting over jobs at macdonalds. is this what we are about now? good grief......

Tue, 04/19/2011 - 22:25 | 1186627 lynnybee
lynnybee's picture

yes, it's call the "race to the bottom" , courtesy of WALL ST. & WASHINGTON D.C. policy over the past 30 years.    drive down those wages, outsource 8,000,000 jobs (with more to come unless we go into revolution).    What the hell did they expect would happen !!  it was all planned & deliberate, we are expendable.   

 

Tue, 04/19/2011 - 22:26 | 1186637 High Plains Drifter
High Plains Drifter's picture

i got out of the big city in 2006. i thought it would happen pretty fast. so far, nothing yet, but i think it is coming. not sure when though. i made some mistakes trying to put a date on it before so now, I just wait, but I know it is coming. The cities will burn.

Tue, 04/19/2011 - 22:35 | 1186658 KickIce
KickIce's picture

Sans the bailouts you were pretty much on the money.  If I have learned anything out of this mess it is to never under estimate the ability of politicians to kick the can down the road.

Our economy/government is like a boulder supported by toothpicks.  When it goes it will do so quickly.

Tue, 04/19/2011 - 22:44 | 1186670 knukles
knukles's picture

Blubber supported by us toothpicks?

Tue, 04/19/2011 - 22:51 | 1186691 KickIce
KickIce's picture

Or in Pelosi's case, botox.

Tue, 04/19/2011 - 23:01 | 1186706 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

Yup. That was the plan. And they got more than they wanted: deflation. So now their thinking is not "how do we restore the real economy", it's "how can we create artificial inflation to mask the deflation?"

Tue, 04/19/2011 - 22:18 | 1186609 tickhound
tickhound's picture

QEPublicPension

fixed

Tue, 04/19/2011 - 22:20 | 1186617 johngaltfla
johngaltfla's picture

But don't worry, there is no municipal bond crisis coming.

The CNBC Infomercial Channel told me so.

Tue, 04/19/2011 - 22:28 | 1186631 KickIce
KickIce's picture

Another reason for QE3, the state's unfunded liabilities will skyrocket without it, and why the unions are pumping DC for every dollar they can.

Tue, 04/19/2011 - 22:25 | 1186633 duo
duo's picture

Why we need QE3.  Better a $10 loaf of bread than a pension shortfall.

Tue, 04/19/2011 - 23:48 | 1186856 Freddie
Freddie's picture

+1

You may need a wheelbarrow full of Obam notes for a loaf of bread soon.

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 00:35 | 1186982 Slipmeanother
Slipmeanother's picture

they try and steal your wheelbarrow

Tue, 04/19/2011 - 22:29 | 1186639 PulauHantu29
PulauHantu29's picture

They NEED a 21% return....think of all the other funds that performed less stellar then UT's Teachers' Fund.....they will NEED an 80% return.

This is why a Whopper of a QE3 will be had to keep these funds from going Belly Up...imho.

Tue, 04/19/2011 - 22:33 | 1186647 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

QE is guranteed then.  "Or not."  I still feel like "at best we're 50/50" no matter what given the simply "point blank" AWESOME logic of this argument.  That is why I prefer the "illogic of money."  Do i have to explain "what happens when you wave a red flag in front of bull?"  why?  "is the bull a slave because that's SUPPOSE to be a STOP SIGN?"  they say "he loses everytime."  i agree with that.  sometimes though "he kills that phucker with the red flag" and the crowd goes friggin WILD.  and then he "gets a cool pad in the Spanish country-side with all the hotties he wants--and even some he doesn't!"  and honestly--wouldn't you want that?  I mean "c'mon on over here Soledad O'brien and give this bull a little love."  Just SOUNDS cool, doesn't it?

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 00:15 | 1186936 cornedmutton
cornedmutton's picture

Puff, puff, pass.

Tue, 04/19/2011 - 22:34 | 1186653 SilverRhino
SilverRhino's picture

21% yield?   Better buy some silver bitches.   ($44 (Ag current) / $29 (Ag 1/1/2011) = 51% YTD.  

Nothing else is even in the same ballpark.

Tue, 04/19/2011 - 22:33 | 1186655 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

Greek two years are at 20%.  I agree "it shouldn't be that easy."

Tue, 04/19/2011 - 22:47 | 1186674 knukles
knukles's picture

Where's Harry when we need his recommendation?

Tue, 04/19/2011 - 23:06 | 1186722 topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture

I havent seen the real harry in a long time. He shouldnt be so sensitive. Come back harry wanger.

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 00:05 | 1186898 knukles
knukles's picture

Now that's mean. 

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