This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.
These Bears Don't Hibernate
Confused about the market? Caught short this summer? Confused when to lock in recent gains after seeing your IRA get cut in half? Why not follow the big boys who were right both on the way down and back up?
Charles Nenner, former Goldman Sachs market timing analyst, uses cycles, technical analysis, and a macro approach to time myriad markets. He called for a 2007 market top at around Dow 14,300. In 2008, he warned of a 30%+ decline in equities and in February of this year, he called for a large rally to take us to S&P 1000.
Robert Prechter, founder of Elliott Wave International, uses Elliott Wave Principles, cycle theory, and investor sentiment to gauge market turning points. In summer 2007, less than three months before the all-time stock market top, Prechter issued a short recommendation and didn’t cover until February 23 of this year, days before the March lows, as he predicted a large bear bounce to S&P 950ish.
Bob Janjuah, RBS chief credit strategist, issued a “stock crash alert” in June of last year, predicting a market crash and credit event in September 2008. He then predicted a large “relief rally” early this summer.
So what do all these people have in common? Besides their past predictions?
Their current predictions.
Charles Nenner believes we have topped out and will be retesting lows. Prechter prognosticates a market top in August, beginning the next wave down of this bear market that he believes will cause the S&P to end up below 400. Janjuah predicts a sharp move down starting late August, possibly culminating in an S&P under 600.
Called the massive equities decline in 2008? Check.
Called the bear bounce in spring-summer 2009? Check.
Calling for another massive move down this fall? Check.
I called July 4 of last year the top of crude oil, May 20 a short trigger in equities, September 15 a crash trigger, and January 5 of this year a short trigger. I called for a bounce at Dow 6500, expecting a large sell off in mid-late April to continue the decline. I missed most of this rally, besides a few long positions here and there, so I don’t have the track record as the bears above. But you can bet their analysis provides confluence to mine. I called early August around 1015 to be the top. We will see how that plays out.
»
- 7094 reads
- Printer-friendly version
- Send to friend
- advertisements -
My gut tells me these guys are right; public realization of FDIC troubles will collapse confidence again soon. Don't know how long they can keep this under the radar.
I certainly qualify as "dumb money", but I have to imagine there's another sqeeze (or two, or three), or at least some tests of the gap left before the music quits. Irrational v. solvent, after all.
Maybe "scared money" is a better descriptor; actually haven't traded in 3 months since taking profits from Oct lows (still holding some small potatoes REIT losers which may become heirlooms or tp). Didn't see any metrics above for scaredeycats; going fishing this week, let me know how it turns out.
The talking heads and boobs on the teevee say that folks aren't really putting on new shorts at least as of last week. Couple that observation with heavy volume on down days, and these downdrafts seem to be dominated by good ol fashioned selling. You cannot squeeze that which is not short.
http://www.contrarianprofits.com/articles/10-reasons-to-be-a-bear-right-... and don't forget doug kass either...
S&P historic p/e at 145? What else do you need to know?
bob janjuah was also screaming to short credit / equities through 2003, 04, 05, 06
proof that a broken clock is right twice a day
you would have been broke many times over following his calls.....except for last year
agreed. calling tops and bottoms and market turns, well ... on a long enough time line reality rules. it's just not possible to do it consistently.
looks to me like these particular bears are overdue for a little dose of reality.
As of last Thursday, S&P's data based on 91% companies reported, showed a PE of 25 based on operating earnings and 127x based on "as reported earnings", these are based on S&P 500 at 919 (as of end of 2Q ie 30 Jun 2009). Maybe now that everyone has done his share of trash-buying and maxed out equities allocation, finally the portfolio guys have time to sit down to do some portfolio review and made some observations et voila!
keep shorting the stock market
we're gonna close July gaps on all indexes, S&P 905-907
Actually, Prechter called for much larger rally than 950--The wavers are still calling for up to Dow 10,300-10,500 and S&P 1050-1080 to complete this bounce. But the usual caveat is, it depends on the wave structure. One interesting note, when the July head and shoulders was being talked about EVERYWHERE Steve Hochberg at EW suggested that the market would not break down because too many people expected it and that the next wave up could be imminent. It happened within 24 hours.
I also predicted the sept 08 crash and the march 09 rally. I also did not believe the predictions that it would go all the way to 1000 and beyond. lol.
The problem is that (I assume) you dont know what the Federal Reserve is going to do. They are already breaking the law by buying over a trillion dollars in crap paper that is not backed by any sort of govt guarantee. They are, in essence, openly monetizing, and then openly lying about it. So it is now an indesputable fact that the "mob" really does run the market. Think they can't move the market? What happens if they decide to buy 5 trillion more in crap mortgage paper? It's already breaking the law, and nothing comes of it. So why wouldnt they do it again?
I called the 6,600 low in January 2009 -
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article8365.html
Confirmed the market bottom in Mid March 09 -
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article9435.html
Where next ? -
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article12236.html
Though as ever, forecasts without detailed accompanying analysis are pretty much worthless.
Nadeem Walayat
Editor, The Market Oracle.
Also the above is not accurate on Prechter, he remained bearish despite covering shorts i.e. Vague on the rally - Robert Pretcher's Greatest Trade Ever! Stocks Bear Market Could See Spike Higher - http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article9153.html
On Bloomberg TV, Robert Prechter advises his clients to close their short positions and prepare for a possible strong spike higher as stock prices hit 11 year lows as investor sentiment indicators reached extreme bearish levels. However he also sees at least another 2 years for the stocks bear market before it bottoms due to the wave count and earnings fundamentals. Extreme investor sentiment indicators also point to a significant top in Gold and Treasury Bonds.
Thank you so much Nadeem! Your comment here meant a lot!