TheTechnicalTake: TBT

I
would describe the current price action in the equity market as
meaningless.  It doesn't impart any information to me as the dip is always
bought albeit on persistently shorter and shorter time frames.  On the
other hand, long term Treasury yields are on the rise and breaking out from
their current trading range.  Rising yields will be a headwind for equities,
and are likely a sign of inflation worries.

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TheTechnicalTake tbt

Comments

[Nnthnt1]

i wrote a post about a much better technique to be long volatility & upside interest rates.

TBT option market is too small, prices too high.

Here ill explain why shorting corporate bonds is better:

http://volatilitysmirk.blogspot.com/2011/02/coming-us-sovereign-debt-cri...

[topcallingtroll]

You are a brave man to buy bonds now. An easier play has been to buy ung every time it goes 5.60 ish. And hold on till you get nervous. I always have bailed at 5.90 and missed some gains. We might get another chance to play it this season.

[GovernmentMule]

Long TBT PM's and food...

[Myshkin]

I tend to agree, HitTheFan.  I'm close to buying TBT... but not quite yet.  Buying TLT here with a tight stop.  And certainly at some point this trendline will break and TBT will be a huge winner.  But not yet, imho.  

That said, treasuries selling off during the Egypt issues doesn't bode well for the reversal.. but there are about 5% bond bulls right now.  Usually a pretty good time to buy.

[Myshkin]

I tend to agree, HitTheFan.  I'm close to buying TBT... but not quite yet.  Buying TLT here with a tight stop.  

That said, treasuries selling off during the Egypt issues doesn't bode well for the reversal.. but there are about 5% bond bulls right now.  Usually a pretty good time to buy.

[HitTheFan]

Fake-out, buy bonds now, like Japan, yields only heading one way...down.

[HitTheFan]

Fake-out, buy bonds now, like Japan, yields only heading one way...down.