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They’re Shooting All the Generals
Those looking for guidance on the medium term trend in the market better take a look at the best of breed, benchmark stocks for the leading sectors; the companies traders call “the generals”. I am talking about Goldman Sacks (GS), Apple (AAPL), Freeport McMoRan (FCX), and Google (GOOG). They are all telling us that the market peaked last February, not on April 29, as the indexes are suggesting.
When the charts for the stock prices of the best run companies in the most profitable industries are rolling over like the Bismarck, you know that it is time to bail out. That is why I have been a seller of rallies, not a buyer of dips for the past three months.
If you are one of those cynical, glass is half full, tough to convince investors, then take a look at the chart of the financials ETF (XLF). It also peaked in February and has been in a clear downtrend since. There is no way the S&P 500 can make progress when one of its heaviest sectors is suffering from Montezuma’s revenge.
Still unconvinced? Check out the bottom chart of trend lines for the S&P 500, when I lifted from my friend, Dennis Gartman of The Gartman Letter. It indicates that we broke a steep trend line in February and are imminently about to break a much more shallow trend line this week.
The bottom line? The best case is that we are nearly three weeks into a 10% correction that will take us to the 200 day moving average for the (SPX) at 1,234; the worst case is that a new bear market has started. Look out below!
To see the data, charts, and graphs that support this research piece, as well as more iconoclastic and out-of-consensus analysis, please visit me at www.madhedgefundtrader.com . There, you will find the conventional wisdom mercilessly flailed and tortured daily, and my last two years of research reports available for free. You can also listen to me on Hedge Fund Radio by clicking on “This Week on Hedge Fund Radio” in the upper right corner of my home page.
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Druckenmiller said he knew his long position was wrong the day before the 87 crash when he saw that the soldiers had all broken down - i.e. the generals follow the soldiers. But I hope you're right.
GS should have gone out of business and many should be in front of a jury
STFR - Sell the Fucking Rallies (bitchezz.)
If the system is going to fail this summer then they have nothing to lose and will open the spigot wide. That will change the timeline, which is already unknowable.
Everything takes longer than you think.
Farmland is nice, but that involves risk too. Without enough gold to defend it, property owners are likely to surrender their land to rapacious politicians who will raise revenue by using the tax system to redistribute wealth. Even the wealthy will not be safe.
There may not even be a country as we know it in a few years. Find any Russian old enough to remember and ask if they thought the USSR would disappear just a few years before it crashed. I'll bet none of them did.
Farmland would be really, really, nice. But protecting your crops from millions of hungry people is not possible. Additionally, history has also shown us that the government takes what it wants.
You might want to horde food like you horde PMs, because that is the only insurance of being fed. Money and food is easy to put away for a rainy day. It's a risk free trade. If you lose the bet, and don't need that insurance, you can still eat the food.
Survivors think in terms of expectancy, like traders. It's all risk vs reward.
Oh, and don't forget the zombie repellant
"Farmland is nice, but that involves risk too. Without enough gold to defend it, property owners are likely to surrender their land to rapacious politicians who will raise revenue by using the tax system to redistribute wealth. Even the wealthy will not be safe."
hence, the importance of like-minded, well armed, neighbors.
My SP500 target is zero in gold terms. Measuring anything else is voodoo. Central banks are loading up on gold because gold revaluation is coming this summer when Greece and Spain collapse.
You won't care too much about SP500 since the zombies will be banging on your gate looking for revenue. You call them politicians I call them zombies.
My farmland is ready...................... Is yours?
Every company in the SP500 will file for bankruptcy.
Your crops will feed the thousands of people who will come searching for food. Do you have a machine gun to kill all of them? Can you stay awake 24/7 to watch over your crops and livestock?
How low will it have to go to get the green light for more QE?
Most people don't like throwing wild guesses around so 10% is probably low. I don't see the political pressure against trashing the dollar easing for a mere correction. This market was pumped up with a QE bicycle pump so it will be simple to open the valve stem and release the air. There's is plenty of bad news coming that we can already see, companies passing on price increases, Europe falling apart, the perennial state and local budget crises. If anyone thinks California won't go three months without a budget and be on the verge of default by fall I've got a bridge you can invest in. Add in one or two events we can't see- terrorist attack, category 5 hurricane, earthquake or such and there will be plenty of headlines to spin. The question is will they want to spin them to get more QE or will they minimize them to soften the impact. If its outside of biotech or real estate my opinion's not worth all that much but I vote for the "let's get more QE" option. S&P below 1000 by the end of November. That's when they wring their hands and say they reluctantly think they'll have to restart the liquidity machine. Just a wild ass guess.
So if QE? doesn't come what will you do? Hanging from your unidementional position on Qe could get you into a tent in Dallas.
Be careful with your thinking it isn't that cut and dry
Wild ass guesses tend to be that way and I have no real or fiat money riding on it.
'...when I lifted from my friend, Dennis Gartman of The Gartman Letter'
Pardon me while I puke.You 2 are the spawn of evil and lies.
DUMB AND DUMBER !!!
Technical Paradise
http://deadcatbouncing.blogspot.com/
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fWacc6L9NoU
my s and p target bottom is about 1200 as well. if the correction from last april rematches the same as this one. I would like to remind viewers that there was a nice bounce after Qe ended, so I think there is a bounce in this market as well.
I know the quants have programmed 1400 into the computer, not sure anymore if data can actually prevent this.