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Things That Make You Go Hmmm: "My Name Is Grant Williams And I’m a Precious Metals Bug"

Tyler Durden's picture




 

From Things That Make You Go Hmmm, April 30

My name is Grant Williams and I’m a precious metals bug.

There. I’ve said it.

It feels good to get that off my chest.

Of course, those amongst you who have been riding alongside me these past few years probably already had a sneaking suspicion that was the case and, I imagine, several more of you are now tutting, rolling your eyes and muttering “I KNEW it. Where’s that ‘Unsubscribe’ button?” (bottom of the last page – no offence taken). Well today, we’re going to talk about precious metals again I’m afraid, but in a broader sense if that helps at all. For readers who are over the whole precious metals thing, there’s a nice cartoon on the last page and you’ll find several stories about alternate subjects scattered throughout pages 7 to 15). For those of you still reading at this point, join me inside the recesses of my mind. Please keep your hands and arms inside the carriage at all times.

Whenever I look at an idea as either a potential trade or a possible thematic shift, the very first question I ask myself is ‘does this idea make sense?’. Plain old common sense. Nothing to do with the numbers or the likely quantum of any associated move, but would the idea seem reasonable if presented to someone with either zero, or at best a very limited background in finance?

Whilst stories around individual stocks can fulfill this criterion reasonably regularly, they often operate in confined parameters (a particular geography or a particular market segment for example) and so an idea is easier to explain and simple to quantify. It is much harder to find bigger picture, macro ideas that make secular sense because, for the most part, these ideas– but it is these big picture shifts that contain the possibility to make real money.

To illustrate this point, one of my favourite charts of all time demonstrates how, by making a single trade in each decade, it was possible to take $35 in 1970 and turn it into $159,591 in 2008. Of course, had you then made a 5th decision and completed the circle by reinvesting that $159,591 back into precious metals - this time silver - in 2008 (and, to ensure nobody accuses me of picking the low price we’ll take the year high of $21, recorded the day Bear Stearns disappeared), you would, this week, have turned your $35 into a staggering $372,379.

Five simple, considered decisions over a forty year period for a gain of a little over 1,000,000%.

Easy..... Kind of.

The pressure to chase things, to follow momentum or to be ‘involved’ is a considerable influence on the decision-making process of most investors. It’s easy to get caught up in trying to pick interim ‘tops’ in a rising market with the intention of buying back on pullbacks to add a little vig to any gains being made. Get it right and you feel as though you’re a seer - possessed with vision many hope for but few achieve; get it wrong however and the consequences are potentially far, far worse. The chances are you’ll find yourself sitting on the sidelines watching your great idea make other people very rich because you just can’t pull the trigger to buy something 5% higher than you sold it - or 10%, or 20% - and for what? Because you tried to game a quick 5% extra by proving you could time the market?

I have lost count of how many calls I have had from friends of mine who have bought either gold or silver at some point in the bull run (sadly, most were late to the party because they just didn’t believe the story - but we’ll get to that later) and wanted to know whether it was time to take some profit. I’ve lost count of the number of calls, but the questions, in essence, were the same:

“Silver’s run really hard here. Should I sell some? What if it pulls back?”

“Gold’s over $1,500 now and I bought it at $1,200 - should I sell it and look to buy it back when it corrects. It’s gotta correct, right?”

My answer to both questions was the same. “What if it doesn’t?”

Yes, silver is extended. Yes, gold has performed incredibly well. But the point here is to understand WHY you bought them.

If you bought silver for a trade then go ahead and sell it - depending on your entry point it has been a hell of a trade. If you bought gold as a trade then the same thing applies. If it DOES pull back and you want to play again you can. If it doesn’t, then you still made some money. But if you bought either of the precious metals as an INVESTMENT, then you need to ask yourself a whole lot more questions before you call your broker, visit your bullion dealer or place an order to sell electronically.

The reasons for buying precious metals are myriad, and their intrinsic worth will continue to be debated - probably for centuries - but, like it or not, based upon 5,000 years of history, gold IS money. Silver IS money. You can argue it. You can flat out denounce it, but there will always be somebody happy to take your gold and silver off you at whatever market price you may deem ridiculous. You can’t win. Nobody can unilaterally declare the idea of gold and silver as stores of value err..... well, valueless.

Last year Mark Dice went to the beach in California and tried to sell a one-ounce solid gold Canadian Maple Leaf coin (worth, at the time, $1,100) to passers-by for $50 cash.

No takers.

This was one of my favourite exchanges:

Dice: “Wanna buy it?”

Dude: “No thank you”

Dice: “Twenty bucks?”

Dude: “Not for me.”

Dice: “It’s Canadian.”

Dude: “Oh, definitely not”

But the best part of the video is when Dice tries to sell the coin to a passer-by who has a live parrot casually sitting on his shoulder. When you see a man in the street wearing a tropical bird as a fashion accessory look at someone trying to sell him a 1-oz gold coin worth $1,100 as though HE’S crazy - you’ve pretty much hit rock bottom. (If you want to watch the video, it’s HERE but PLEASE... no emails about Dice’s views on anything else - to me it’s just an interesting video)

But enough about parrots and passers-by - they are mere distractions from the point I am trying to make here.

In a big picture sense, as you can clearly see from the chart, left, owning precious metals (in this case gold) has been the right trade for the last ten years - it has been one of those once-in-a-decade decisions that, if you had made and stuck with, would have made you real returns. However, the volatility that has been evident during periods of those ten years is such that many people were, to use Richard Russell’s analogy, ‘shaken from the bull’. Many people saw 10% corrections or even the big shakeout after 2008 and, with very few believing gold was anything but the next bubble, they dumped their holdings - convinced either a ‘major correction’ was under way or just around the corner or that the bull run in gold had ended and the bubble had burst. Many were selling with a view to buying back and many were selling fearing a return to $300 gold was not only possible, but probable. The ‘big trade’ was all-but forgotten in the panic of deleveraging.

Many who sold have yet to buy their gold back and have missed out as gold has more than doubled from its late-2008 lows.

In Bud Conrad’s chart, he shows how a switch from one asset class to another once every ten years would have been all that was required and it just so happened that, at each crucial juncture, another asset presented itself as the next ‘big trade’. The danger is that, in following Bud’s example to the letter, especially now precious metals have run for ten years, it would be easy to switch out of them and into the next ‘big trade’. But what is the next big trade?

It could be a short trade in US Treasuries, as many believe (certainly when something is at zero and can’t, in absolute terms at least, go below that level - in this case the discount rate - it is a pretty safe assumption which way it will ultimately be headed). It could be a long position in crude oil or a basket of commodities if you believe in all or part of the ‘Peak Everything’ theory laid out beautifully in the great Jeremy Grantham’s latest letter - which you will find HERE. (As an aside, if you HAVEN’T read it yet - I recommend you take the time to do so as it is a truly marvellous piece of work - even by Jeremy’s lofty standards - and one you will doubtless want to read again at some point.)

But here’s the thing. What if the big trade is buying precious metals - again?

At no point does Bud Conrad say you can’t have your money in the same asset class for consecutive decades - in fact, Bud doesn’t lay out the rules at all because there aren’t any. It’s about finding the ‘big trade’, making sure the logic of it is sound to you and then sitting with it until it has either run its course, or you feel that a better opportunity for long-term gain has presented itself.

Has the precious metals trade run its course? Well, I guess it’s possible - but let’s look at the factors that are affecting the price of what, for the specific purposes of this part of our program, we will refer to as ‘monetary metals’.

Until 1971, gold backed every dollar in circulation. Period.

Behind every $35 in paper money, in a vault in the United States, sat an ounce of gold. Quiet, immutable, stoic. The gold couldn’t be printed at will or created out of thin air. The idea of dropping gold from helicopters would have seemed downright dangerous or overtly stupid. Of course, as it turns out, dropping paper money from helicopters has proven equally dangerous - particularly to the value of the dollar itself which broke through 73 this week and has now lost roughly 90% of its purchasing power since the decision was taken by Nixon to shut the gold window.

Never were the words of Nixon’s Treasury Secretary, John Connally, more apropos than today:

“...[the dollar] is our currency, but your problem”

Since that day, with the restraint of a gold-backed dollar removed, the amount of dollars in cirulation has steadily increased until, as the waves of 2008 crashed upon the world’s shores, it absolutely exploded. The graph below shows the adjusted monetary base, with the near-vertical updrafts representing QE1 and QE2.

My friends Paul Brodsky and Lee Quaintance of QBAMCO recently published parts II & III of their paper entitled ‘Apropos of Everything’ and I would recommend everyone who reads this to email Paul and ask him to send you a copy of all three parts as, together, they comprise one of the single best reads I have seen in years. In fact, if you only have time in your busy day to either finish reading this or dig into Paul and Lee’s exceptional writing then let me help you out: STOP READING THIS AND EMAIL PAUL. NOW. 

In ‘Apropos of Everything’, Paul and Lee revisit their ‘Shadow Gold Price’ which is a measure of what returning to a gold-backed dollar would mean to the price of gold:

In a report distributed to our investors in December 2008 we divided Federal Reserve Bank Liabilities by US official gold holdings and dubbed it “The Shadow Gold Price”. A few months later we began using the more conservative denominator, the Monetary Base, in our calculation. As it turned out, dividing the US Monetary Base by US official gold holdings happened to be the very formula used in the Bretton Woods system to establish the global fixed monetary exchange rate. Our logic was confirmed by long convention...

The “Flat” column in the table above shows our current SGP, which implies the substantial devaluation of purchasing power of the US dollar that has already occurred. Are we nuts? Are we asserting gold should be valued at $10,000/ounce when it is trading around $1,500/ounce in London and New York?

The SGP’s purpose is to provide a sense of magnitude as to how much the US dollar has already been devalued and how much further it may be devalued. (Obviously there can be no guarantees about future pricing.) We believe the Shadow Gold Price provides the intellectual framework for the magnitude of necessary future global currency devaluation. We feel most comfortable with this metric for two practical reasons: 1) there is recent precedent for its use and 2) it actually produces a lower figure than othervaluation metrics that include systemic credit in their calculations...

To put this table in perspective, the Fed already increased the US Monetary Base over 200% since 2008, from about $850 billion ($3,251 implied SGP) to an estimated $2.6 trillion (following the completion of QE2). It is important to note that the Monetary Base only constitutes systemic bank reserves held at the Fed and currency in circulation. It does not include upwards of $70 trillion in US dollar-denominated claims, a significant portion of which conceivably must be ultimately be repaid in money from the Monetary Base that does not yet exist.

And there, in a nutshell, is the ‘big trade’ in gold.

How do the world’s central banks find a way out of the dire straits in which they find themselves? Faltering economic growth (look at this week’s US GDP number), insolvent banking systems in multiple insolvent sovereign countries (you know who you are), plummeting consumer confidence (Japan and Germany the latest examples of this phenomenon), crippling debt levels at both the national and individual levels (higher US deficit ceiling anybody?), spiralling inflation (no matter WHAT ‘core’ numbers may tell you) and their favourite (and some would say ‘only’) tool to fight it, namely interest rates at or close enough to zero to make them almost ineffective.

Fear of all these issues amongst investors has driven them to what they consider ‘safe’ money. Money that can’t be manufactured at will (though it CAN be confiscated - but more of that another day) and that will protect their purchasing power.

Yes, there is definitely some speculative froth in the monetary metal prices (nowhere more obvious than silver at the moment) but, structurally, there are more reasons why monetary metals could well be the next, next ‘big trade’ and that resides in the difference between the futures price and that of the metals themselves.

Historically, the monetary metals futures contracts were used primarily by gold producers to hedge their exposure to fluctuations in the gold price and/or to lock in prices against their forward production. Simple. There have been all sorts of conspiracy theories about central banks leasing their gold holdings in order to keep the price of gold down, thus validating their fiat currencies, and of bullion banks manipulating the futures prices to make profits from the technical funds, but, again, we will leave those aside today.

In August 1999, John Hathaway of Tocqueville Gold Fund wrote an essay called The Golden Pyramid (I have linked to it in a previous edition of Things That Make You Go Hmmm..... but in case you didn’t see it, or didn’t have the time to read it, I would urge you, if you have any interest in the monetary metals, to do so. You will find it here)

In his essay, John lays out quite clearly how what he calls the ‘Golden Pyramid’ works:

The old currency gold/pyramid has been replaced by a little understood labyrinth of paper claims against gold. Responsible senior officials of mining companies, central banks, and bullion banks cannot begin to understand the internal mechanics in order to make appropriate judgements of risk. There are few published figures, no reserve requirements, no supervision or regulation, and no accountability. It is the private domain of bullion dealers, central banks, and mining companies. The credit worthiness of the old currency/gold pyramid was quantifiable. The credit worthiness of the new pyramid can only be an educated guess. Our guess is that it is bankrupt.

The gold derivatives pyramid is a vigorous free market creature. It cannot be put down with a simple declaration that the paper is no longer redeemable in gold, as governments did with currency. It is a short selling scheme that has become a trap from which few short sellers will escape. Paper claims in the form of derivatives far exceed the underlying physical metal on which they are based. The trust, which balances this new pyramid, is based on false assumptions and lack of information. Paper gold claims have proliferated at a pace rivaling any government printing press. A surfeit of paper gold has driven down the price of the physical on which it is based.

The structure can survive as long as bullion dealers, the mining community and the financial media subscribe to the bearish case. But the position of short sellers is precarious. This is true whether gold stays at current levels, or drops below $200/oz. The point is, they will be unable to realize their paper profits, and stand to lose money on their positions in the aggregate. The compound miscalculations on which the gold market is based rank with the blowup of the yen carry trade in 1998. The yen carry disaster illustrates how over-investment and near unanimity of market opinion can lead to a vicious squeeze. Compared to the yen, gold’s liquidity is microscopic. The coming squeeze will lead to a several hundred dollar rally and a permanent change in attitudes towards gold.

Read that last sentence again.

The coming squeeze will lead to a several hundred dollar rally and a permanent change in attitudes towards gold.

Many casual readers of John’s work would have found that statement difficult to accept in 1999. They would have, in fact, dismissed his words simply because the outcome he was proposing - a rise in price of several hundred dollars - would have seemed extremely unlikely with Gold trading around $300. And yet, the beauty of reading this essay now, 12 years later, is that you can clearly see a simple idea that, with the benefit of hindsight, makes complete sense.

The trick comes in trying to find these simple, clear ideas WITHOUT the benefit of hindsight.

So, to recap:

Sovereign governments are awash with debt; several are on the verge of inevitable default (you STILL know who you are), Central Banks around the world have printed trillions of units of their respective paper currencies in the past three years in an attempt to stimulate their moribund economies (which are either slowing in the case of the US and the UK, or are tipping back into recession like Japan), politicians are starting to finally understand that Austerity ISN’T Calvin Klein’s new cologne and are about to find out just how hard it will be to apply in the real sense, consumers are pulling in their heads and are more concerned about the future than at any point since the depths of the crisis in 2008, the housing market in the United States - Ground Zero for the debt-driven disasters that tipped the world on its head - has turned down once more and is about to make new lows just as a slew of Option ARM resets are due, inflation is starting to bite in a real way, not only in Asia, but in the West as well and all the REAL money that has ever been mined could STILL only fill a cube 67 feet in each direction (thanks for that, Warren).

Simple? Clear?

Full report:


Hmmm Apr 30 2011

 

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Sat, 04/30/2011 - 16:40 | 1224416 DavidPierre
DavidPierre's picture

Remember when...

Remember way back when... if you spoke your mind and said something crazy like "Gold really should be trading at $600 or more" people would just laugh or roll their eyes.

$50 Silver was a whole other story while trading for so many years between $4 and $7, a new high in Silver? $50? Never, not possible, can I give you the name of a good shrink?

Now trading a new highs (albeit suppressed) prices for both Gold and Silver that even 2-3 years ago were thought to NEVER be possible!

But there is a kicker, the Dollar although quite weak has still not totally collapsed and is still being propped up artificially to continue the facade of functionality.

What do you suppose Gold and Silver will do once the artificial support to the dollar gives way?

Again, many many smart people have been putting "Dollar price" forecasts out of $2,000, $5,000, $10,000 and more. Whatever the highest number is that you have EVER read is flat out wrong because, as Jim Sinclair says, "QE to infinity" is where we are headed. I completely agree with this concept as mathematically the U.S. (and the entire world for that matter) MUST inflate and print at rates ever greater and in an exponential fashion!

"Infinity". Think about this concept for a moment, "infinity". What does it really mean? Can it ever really be attained? Doesn't it really mean that something "goes on forever and has no end"?

Of course it does but the Treasury and Fed cannot borrow and print forever because markets will balk long before the "exponential stage" really gets going. The opposite of infinity is "0" or in other words NOTHING which is exactly where the Dollar is headed no matter what policy response is chosen from here.

"Remember when"... in the future people will look back $50 Silver and $1,500 Gold as if they were FREE.

These levels in the future will look far cheaper than $4 Silver and $250 Gold does now! This entire episode is all about the end of a financial and monetary system with no foundation.

"This is for all the marbles", it truly is. Wealth in paper has been created and believed in for nearly 100 years now, once we make the "jump" to the next monetary system, those holding real money assets will be the ones who accrue ALL THE MARBLES!

ALL of the paper wealth will accrue back to where it always belonged, into real money!

$100 days, $1,000 days $10,000 days will be commonplace IF they don't evaporate the Dollar for another currency. The future will be entirely about "revaluation". It is happening now but once the process goes exponential it will be too late.

Many many people believe it is already "too late" and Gold is "too high". It is not and you can still purchase Gold and Silver for paper currency. The day will come when physical metal will not be offered and paper not accepted, THAT is when it will be "too late"!

 Call it the "infinity zone" when no amount of paper currency will bring physical metal out of it's deep dark sleep and onto the market.

 Scary concept this "infinity thing"!

www.lemetropolecafe.com

Sat, 04/30/2011 - 17:20 | 1224456 GoinFawr
GoinFawr's picture

++

Sat, 04/30/2011 - 18:32 | 1224546 FaithEqualsZero
FaithEqualsZero's picture

Isn't it interesting how all the other metals rose about 2% on Friday. Yet silver was down. Seems as though the powrz diverted all power to the silver deflector shields in order to keep it under $50.

Sat, 04/30/2011 - 20:38 | 1224674 mogul rider
mogul rider's picture

ooookkaayyy

 

let me get back to you on that construct

Holy mother of pearl

It is different this time - LOL

 

It seems the Huffington Post lost anotehr reader just now

 

 

Sat, 04/30/2011 - 21:52 | 1224779 markmotive
markmotive's picture

Today is different...today's silver bull market is way behind the bull of the 1970s.

 

Chart: http://www.planbeconomics.com/2011/04/29/comparing-the-present-silver-bu...

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 05:07 | 1225126 e_goldstein
e_goldstein's picture

Vote Sarah Palin, bitchez?

 

Personally, I'm still long pitchforks and torches.

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 05:10 | 1225130 e_goldstein
e_goldstein's picture

and boiling vats of tar and dead geese. 

Sat, 04/30/2011 - 21:12 | 1224727 gall batter
gall batter's picture

"... confirmed by my coin dealer - he knows everything and is also a man of deep Christian faith."  hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha!  and ha!

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 05:25 | 1225138 Hephasteus
Hephasteus's picture

I'm just a simple texan christian..... With a price projection on silver.

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 09:04 | 1225257 ATM
ATM's picture

Your price projection is missing one simple attribute - time. When will silver hit your projection? Two months. EOY? next millenium?

I have a price projection too. Silver to infinity within 20 years when priced in dollars/euros/yen/pounds..., and probably much, much sooner but gold will be Infinity x 50.

Sat, 04/30/2011 - 21:22 | 1224742 Cui Bono
Cui Bono's picture

Hey Tex, Is your coin dealer J Noble Dagett?

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 15:46 | 1225841 rocker
rocker's picture

Poof.  I think Tex and the dealer just a magic carpet ride to the twilight zone.   Gone 

Sat, 04/30/2011 - 22:03 | 1224796 Bob
Bob's picture

Swagger for Christ, yo!  Honestly, I'm likin' it. 

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 16:45 | 1225931 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

Hey!  I figured it out.

It's JASON HOMMEL

I used to get his silver emails but couldn't stomach the bible thumping.

 

Jason Hommel's Bible Prophecy Study on the Pre Tribulation Rapture
Sat, 04/30/2011 - 22:28 | 1224819 Teamtc321
Teamtc321's picture

Gunslinger;

Can I suggest something to you, do some reading here. Meaning, just spend some time reading through all post on topic's that are interesting to you. Not everyone here is an atheist at all.

Not to be blunt or rude to you, but most people here have been following the world economic situation for a long time very very closely. I personally have built many company's from scratch. I personally have gained great knowledge from just reading what other's here on ZH have to say. Hope that you follow what I'm saying there, if not let me be a little clearer. It is very wize to learn from other's that are expert's or have vast knowledge in certain area's.

There is a simple old saying that goes a long way, "sometimes you need to just listen to what others are saying."

Take it for what it's worth TG.

Sat, 04/30/2011 - 23:07 | 1224855 DavidPierre
DavidPierre's picture

Sage advice from a wiseman !

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 01:29 | 1225014 jeff montanye
jeff montanye's picture

one needn't distinguish plural from possessive when building companies from scratch.

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 10:19 | 1225349 creighton_abrams
creighton_abrams's picture

once saw the word knife pluralized as knife's. awesome.

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 13:06 | 1225629 Richard Head
Richard Head's picture

Thanks for your contributions, 3 a-holes above.

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 16:48 | 1225933 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

Now you got one below as well.

We've got you surrounded.

Surrender!!

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 20:26 | 1226553 contagiousNY
contagiousNY's picture

Well said, TC and quite patiently as well, ur a better man than I. Texasgunslinger, it cant be clearer or more reasonably presented than that. Maybe you will realize Tex that coming on this site prosthetizing and trying to "save" members is like me walking into your church in the middle of a mass and shouting "so who thinks silver goes to 50 next week?" It just wont get you the love you are clearly missing.

  And have you considered that that son of a bitch coin dealer sent you here to soak up some pro PM (precious metals) sentiment so that....why, so that you will buy more coins from the bastard! But unfortunately for you its alot more than what you or that SOB knew about here and you are in way over your head for now, so STFU (shut the fuck up) and read without commenting for a really bitchin long time. May God give you the strength to keep your yapper shut and maybe learn a thing or 2.

Sat, 04/30/2011 - 22:34 | 1224833 Tail Dogging The Wag
Tail Dogging The Wag's picture

Kindly keep religion to yourself.

Sat, 04/30/2011 - 22:57 | 1224852 Al Gorerhythm
Al Gorerhythm's picture

How do you kick an internet god botherer off your porch? Is there a "Do Not Post" register we can send these interlopers to?

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 02:04 | 1225030 Tail Dogging The Wag
Tail Dogging The Wag's picture

Kick 'em lightly where it hurts.

Sorry for the spam, folks, but the people cannot eat iPad:

http://www.thorssoncapital.com/

Land Investments / Farmland in Panama

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 11:39 | 1225476 tamboo
tamboo's picture

satan's where it's at babe, just ask benny or obongo.

http://iamthewitness.com/books/Andrew.Carrington.Hitchcock/Synagogue.of....

Sat, 04/30/2011 - 22:59 | 1224860 goldfish1
goldfish1's picture

The best way to predict the future is to create it, and you can create any life you want when Jesus is in your heart.

When asked why he refused from the prize of one million dollars, Perelman responded: "I know how to control the Universe. Why would I run to get a million, tell me?"

http://english.pravda.ru/science/tech/28-04-2011/117727-Grigori_Perelman...


Sun, 05/01/2011 - 01:32 | 1225016 kumquatsunite
kumquatsunite's picture

Seriously? I yam a person of deep Christian faith and I say he has no idea what he is talking about. Silver should actually be called Mistress Silver (dibs!) since Dr. Copper is already taken. Silver reflects nothing so much as factory orders and here we have factory orders going belly up in the wake (or should we be saying, the smoke?) of Japan.

Also, with the marriage of Prince William over the weekend, should any of you have taken a peak, you would have noticed a distinct and complete lack of bling showing up. No Beckham bling. No Queenly bling. Nice tiara, but not overly blingy. 

As to dollars going to infinity, pa shaw! There have been "replacement" dollars to keep some circulation going, but "new" dollars...not really. To say that you would have to say there is more money in US currency than ever before, and yet when we see the housing market, speaking of US currency in the broadest sense, all those cashed out digits that went into bank accounts and then were trasferred around to buy big screens and paved walkways, are also "new" dollars,and they be gone.

Silver. Sell in May and go go go away!.Gold too. Just saying. 

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 05:28 | 1225139 Hephasteus
Hephasteus's picture

Jesus. King of the sociopaths.

http://www.evilbible.com/Jesus_Lied.htm

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 13:32 | 1225670 DosZap
DosZap's picture

To interpret the sayings, first one must understand them.

The things of the Spirit are not , nor ever will be understood by the natural man.

Some read the scriptures, and fail to ask, Who,What,Where,When,Why.( they are are all not for every Christian).

To comprehend,or gain wisdom about ANY subject ,one must put much effort into it.

All declarations made by Christ were not meant for every Christian, and esp for all times, until time is no more.

Sites like that,tend to be on the Web for many reasons.

None are for your benefit, in eternity.This subject matter is not appropriate on this Forum IMHO, but before check out time, one best know & have made a decision.

There are no second chances.

 

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 06:17 | 1225159 fiftybagger
fiftybagger's picture

Absolutely shilltastic!  FYI, if he has no faith, he could hardly be your brother.  Did Jesus create any life he wanted?  How about Peter, upside down.  Or John, boiled in oil?  Sorry for responding to religious bait.  Care to swing again?

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 10:17 | 1225345 Absinthe Minded
Absinthe Minded's picture

I know many of you out there don't like The Bible thumping type, but 41 junks, have a heart people. I personally think a lot of you have faith but are afraid of being pigeon holed as some holier than thou type. I am a Christian and attend church regularly and am proud of it. There is no better way to raise your children with good morals and caring for others. Faith is not embarrassing, it is strength and the sooner you figure that out the better off you will be. I have a feeling we'll all be doing a lot more praying before long. Be thankful He will accept you unconditionally.
Junk away, cowards.

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 12:43 | 1225584 DraginDickHedge
DraginDickHedge's picture

My most humble apologies to all more prescient ZH'ers for my defense of this idiot Troll the other day.  I was wrong, yet again.  And for the record, I happen to love Jesus; He is my savior...junk me if you want...I only point this out to emphasize that it is not Gunslinger's religious poit of view...he is just plain STUPID and not even an interesting Troll trying to pull our chains like RT, the departed HarryW and others.  IMHO, this is NOT a forum to discuss religious views.  It is also not a site where "cocktail party etiquete" is followed.  Political views are intrinsic to fully understanding the root of this insanity. 

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 14:45 | 1225759 Ruffcut
Ruffcut's picture

I am a spiritual person.  When I bought my silver, I felt nothing. WHen I see my value of holdings go, I still feel nothing.

It is a hedge for a bad ending.

No wonder why there are so many atheist, with someone's "faith" prediction for the price of silver.

"it will easier for a wealthy man to go thru an eye of a needle than into the kingdom of heaven", or something like that.

Oh, except us silver holders?

There is no celebration for the rise of silver and gold. It is only confirmation of worse things to come. Our holdings might barely protect wealth,let alone our lifes.

"pay off my house with one gold coin"

Yep, that's so fucking funny I shit and pissed my pants at the same time.

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 02:42 | 1225057 ciscokid
ciscokid's picture

There was lots of swaps from silver to gold,thats why the silver went a bit lower on Friday,People are changing their silver contracts to gold.

Sat, 04/30/2011 - 18:36 | 1224550 Nero
Nero's picture

+1

Sat, 04/30/2011 - 19:26 | 1224594 Intellectual Chaos
Intellectual Chaos's picture

If people wake up at 4 in the morning to watch a bunch of fake monarchs get married and believe that somehow these fools have an effect on the world, then they will believe in anything and anyone so why not tell them that gold is going to $20,000 and silver is going to $10,000 and that the bank of america adds where they claim to help the average joe reach his dream are all true.  Bottom line is that feed people enough crap and they are gonna believe it until one day when they wake up.  Remember the internet days when companies were valued based on the number of hits or eye balls to a web site.  That is where we are with gold and silver.  Its not over valued because we have all been told so.  Beauty is in the eye of the beholder and government is in the hand of the corrupt and since the hand is quicker than they eye, just be careful when the hand decides to stop playing three card monty.  For now, Bernanke is the best three card monty player in new york and you should take advantage of the fact that every card reads buy precious metals.

Sat, 04/30/2011 - 21:36 | 1224762 Old. No. 7
Old. No. 7's picture

Oh, they're quite real, and they affect the world more than you know.

Sat, 04/30/2011 - 22:38 | 1224835 zaknick
zaknick's picture

The Four Horsemen have interlocking directorates with the international mega-banks.  Exxon Mobil shares board members with JP Morgan Chase, Citigroup, Deutsche Bank, Royal Bank of Canada and Prudential.  Chevron Texaco has interlocks with Bank of America and JP Morgan Chase.  BP Amoco shares directors with JP Morgan Chase.  RD/Shell has ties with Citigroup, JP Morgan Chase, N. M. Rothschild & Sons and Bank of England.

Former Citibank chairman Walter Shipley sat on Exxon Mobil’s board, as did Wayne Calloway of Citigroup and Allen Murray of JP Morgan Chase.  Willard Butcher of Chase sat on the board of Chevron Texaco.  Former Fed chairman Alan Greenspan came from Morgan Guaranty Trust and served on the board of Mobil.  BP Amoco director Lewis Preston went on to become president of the World Bank. 

Other BP Amoco directors have included Sir Eric Drake, the #2 man at the world’s largest port operator P&O Nedlloyd and a director at Hudson Bay Company and Kleinwort Benson.  William Johnston Keswick, whose family controls Hong Kong powerhouse Jardine Matheson, also sat on the board of BP Amoco.  Keswick’s son is a director at HSBC.  The Hong Kong connection is even stronger at Royal Dutch/Shell.

Lord Armstrong of Ilminster sat on the boards of Royal Dutch/Shell, N. M. Rothschild & Sons, Rio Tinto and Inchcape.  Cathay Pacific Airlines owner and HSBC insider Sir John Swire was a director at Shell, as was Sir Peter Orr, who joins Armstrong on Inchape’s board.  Shell director Sir Peter Baxendell joins Armstrong on the board of Rio Tinto, while Shell’s Sir Robert Clark sits on the board of the Bank of England.

As a result of the deregulation craze in the US companies no longer have to report their top shareholders to the SEC.  According to 1993 10K reports filed by the Four Horsemen, the Rothschild, Rockefeller and Warburg banking combines still control Big Oil.  The Rockefellers exert control through New York mega-banks and Banker’s Trust, which in 1999 was purchased by Warburg-controlled Deutsche Bank in its bid to become the largest bank in the world. 

As of 1993 Banker’s Trust was #1 shareholder in Exxon.  Chemical Bank was #4 and J.P. Morgan was #5.  Both are now part of JP Morgan Chase.  Banker’s Trust was also leading shareholder at Mobil.  BP listed Morgan Guaranty as its biggest owner in 1993, while Amoco listed Banker’s Trust as its #2 shareholder.  Chevron listed Banker’s Trust as its #5 shareholder, while Texaco listed J.P. Morgan as its #4 owner and Banker’s Trust as #9. 

Thus, Deutsche Bank and JP Morgan Chase – the banks of Warburg and Rockefeller – have increased shares in Exxon Mobil, BP Amoco and Chevron Texaco.  Rothschild-controlled Bank of America and Wells Fargo exert West Coast control over Big Oil, while Mellon Bank also remains a big player.  Wells Fargo and Mellon Bank were both top 10 shareholders of Exxon Mobil, Chevron Texaco and BP Amoco as of 1993.

Information on Royal Dutch/Shell is even harder to obtain since they are registered in the UK and Hollandand are not required to file 10K reports.  It is 60% owned by Royal Dutch Petroleum of Holland and 40% owned by Shell Trading & Transport of the UK.  The company has only 14,000 stockholders and few directors.  The consensus from researchers is that Royal Dutch/Shell is still controlled by the Rothschild, Oppenheimer, Nobel and Samuel families along with the British House of Windsor and the Dutch House of Orange. 

Queen Beatrix of the Dutch House of Orangeand Lord Victor Rothschild are the two largest shareholders.  Queen Beatix’ mother Juliana was once the richest woman in the world and a patroness of the right-wing occult movement.  Prince Bernhard, who married Juliana in 1937, was a member of the Hitler Youth Movement, the Nazi SS and an employee of Nazi combine I.G. Farben.  He sits on the boards of over 300 European companies and founded the Bilderbergers.

When you’re being robbed, it’s always a good idea to be able to identify the perp.  Now if only we could get the cops to bring em’ in…

www.deanhenderson.wordpress.com

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 02:54 | 1225064 BlackholeDivestment
Sun, 05/01/2011 - 16:23 | 1225898 rocker
rocker's picture

Agreed.  Just terrific stuff Zaknick.  It is important to realize how we got where we are and might go.

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 01:38 | 1225018 kumquatsunite
kumquatsunite's picture

I love Ben Bernanke, and it seems that I spend a lot of time defending him. Let him who wishes to throw a stone at Bernanke answer the following questions:

1. Do you now or have you ever lived in a house that was payed for with a zero down (or zero plus extra monies to have fun with! yee haw!) loan?

2. Do you now or have you ever wanted to go to the store and have the cash registers working so you can buy your kiddies milk?

3. Do you now or have you ever created a financial system, complete and totally working in all manners, that can totally replace todays? 

One little bearded man attempting to clean up the mess of a bunch of putzes who decided to play poker with the future's chips. 

If you have children, or grandchildren, this should tick you off immensely.

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 02:27 | 1225046 blunderdog
blunderdog's picture

It's cute, and for sure it has no effect whatsoever on someone here who doesn't have kids.

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 02:45 | 1225061 James
James's picture

Hey Intelectual Chaos you stole my avatar!

Sat, 04/30/2011 - 22:03 | 1224795 owensdrillin
owensdrillin's picture

 

Excellent post David. Best I've seen in a while.

Sat, 04/30/2011 - 22:47 | 1224842 DavidPierre
DavidPierre's picture

 The Great Silver Debate...

I would love to know where the silver market sentiment data is coming from. It seems every widely circulated commentary on silver these days is extremely bearish. The silver stocks have been selling down for most of the month and it is hard to find an investor that thinks silver can sustain this price range.

However there is a disconnect that is underway that has been have expected for a long time. All of those who are bearish point to the spot silver price to support their case.

I question the term 'mania' to discuss silver because hardly anyone actually owns any silver and the silver stocks are trending lower for the short term.

Nothing but quotes from such luminaries as Nitwit Nadler and poor old Ned Schmidt who have been screaming the silver bubble story since it traded at $30, and even clueless Chris Ecclestone get repeated to suggest the fair value of silver is only $30.

Do not take anything these clowns have to say seriously.

Since when silver was below $10 the commentary stated that the market is never wrong and that the low price is a sign of abundance. Well now that silver has moved up to more reasonable levels, the same guys are all calling a bubble.

I thought the market was never wrong? None of the discussion even considers the possibility of a short squeeze in the futures market, or a real shortage of the metal.

None of these bozos that point to wild speculation ever discuss the wild shorting spree that has contained the metal.

All the time about irrational spec buyers but is it not even more irrational to be wrong about the trend of a metal and still pile on more shorts as the position blows up by hundreds of millions of dollars?

The price level that silver has reached seems high in the context of the lows that were endured at the bottom of the bear market. However, why should silver be the only commodity that has NOT broken to new all time highs in this bull market?

And on a fundamental level, I doubt that the $50 range is going to suddenly be the magnet to increase supply. Every silver miner was running flat out when silver broke above $25. There is not one silver producer on the planet that can easily increase production just on the basis of the price rise. On the contrary, some producers have been hedging forward sales into this rising price, which does not produce one single ounce of new silver.

And on a related topic, corrupt Mexican cops have all been hired by the SEC!

Mexico has a tradition of cops that are paid not to see things and so they are ideal for the job. How else to explain the failure to investigate obvious market rigging operations.

It does not take a genius to spot that silver stocks have been hammered the day before every COMEX margin increase. Every time, and usually when silver is rising strongly prior to this action, the silver stocks are hit hard. THEN the news comes out about increased margin, usually followed by downside pressure on silver itself, allowing the new shorts to cover easily on high volume trading.

This scam is so easy to spot and one need only pull the trading tickets on the larger silver stocks on those specific dates prior to margin increases to identify and prosecute the criminals. I doubt anything will ever be done to protect investors on this or any other scam in the PM sector. So much for the free and fair markets.

At the end of the day, the fundamentals are going to determine the longer term trend for silver.

Those who believe there is abundant supply and irrational speculation on the long side will have sold and gone short. Those who believe there is an acute shortage of the metal will continue to accumulate and will await a resolution to the counter trend sell off in the silver stocks. The rhetoric flying around has certainly attracted the attention of the market but if there is indeed a silver shortage, then the price of silver will run much higher before all is settled. There is plenty of silver bullion still around, but not for sale below $50 and those who have been shorting against this move may find it the most costly mistake they ever make.
www.lemetropolecafe.com

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 01:53 | 1225025 jeff montanye
jeff montanye's picture

there are the unparalleled (on a global level) fundamentals of the first time "modern central banks" oppose a deflationary depression combined with the inflation adjusted six hundred fifty year price range of silver:  $800 in the late 1400's (high) to $5 in the late 1900's (low).  nice to know one is getting in near the low. 

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 02:55 | 1225063 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

Pertinent market fundamentals:

1. US Govt spending cuts -- virtually non-existent!

2. Fed continuing to expand the # of FRNs via QE -- check

3. Housing prices STILL trending lower -- check

4. Dollar Index still going spelunking -- check

5. Price of Oil and other necessary commodities talking in a funny, helium-affected voice -- check

But somehow, we're SUPPOSED to believe that Au & Ag are in a bubble!  I was born in the morning, but it wasn't this morning!

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 13:36 | 1225678 DosZap
DosZap's picture

At the end of the day,holding either will be a major plus.

Both, or one...............will beat the hades out of neither.

Sat, 04/30/2011 - 22:16 | 1224812 dark pools of soros
dark pools of soros's picture

let it blow up...  I'll sell an oz of gold when it pays off my house...

Sat, 04/30/2011 - 23:31 | 1224905 Boxed Merlot
Boxed Merlot's picture

Who owns what, if it gets as crazy as that? Who will you call to enforce your property rights?

What good will a US residence be if water doesn't flow into or out of it? Who would be willing to squat in a McMansion without electricity? Even portable electronic playthings will be poor pacifiers when you got to build an actual wood burning fire to stay warm.

You may be right, that albatross may only be worth an ounce at that point.

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 00:27 | 1224962 Calmyourself
Calmyourself's picture

I will enforce those rights. Water, power and an actual wood fire lol... Tell us more city boy. Do you wet yourself when you see a carnivore on t.v.?

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 01:10 | 1224996 Boxed Merlot
Boxed Merlot's picture

Property rights and the right to own property is at the heart of this discussion in my humble opinion. My family has been in possession of deeded mineral rights in the Mother Lode of CA for over 30 years. It has stoped and blocked hard rock reserves of over 165K oz au and as a result, I've been extremely interested in recent issues related to the recordation, ownership and transfer ability of these assets.

The McMansion comment showing the reliance of infrastructure amenities determining the value of these structures just illustrates what a house of cards many / most "city boys" would own if/when these simple products and services are interrupted.

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 02:58 | 1225065 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

Who's to say that Au/Ag won't allow one to BUY the Power/Water plants?  Expand your mind a little.

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 11:22 | 1225437 Seer
Seer's picture

OK, this is getting a bit silly...  Are you suggesting that an individual own an entire power/water plant?  Or, are you suggesting that a single individual would control it for use by others (in addition to him/her self)?

In the first case you'd have to protect the infrastructure itself, from the disgruntled masses.  Hire protection? (and then soon it will require more and more bribes/pension money)

The second case would imply that there are actually viable paying customers.

This all goes to the heart of what TPBT are worried about.  These are THEIR discussions (of which we tend to chastise).  It's that mirror thing...

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 12:32 | 1225572 Boxed Merlot
Boxed Merlot's picture

Who's to say that Au/Ag won't allow one to BUY the Power/Water plants?  Expand your mind a little...

 

Believe it or not, individuals have the ability to do just that already, buy stocks, bonds and munis.  Why the need to re-invent the wheel??

 

Our, the US system has all the pieces in place to work properly if the clowns currently performing under the big top would quit their performing and get to work.

 

Intrinsically valuable coinage based on dependable weights and measures placed in circulation by US mints, legal tender currency issued by the treasury department with tribute collecting duties from foriegn entities granted the privelege of conducting commercial activities with the soveriegn citizens of the land.

 

Why the US pays tribute to a foreign entity for the privelege of using their currency remains a mystery to me.

Sat, 04/30/2011 - 22:46 | 1224843 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

The only thing keeping their monetary system afloat now is inertia: the desire to deny the obvious truth at hand out of habit, fear, nostalgia and other irrationals. But that can change fast too. 

Sat, 04/30/2011 - 17:06 | 1224420 Misstrial
Misstrial's picture

 

An article with video certain to warm the heart of any gold owner -

 

The Stakes Are Real in the Yukon as a Modern Gold Rush Is On

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142405274870384190457625710270380664...

 

~Misstrial

 

Sat, 04/30/2011 - 16:58 | 1224429 Misean
Misean's picture

So, if I wear a parrot on my shoulder, someone will try to sell me an ounce of gold for $50?!?!

Arrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr! There's piratin' ta be done, mateys! Arrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr!

Sat, 04/30/2011 - 20:25 | 1224659 akak
akak's picture

Avast!  Shiver me timbers! 

PIECES OF EIGHT, YE BITCHEZ!

Sat, 04/30/2011 - 17:01 | 1224432 Sathington Willougby
Sathington Willougby's picture

At this point you'd need a Sikorsky to even dream of making a dent in it.  Fuel costs would kill the operation.

"Dr Spock is there anything we can do?"

"You just better have a damn good pilot"

Sat, 04/30/2011 - 17:33 | 1224480 Landrew
Landrew's picture

Do you mean Mr. Spock, the famous Dr. Spock was a forties pediatrician that published Baby and Child Care in 1946. Mr. Spock, he goes without saying, especially in these times of full-blown Sci Fi Economics.

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 01:58 | 1225027 jeff montanye
jeff montanye's picture

also dr. spock was a tenacious and articulate peace activist/war opponent.

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 11:46 | 1225494 Poofter Priest
Poofter Priest's picture

I would imagine Mr. Spock would also be the same as....

War is illogical, wasteful and destructive of creative and created things.

 

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 11:52 | 1225505 tamboo
Sat, 04/30/2011 - 17:07 | 1224433 css1971
css1971's picture

Debt can be serviced. All it requires is that you every year run harder and faster. Without fail. The failures are recessions and depressions.

Guess why we have a problem now.

We're not running harder and faster than last year. In fact, we're slowing down; It's getting harder and harder to stay running at the same speed.... You've already heard them say the words.

"The era of cheap energy is over"

Productivity starts going down, not up.

So the debt starts collapsing.

Only 2 ways the debt collapse can go; stagflation or deflation, there is no longer any potential for growth. I'm betting my house, savings and pension on stagflation... (for now). Our leaders are weak, self absorbed, narcissistic, pandering scum. It's what the word means, so they are not going to allow deflation, "it's the economy, stupid". Anything expedient which makes the numbers bigger rather than smaller will be used.

Bring back cheap energy and my bets anyway are off.

Sat, 04/30/2011 - 17:29 | 1224468 whosetosay
whosetosay's picture

All it requires is that you every year run harder and faster. Without fail.

Beating a dead horse comes to mind. This too...... http://www.joke-archives.com/workplace/indianwisdom.html

Sat, 04/30/2011 - 17:50 | 1224502 Calmyourself
Calmyourself's picture

Stagflation or deflation ehh, thats it my two choices.. By the way how do you bet the house, pension and savings on stagflation? Buy lots and lots of Jimma Carter sweaters.
Familiar with HYPERinflation, you may not be interested in it, but it is interested in you..

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 11:41 | 1225479 Seer
Seer's picture

Again, what fucking difference does it make what color the crashing car is?  The POINT is that it WILL crash.

Right now it's stagflation/deflation: just ask yourself (PMs aside) what the value is of the possessions you have.  Of course, this is "PRICE inflation," the Austrian definition is of money in circulation (which, btw, is also in contraction, though at the same time we are telling ourselves that there is more of it "out there" [filling the black holes of the banking industry's books- yes, it's highly probable that this will appear, thus triggering hyperinflation, though TPTB are aware of this, is not currently happening]).

What matters is that you have assets that are of the things that make REAL life happen: food, shelter and water.

Much of the world relies on warm clothing to stay warm.  Your cheap political shot is just that, cheap and political: a wise person takes useful information from ANY source, doesn't discount it because of who the messenger is.

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 07:11 | 1225190 downwiththebanks
downwiththebanks's picture

Debt cannot ever fully be serviced as long as banker-gangsters are given the ability to print money and sell it (or give it away to other banker-gangsters) with interest.

Moreover, debt to these samesaid banker-gangsters SHOULD NOT be repaid, as it is their 'fee' for destroying the economy.  Instead, they should be cut off from their drug supply and made to gamble with their own money, rather than money handed to him by the people who actually work for a living.

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 11:43 | 1225484 Seer
Seer's picture

And after the current lot of operators are removed from the controls will we still not have the SAME System?  The same system that is predicated on perpetual growth on a finite planet?

Sat, 04/30/2011 - 17:01 | 1224435 SWRichmond
SWRichmond's picture

I'll read this later, it should be good for a chuckle; I'm sure the author has made a lot of "discoveries," like the adjusted monetary base.

  I've got a double in my gold and a triple in my silver already.  Wanna know how much HL I bought at $3.00? 

Sat, 04/30/2011 - 17:30 | 1224471 yabyum
yabyum's picture

SWR, Sure how much HL did you get? I have been in and out of HL, GPL, Tinka, Northair and a shit load of others. Nothing has beat the Pslv, whose profits went to the real stuff. The dimes I got @ 5$/oz still get me hard.

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 15:46 | 1225839 SWRichmond
SWRichmond's picture

It was meant as a rhetorical question, and I will give a rhetorical answer: not enough.

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 11:50 | 1225503 Seer
Seer's picture

"I've got a double"...

You cashed in?  If not, then you've got NOTHING UP!  The measure is in what you HAVEN'T LOST!  And, as long as one measures against a fiat currency there are no REALIZED gains/losses until you close out (against fiat, or assets, though one would have to be able to identify value levels on such assets [again, specified against fiat?]).

PMs are a STORE of VALUE.  They are not eggs that will magically hatch on their own by merely sitting on them: value is only realized when they've been transacted with.

But, yes, I too am relieved that I have a modest, meaningful store of value...  Never intended for riches, just for survival...

Sat, 04/30/2011 - 17:06 | 1224438 apberusdisvet
apberusdisvet's picture

Everything written today about the "bubbles" is nothing more than fear mongering or desperate psyops propaganda.  I have one question to ask of the shills who, upon significant introspection and objective intelligence, will begrudgingly admit to  the concept of the Masters of the Universe spawned by the Creature from Jekyl Island.

WTF asset category do you think these people are holding in their private vaults?

Sat, 04/30/2011 - 17:07 | 1224445 Misstrial
Misstrial's picture

Ans: A stamp collection? lol

~Misstrial

Sat, 04/30/2011 - 17:12 | 1224449 Gold 36000
Gold 36000's picture

Real Assets.  However they also hold income generating assets too such as businesses and corporations.  That is where the real wealth is generated, not from holding gold forever, but from risking capital in order to make a return.

Sat, 04/30/2011 - 23:19 | 1224895 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

Risk is on when there's a vibrant productive economy. Otherwise capital seeks safety, as you see now: bonds and gold. Lots of risk capital has moved overseas where there are vibrant productive economies. 

Sat, 04/30/2011 - 18:23 | 1224540 everycentometal
everycentometal's picture

they are holding farms, weapons, ammo, seeds, congressmen, the president, body guards, armies, law enforcement.......................................

Sat, 04/30/2011 - 18:50 | 1224560 johny2
johny2's picture

And lots of PM.

I do not believe anyone who has run this ponzi scam for decades, and their families have been doing it for much longer, has not planned fot the inevitable end to it. I like ZH and the crowd here, but this idea that we are going to liberate ourselves by buying PM is bit too optimistic in my opinion. It is very likely that credit crunch, suvereign debt crises, fiat currency collapse has been planned long time ago, and is running very smoothly. What comes after is anyones guess. Silver is good, but the best thing is a little farm hidden away in the mountains.

Sat, 04/30/2011 - 23:01 | 1224859 Tail Dogging The Wag
Tail Dogging The Wag's picture

Think farmland outside the US.

A good place to weather the storm.

http://www.thorssoncapital.com/

PS. and the financial tsunami(s)

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 02:30 | 1225049 blunderdog
blunderdog's picture

Land holdings are as good as the government that's going to recognize them...

OR as good as the army that's going to defend them.

If you can depend on the army, you never needed to "buy" them in the first place.

Interesting, eh?

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 02:11 | 1225034 jeff montanye
jeff montanye's picture

imo little that tptb have done looks convincingly like a plan carefully put together a long time ago, aside from "more money for me".  it wouldn't look so sloppy, obvious and full of holes, contradictions and clearly made up on the run stuff.  they pay themselves far more than they are worth.

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 14:01 | 1225705 DosZap
DosZap's picture

The tptb, have had this plan in place at least since the League  of Nations was started.

When it failed, years later around '49 Rockefeller got the U.N.cranked up.And it's been progressing nicely since then.

However I figure this plan has been in place far longer than any of us can imagine.

The who's, when's, and how's, are all semantics.

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 11:24 | 1225447 magis00
magis00's picture

I suggest you read FOFOA.  I think what's coming is like the old joke: you don't have to outrun the bear, only your slowest friend.   TPTB will remain there (the "smart" ones), but the reshuffling of the middle and lower will be quite interesting.  If you don't preserve your wealth, you will be shuffled downward.  I think that's the point.

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 21:11 | 1226725 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

Check in here for the latest and best yet!

 

FOFOA
Sun, 05/01/2011 - 14:46 | 1225762 Seer
Seer's picture

Look around you. When was the last time you saw unicorns?  They're stocking up on unicorns, plain and simple!  Prove otherwise!

Sat, 04/30/2011 - 17:10 | 1224446 Quixotic_Not
Quixotic_Not's picture

I cashed out of U$D holdings in 2002-2003...

I'm about to cash out my T-Direct holdings that I've built since with my e-Biz (before US debt repudiation), just waiting to BTFD  ;-)

Should be one more major correction before the fireworks start, $40 Ag?

Seems like the Chinese are about to do the same...never thought I'd be aligned with the PRC!

Sat, 04/30/2011 - 17:09 | 1224447 Gold 36000
Gold 36000's picture

This article brings up a very good point and like my namesake I think gold has a good shot at higher levels.  However if the economy ever gets healthy again and inflation under control then gold is likely to go nowhere or possibly down.  If austerity does get going and governments bite the bullet then we could have a long period of mild deflation or zero inflation.  It all depends on when or if things ever normalize again.  Those of us in the gold camp should be thinking about the possibility that some other asset at some point will be the next winner.  The trick is figuring out when.  Unless you really believe that the Fed and the Bankstas would ever allow fiat to be repudiated (and lose all their power and wealth) then you have to believe at some point paper will be worth owning again, and physical assets less valuable.  At some point.  I wish I could see a WSJ from 2020.

Sat, 04/30/2011 - 17:13 | 1224452 Quixotic_Not
Quixotic_Not's picture

If austerity does get going and governments bite the bullet then we could have a long period of mild deflation or zero inflation

C'mon...can't you read the script yet?

Deficits mean nothing to the pyschopaths in power!

The grand plan of the Bankster tribe is to export USofA inflation to developing countries to continue the extraction of wealth - Money for nothin', chicks for free.

Of course, with external sovereign purchases of treasuries not equalling (D) & (R) Free Shit Empire™ spending, the Fed Mafia  switched over to holding treasuries until developing countries can be convinced once again to pick up the slack...

No matter what, the bankster tribe gets their vig, even if the money created from thin air implodes due to lack of real buyers.

Sat, 04/30/2011 - 17:36 | 1224472 Gold 36000
Gold 36000's picture

I am very doubtful that the government can ever be farsighted enough to do the right thing, hence longterm gold bullish.  I am the worst of the vaccilators and sit in line pontificating "chocololate or vanilla?" The best thing for me would be just to turn off the news, because I am tempted to be frantically selling gold one day and buying it back the next. lol

Sat, 04/30/2011 - 20:15 | 1224648 Pepe
Pepe's picture

I have to disagree, the government is unfortunately devilishly farsighted. It has been preparing this show for at least two decades now

 

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 14:55 | 1225772 Seer
Seer's picture

Excellent summation!

Sat, 04/30/2011 - 17:26 | 1224454 GoinFawr
GoinFawr's picture

Quick word of advice XAU 360000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000:

You need a partner to play the `Good Cop` `Bad Cop` routine, otherwise you just come off as a vacillator, disingenuous, or bipolar.

Those of 'us' in the gold camp... yeah right, since when? For you I am thinking it will be more like the 'FEMA camp'.

Sat, 04/30/2011 - 17:34 | 1224476 Gold 36000
Gold 36000's picture

Fedghetto, bitchez.  It might not be so bad if there is plenty of soma and lots of sex.  Brave New World is probably the best of the dystopias in our future.

Sat, 04/30/2011 - 19:37 | 1224596 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

Your Gas Pump(G.F.) should have Red (BLOOD SHOT) Eyes. P.S. I like you in a Bi-Polar way. Last but not least. I didn't Junk you! Never have, never will!

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 15:05 | 1225784 Seer
Seer's picture

"However if the economy ever gets healthy again and inflation under control"

Please explain "healthy."  When you say "again," what PERIOD are you talking about?

"I wish I could see a WSJ from 2020."

I'm sure that if it's still around (doubtful) that it'll still be be filled with BS.  Why anyone would want to read disinfo from the future is beyond my comprehension, perhaps my problem is that I'm not a big fan of fiction...  Anyway, it doesn't matter, as YOU (and nearly everyone else) won't be privy, lest we alter the scales of power, and TPTB surely aren't going to allow that.

Keep in mind that just about anything is POSSIBLE, what the focus should be on, however, is what is PROBABLE.

History tells us what is important, and if you ain't figured it out yet then I'm not going to bother because the world needs people who are a little bit quicker...

Sat, 04/30/2011 - 17:16 | 1224451 chistletoe
chistletoe's picture

The Rudyard Kipling poem contains some of the keys needed

to be a successful trader.

I must be able to admit when I am wrong,

to sell my losing long or to buy back my gaining short.

Equally so, if I sell a long hoping to buy it back cheaper,

then I must be willing and able to buy it back for even more,

if I was mistaken about the correction but confident about the long-term trend.

Why not?  This merely constitutes a brand new trade

which can stand or fall on its own merits,

it has no more to do with previous trades

than the odds of flipping a coin are affected

by the last 20 times in a row of hitting "heads."

 

So that's what I do.

And when I am successful,

I take the cash out and buy physical.

And that's to keep unto the end.

 

Sat, 04/30/2011 - 18:22 | 1224539 silvertrain
silvertrain's picture

Its ok to make a bad trade, its not ok to stay in a bad trade..

Sat, 04/30/2011 - 17:28 | 1224470 I am Jobe
I am Jobe's picture

Ok just got back from the titi bar, it was quiet. What did I miss. The tits bar is not doing well in NV, fucking Harry Reid wants to shut down the great places that I enjoy the most.

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 01:49 | 1225024 kumquatsunite
kumquatsunite's picture

Ah perhaps you did not know...it wasn't that long ago the Mormons allowed the old guys with money to pay to annoint the young mormon girls on their wedding day, "annointing" their , ahem, hills and valleys, so to speak...maybe they still do it but are better at keeping it quiet. Course you had to pay good money and get that special "temple recommend" to do it. 

Isn't Harry Reid fun? For a zillion years his paycheck has come from alcohol, gambling, prostitution, and anything else Nevada can claim to tax. But he's still a "good" Mormon? hee hee hee.... 

Sat, 04/30/2011 - 17:35 | 1224475 Internet Tough Guy
Internet Tough Guy's picture

Until 1971, gold backed every dollar in circulation. Period.

Ridiculous. Only foreign-held dollars were backed by gold after 1933.

"Behind every $35 in paper money, in a vault in the United States, sat an ounce of gold."

 

Of course not. The US had greatly over-expanded its paper dollars which is why there was a run on gold by foreigners. Honestly, this article is worthless.

 

Sat, 04/30/2011 - 17:38 | 1224486 Quixotic_Not
Quixotic_Not's picture

Artículo 1, Sección 10

No State shall enter into any Treaty, Alliance, or Confederation; grant Letters of Marque and Reprisal; coin Money; emit Bills of Credit; make any Thing but gold and silver Coin a Tender in Payment of Debts;

¿Tienes puta plata?

Sat, 04/30/2011 - 17:59 | 1224514 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

i didn't read this, either.  went directly past unsubscribe. 

+++  Art.I, Sec. 10.  very good translation, too!

Sat, 04/30/2011 - 19:30 | 1224598 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

+1 I concur. Catching up on threads. Nice post!

Sat, 04/30/2011 - 18:07 | 1224525 Internet Tough Guy
Internet Tough Guy's picture

You think they stopped writing laws in the 1700s? You probably think you don't have to pay income tax either. Good luck with that.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gold_Reserve_Act

The United States Gold Reserve Act of January 30, 1934 required that all gold and gold certificates held by the Federal Reserve be surrendered and vested in the sole title of the United States Department of the Treasury.

The Gold Reserve Act outlawed most private possession of gold, forcing individuals to sell it to the Treasury, after which it was stored in United States Bullion Depository at Fort Knox and other locations.

 

 

 

Sat, 04/30/2011 - 21:47 | 1224771 prole
prole's picture

...After which it was taken to parts unknown...

And there appears to be a debate going on below this post requiring the professional opinion of a Governor (forgot his name so I did a goog search.. NY..gov..whores-- Eliot Spitzer!!) I believe he has a lot of experiencia in these matters? Perhaps someone could call in his show and ask?

Sat, 04/30/2011 - 19:09 | 1224576 rodocostarica
rodocostarica's picture

Si tengo plata pero no putas. Lastima.

 

Pero muy pronto hay putas cuando tiene plata no

Sat, 04/30/2011 - 20:23 | 1224652 Pepe
Pepe's picture

Si, eso dice Lloyd Blankfein

Sat, 04/30/2011 - 23:49 | 1224924 akak
akak's picture

Por suficiente plata, sere puto yo mismo!

Putismo, putitos!

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 14:05 | 1225711 DosZap
DosZap's picture

Ah, and so it was..........until 1913, and Congress turned over the right to coin and print money to tptb.

Sat, 04/30/2011 - 22:55 | 1224854 tiger7905
tiger7905's picture

You may not even be able to get your hands on that cheap paper money. Give 48hrs notice of bank withdrawals before the next bank run.

An 'attempted' Canadian bank cash withdrawal story from a friend:

http://goldandsilverlinings.com/?p=852

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 14:29 | 1225739 DosZap
DosZap's picture

tiger,

Unless things have changed, banks order cash twice a week.

Also, if you look next time you go to your bank, check and see if there is a sign telling you the Limit you may deduct(IF the bank so wishes),and how long you must wait to get in excess of same.)

I went to my bank several mos ago, and laughed and said I doubt you have this much on hand, but if you do I need $15K.

They said, sure no prob.(just had rec'd one of their two weekly allotments).

But I had to sign out a form (excess of 10K).

Also when I went to purchase what I got the cash for, I had to sign a Form 8300.(whatever the hades that is).

Most here are well aware of he Fed rules on withdrawals on 10K+.)

A lot are not on  W/D's, and deposits of increments of amounts amounting to that limit, even over the course of a year.

Banks are rewarded for reporting activity OUTSIDE your usual activities.(if you are checked and illegalities are found, or even imagined).

The employee, gets 25% of the amount seized as a  reward.(also, keep in mind this is both for cash deposits, and w/d's).

Whenever I do wires, (often), at first I was never asked any questions.

Now, every time I do one, I am queried as to what it's for.

(I never say exactly, just investments).None of their damn business IMHO.

I have used the same Bank for over 20yrs.

Sat, 04/30/2011 - 17:34 | 1224477 Yardfarmer
Yardfarmer's picture

in the coming cataclysm Au/Ag are great for starters like building the foundation to a house. that's where the real work begins. presently sitting in a yurt in the wilderness surrounded by BLM land. it's a good place to begin.

 

Sat, 04/30/2011 - 17:47 | 1224492 Fancy Bear
Fancy Bear's picture

Question: What's the end game for a gold ETN like DGP? Don't ETNs only fall apart if the issuing bank becomes insolvent? Must that happen if gold reaches $10k+?

Notice I care not to worry about the reality of GLD's physical holdings. That's a different debate.

Sat, 04/30/2011 - 17:46 | 1224493 SilverDoctors
Sat, 04/30/2011 - 18:03 | 1224517 Moe Howard
Moe Howard's picture

I thought silverback was a kind of ugly lesbian like ellen degenerates or am I wrong....

Sat, 04/30/2011 - 17:47 | 1224496 I am Jobe
I am Jobe's picture

Face it the Congress and Corporations donlt want any one to figure out how badly Americans are getting fucked. Americans will never fucking understand the crap period.

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 07:23 | 1225194 downwiththebanks
downwiththebanks's picture

And when they do, plenty of ZeroHedgers who TALK tough on the banker-gangsters will attack the very working people they rididculed for not waking up.

It's fine when nothing is going down and you can attack everyone, but when you've got to stand on one side of a barricade or the other, the ZeroHedge community will call for liquidation of everything by governments to pay those sacrosanct 'debts' to the banker-gangsters before ANYTHING else.

Because the banker-gangsters, and not working people, keep them in good dope.  To the dope-fiends, working people are simply the suckers who let the banker-gangsters gamble with their savings.  And as long as Uncle Sam is letting them buy whores and drugs with government money, the people who do real work are really not important at all. 

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 15:23 | 1225800 Seer
Seer's picture

For one, it's not like anyone could stand up and speak the truth, lest there be all kinds of deniers jumping up (with whatever flat-earth club supporting them) and steering the facts off a cliff.  Can't even explain the issues related to exponential functions without being called a supporter of eugenics.

Second, people have been programmed to believe that the team that they root/vote for will save them (or abiotic oil, or unicorns...).

But... IF everyone did get these things, what do you think would happen with TPTB's system, the one that everyone is bound to?  It would be like instant suicide, total chaos.  People would then long for the "good old days" in which they were being slowly lead to slaughter... they'd blame <atheists, anarchists, gays, lesbians, climate change warners, communists, aliens [both kinds], and on and on>, and never grasp that things failed because things are finite.  TPTB are in power because they're great story-tellers, they're really good at telling the lies that people want to hear, and people don't want to hear the truth lest they be faced with having to admit that they lived a lie.

Sat, 04/30/2011 - 17:54 | 1224504 Clint Liquor
Clint Liquor's picture

I'd rather be a Bug, than a Stocksucker!

Sat, 04/30/2011 - 17:58 | 1224509 I only kill chi...
I only kill chickens and wheat's picture

Excerpt from an article on survivalblog.com. Must say it's a scenario I didn't consider. The US still has great natural resources, and manufacturing could be brought up to speed in say 5 years. Getting new energy online in quantity say 10 years. Thoughts?

"The USA can readily adapt to manufacturing and doing so does not require a 5 year lead time for higher education. Assembly line jobs can be taught in hours or days. And we're going to need full employment to accomplish these things, to keep our stuff working. Even the minimal pioneering survival stuff like cast iron cookware and plates and silverware and water heaters and all sorts of things which are best mass-produced.  

The rest of the world can easily block out the "information economy" nonsense since so much of that is being done in India and elsewhere anyway. What they can't ban is USA's food exports, largely because the USA feeds a third of the world's population. They can't adjust immediately without invoking massive civil war over starvation. So they'll pay to keep things under control while they frantically plow their fields, plant their crops, and pay their farmers enough to care. In the years it will take to get their own farming going, the hard currency from USA's agricultural exports (rice, wheat, corn, soybeans) will pay for the critical imports and the more important domestic manufacturing plants, with all the implied jobs. And its going to be a lots of jobs. Everything we use that's imported now will need to be made here in the USA. The USA has 300 million residents. That's plenty of demand, in housewares alone. Exporting anything else is unnecessary, and the insistence that the USA "must export to survive" is nonsense. Beyond agriculture we don't need to.  

That gets back to the original issue: how much is the dollar really worth? Approximately 20% of its value in 2006, the peak value of the dollar before the crash started hurting everything, including other currencies. It will probably drop below that at some point, but fluctuations in the commodities market will stabilize it again. The big industrial agriculture organizations farming all that wheat and rice and soy demand a certain amount of return on investment, and they'll want it in hard currency. Expect the US government to tax those exports, which the foreign governments will pay because they literally can't do without the food or stop being governments and start being in the middle of revolutions. They have to pay.  

It is worth pointing out that the USA's other big export is arms. That's likely to be counter-tariffed so competing nations (Britain, France, China) can sell arms for less. All those arms manufacturing jobs in the USA will probably evaporate, but the machinist and assembly line workers will find work making scooter engines and water pumps and Blue-ray players. Same skills, different products, and we actually need them.  

I believe that Trade Tariffs are just as inevitable as the Dollar Crash. They are the only practical way out of this disaster. Believe it. Even if you disagree its going to be what the politicians in the USA will grab for. The Cult of America can't survive otherwise and insulation is just a step short of cultural marginalization (blame that other guy) and drinking the Kool Aid (implosion, probably at the Federal level freeing the States to govern themselves, something Kalifornia is already doing with its responsibilities and revenues dumped onto Counties). Assuming we survive those particular steps, rebuilding is possible. Keep a handy copy of the Constitution in your safe, and remember that State-Level government is far more accessible.  

[Consider life at 20% of] 2006's Dollar value. No more imports. Export agriculture only. Bootstrapping our manufacturing post cheap-oil. Bicycle to work. That's our future.   Best, - InyoKern"

Sat, 04/30/2011 - 18:17 | 1224532 Moe Howard
Moe Howard's picture

"The Cult of America", I like that.

Sat, 04/30/2011 - 21:54 | 1224781 prole
prole's picture

"I believe that Trade Tariffs are just as inevitable as the Dollar Crash. They are the only practical way out of this disaster. Believe it."

I do believe it. Best thing to do now is steal money from people who need to buy stuff like food, cars that work whatever, and give that money to the kind and selfless persons that provide our leadership.

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 14:52 | 1225767 DosZap
DosZap's picture

Trade Tarrifs,will eventually lead to Protectionism,  which will bring about WAR.

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 19:35 | 1226282 Vendetta
Vendetta's picture

we already have WAR

Sat, 04/30/2011 - 22:04 | 1224789 goldsaver
goldsaver's picture

Plenty of assumptions in this comment, I wish you would have provided a link. Let me add my own assumptions. The value of currency (notice I did not say money) is the expectation that you will receive equal value for your time as you gave in consideration for the currency. When you pay 30 minutes of your time (assuming a 10FRN an hour McJob) for a StarSux choco mocca crappe, you are  buying a few minutes from the time of everyone that was involved making your StarSux choco mocca. If we are limited to internal production and consumption our purchasing power is severely curtailed to what we can achieve and produce locally. Building new factories to produce cast iron kettles would require large amounts of capital oulays that will not be available. Why not? Because no one will trust the purchasing power of the currency enough to divest themselves from real wealth for potential wealth.

The author also forgets the elephant in the room. The moochers and the looters are not interested in keeping the host alive. They only want the host to provide blood for as long as they live. They will not give up their power or demands just because you want to build a new factory. They will impose their will and latch on like a leach to your neck trying to bleed you until there is no more blood left. Then, they will move on to the next host that can provide them with their "entitled" sustenance.

The only way this can work is by shutting down the whole system. Turn the switch to the off position and start over at the family, small community, small township and grow to fre regions and states starting over and trading freely. This is what will happen. But not before a very ugly and painfull reset. Riots, civil war, violence, hunger and starvation will be the chlorine in the gene pool before the renaissance. 

This is not what I look forward to anymore than a man falling with a failed parachute looks forward to the imminent impact. But, I have to prepare for the storm I see. I have to look forward to the rebuilding afterwards.

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 03:13 | 1225068 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

Sucks to be outside "The Matrix", don't it?

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 15:42 | 1225832 Seer
Seer's picture

No!  But, I understand what you're trying to say, and that's that knowledge can be a burden.

However, one has to admit that the Matrix was/is pretty impressive.  It's done everything!  Though I'm still holding a big chip over the failure to make flying cars materialize.

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 03:05 | 1225055 blunderdog
blunderdog's picture

You can't really rely on the same currency system in situations where you attempt to break relations with "external" influences.  Didn't we misplace a few billion dollars (of currency) in Iraq?

If the "US dollar" is going to take on a value which discounts the input of the rest of the world's merchants, it's going to be a brand-new currency.  It cannot be the quaint old currency/monetary unit we remember nostalgically from 2006.

(Those junks are pretty quick and very consistent.  I'm so flattered.  I don't even get as much attention from my pets!)

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 09:34 | 1225284 kumquatsunite
kumquatsunite's picture

It seems quite funny when the idea of making things in the United States, seems to be such a big deal. This is the big lie: that it will be hard to get these factories up and running. Not really. We are only a decade to a decade and a half from the real beginning of all that importation. Chatting with someone the other day and here's an easy time thought to solidify this thinking:

The original Wall Street Movie did not have any cheap Chinese goods, so go forward from that. It won't take that long to build factories here, and also regarding: "Bootstrapping our manufacturing post cheap-oil." There will be plenty of oil and other resources; it's ridiculous we haven't used the advantages of the United States. Ah right, we are supposed to let other countries become strong so they can then challenge use for supremacy, like China is doing, like Russia did. The ultimate in naivete; only the United States in the history of the world has ever relinquished its country's rights to sovereignty, self-determination, and identity to others who would not shed a tear if we fell.  This country has lost its mind. Might makes right and this will be the case for the "foreseeable" future. Notice how the Palestinians, having gained numerous "inches" are now kicking the Israelis in the shines? Good example. In order for any kind of detente to work, one should look to the history of the people and consider previous actions. So the only action for the United States is to jettison the refusal of "might makes right" and use all that we have to make ourselves strong, self-sufficient, and mighty in every way. Or as a friend in Texas said about the overrunning of Texas with illegals, "I don't mind as long as they are fair about things." (Cue Goofy laughing...) Gufaw Gufaw Gufaw. When we were a 90% white country, we lived in a time when most didn't lock their doors (with a nod to our black Americans, bear with, this is not a racist statement). However we were told that being a strong, white majority with the glue formed from our fathers and grandfathers and great-grandfathers' blood was, offensive. So we opened the gates of the third world and released upon ourselves tuberculosis, leprosey, bed bugs, endless claims of racism for failure to model our clture after theirs, huge social service and cash awards to the foreigners, gave them jobs with green cards and preferential treatment while our own linger in the disuse and gutter of welfare (called up a company recently and the woman Did Not Speak English; when does it end?). We have become a culture of the callous, crude, and uncouth and nothing so brings that into relief as the weekend wedding. A reminder from the pulpit that the primacy of marriage is based on the establishment of a union from which children shall spring and be brought up to hold those values that separate us from rutting animals. How quaint eh? One hates to say it but there must be a sliver in truth that the Chinese must believe that the filth our media pours forth as role modeling for our children fertilizes a belief we don't deserve this great country; who does that to their children. And as to the Osama bin Ladens of the world; seriously, how can one not see the culture of drugs, personal scouring of any semblance of decency, and the destruction of our families that deny our children the obligations of their "parents" to a whole home committed to their welfare. When you stand for nothing, you fall for anything. Oboma is the example of all that is wrong with this country. A presidency on the basis of a talent for shaking down companies. Yep. The only way from here is up.

 

 

 

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 15:57 | 1225823 Seer
Seer's picture

No argument that trade tariffs will take place.  But...

The US will have to default on its debts.  Not doing so will mean that it won't be able to produce only for itself.  And, to a degree, internal-only production is a bit communistic, yes?  I'm just not seeing big corporations buying into all of this, not unless they get "rewards" from the US govt (who shifts $$ from one pocket to the other).

The importance of farming IS real, and growing bigger every day.  But... US Ag practices are highly subsidized (BIG Ag), and is highly dependent upon fossil fuels.  All the while soil is being depleted...

I can see that this all could look like an interesting storyline, but there are some detail that basically upset any "optimistic" view that it might project.

Will there be local light manufacturing?  Absolutely!  But, it isn't likely going to be plugged in at any national level.  The nation-state, in case it's not apparent to folks, is nearing its end.  And along the coming-home theme, things will be much more community-based, and community will focus on things that are more sustainable.

I'll miss the Internet (kooks and all).

Sat, 04/30/2011 - 18:06 | 1224524 Hedgetard55
Hedgetard55's picture

I just hope people remember, when the dollar crashes to zero value, that Timmay G. said we would never lose our AAA rating, and Bubbles Ben insisted we had a strong dollar policy.

Sat, 04/30/2011 - 18:14 | 1224527 everycentometal
everycentometal's picture

i have heard all this before. can someone please explain what the ultimate end game for gold is. no one ever explains what they are going to do with their heap of gold at the end. if you believe in outright collapse i believe having stores of food commodities, shelter, gardens, water, ammo, weapons etc. will be the real wealth. i doubt people will want a gold coin for their food, i believe they will want something tangible. bartering (tangible wealth) was around long before the move to gold/currency(symbolic wealth). if inflation happens do you hold out until weimar is reached and then sell the gold for worthless currency, or do all the worlds currencies simply devalue themselves and if they moved to a gold standard they would then just reset gold to whatever level they desired. it seems to me that when there was a gold standard the central bankers could use it to punish by severely constricting money supply and causing major pain in the past. it just seems that the elite, bankers and corporations are so entrenched and will never relinquish their puppet master status. no matter the outcome it will ultimately serve their purpose. it just seems the sure thing is having the aforementioned commodities in sufficient supply so no matter what the end game is you can survive. so i am really interested how you will use gold or silver in the event of hyperinflation or total collapse. (not being a smart ass, i truly want to know).

Sat, 04/30/2011 - 18:16 | 1224530 Internet Tough Guy
Internet Tough Guy's picture

Freegold.

Sat, 04/30/2011 - 18:22 | 1224538 Bubbles...bubbl...
Bubbles...bubbles everywhere's picture

I'll settle for a small house or maybe a nice plot of land for an ounce of gold.

Sat, 04/30/2011 - 18:33 | 1224549 Clint Liquor
Clint Liquor's picture

I have positioned myself so I produce much more food than I can possibly consume. I have as many weapons as I want or need to protect myself. Whatever will I do with my excess production? I will sell it just as I do now, except I will demand Gold or Silver. I cure the best Ham and Bacon in the valley and I'm not taking fiat for it. If you think you can just come and take it, make sure you come in something that can handle a 50 BMG.

Sat, 04/30/2011 - 18:48 | 1224555 Gold 36000
Gold 36000's picture

You got 50 BMG?  Great.  Once we have traded with you a bit and become buddies  I and my gang will slit your throat and just take it from you in a madmax scenario.  Do you have 24 hour standing guard?  I just think that people who think they can live out in the country by themselves in a collapse scenario are not thinking straight.  Do you not understand why all the old cities had walls and guards and closed the gates at night?  Can you hold off five guys loaded with body armor and night vision?  Your BMG has just made you a high value target for everyone within 30 miles.

Sat, 04/30/2011 - 18:50 | 1224561 Clint Liquor
Clint Liquor's picture

You are a fool to think you and your 'gang' will make it past the first farm.

Sat, 04/30/2011 - 19:10 | 1224577 Gold 36000
Gold 36000's picture

I guess history is condemned to repeat itself possibly.  You and others will learn the value of walled villages the hard way if a collapse occurs.

Sat, 04/30/2011 - 19:36 | 1224606 Eally Ucked
Eally Ucked's picture

You and your buddies are nothing with your supertech weapons (if you have them?), one day one guy gets shot (accidentaly) and dying, next day the other one gets some injuries and so on. You got what you want just for nick of a time but at the end you're just a piece of shit and nobody will change that reality.  

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 14:56 | 1225773 DosZap
DosZap's picture

"Fixed battle emplacemnts are a monument to the stupidity of man."

George W. Patton

Sat, 04/30/2011 - 19:15 | 1224581 everycentometal
everycentometal's picture

his 50 bmg will f u up even with body armor, and i am sure he has some special ammo just in case. good luck finding five guys willing to die for you. oh you might meet your objective but some of your friends  heads will be blood vapor. you must be a young video gamer, combat sucks and does not look like halo 3. so at least we know who you are now, a pathetic wannabe rouge willing to kill innocent people to get what you want, only you wont have the guts to pull the trigger. some of us have had to and it not something to f-ing day dream about. get out of your moms basement and do something productive.

Sat, 04/30/2011 - 19:23 | 1224593 High Plains Drifter
High Plains Drifter's picture

body armor?  kind of slows you down doesn't it?  any rifle round will cause you problems, so why wear it?  it might make you feel better but in the end, it won't help much, at least in most cases..........

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 15:03 | 1225780 DosZap
DosZap's picture

 any rifle round will cause you problems

Not neccessarily, depends.

.50?,yeah impact alone of a 650+ will cause instant death,even w/ Class4.

Doesn't even have to be a .50BMG either.

Sat, 04/30/2011 - 22:00 | 1224790 Snidley Whipsnae
Snidley Whipsnae's picture

Gold36,000 has been here 11 weeks and has proven that he/she is a troll.

Thanks troll, now go away and take your Mad Max bs with you...

Sat, 04/30/2011 - 23:06 | 1224874 goldfish1
goldfish1's picture

You make a good point.

Sat, 04/30/2011 - 23:09 | 1224879 topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture

I think he is just pointing out that semi isolated out in the country is not very safe. Have any of you read ferfal?

Sure they might.not get past the first farm, but in fighting them off that first farm may take casualties. Bands of brigands may have a short lifespan but others.will take their place.

Then the next farm takes a few casualties, and the next and the next. During one of the irish civil wars in the 1800's the bushwackings and revenge killings got so bad that people couldnt plant their crops. There were snipers shooting at the farmers from the bushes.

I live in a semi rural area too, but i dont have.any illusions about safety on the "frontier" if there ever were a collapse.

It will likely be the guy you trade with the most who provides info to the gang about your habits and weaknesses. Maintain your opsec!

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!