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Things That Make You Go Hmmm - Such As Gold...

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Grant Williams shares: "I had been reading about gold as an investment but more importantly as a hedge against money-printing for some time and had dabbled in ETFs while I told myself that I would DEFINITELY buy some gold – real gold. Physical gold. Shiny, yellow, heavy gold. But of course, I didn’t. It was all too hard, frankly. Why go to all the trouble of researching, finding a bullion dealer, choosing between bars and coins and then plunking down your cash in return for a lump of gold when you could sit at home in front of your computer, click your mouse a few times and be the proud owner of some unallocated claim on a pool of gold that may or may not be there but that gives you exposure to any move in the gold price? You can buy exposure to gold during the commercial break of Grey’s Anatomy. Easy. The trouble with doing that, is that you then end up with a position. It becomes a number that you trade into and out of based on extraneous factors that may or may not have an effect on the underlying price. There aren’t many people who have taken a position in GLD (or SLV for that matter) who haven’t either been chased out of their  position in a big down-move, or failed to pull the trigger on a buy-order because they felt the price had run too far."

All this and much more in the latest edition of Things That Make You Go Hmmm (pdf)

Hmmm Apr 20 2011

 

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Thu, 04/21/2011 - 00:12 | 1191226 I am Jobe
I am Jobe's picture

Tyler,

I think you should cover the Royal Wedding. We might get some hot babes on site and then we can ask them what they think about S&P Downgrade and the FED Reserves Monetary Policy.

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 03:07 | 1191514 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

I wonder if there will be a bombing or shooting :)

GOOD TV! GOOD TV INDEED!

BAM!

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 00:11 | 1191228 SpeakerFTD
SpeakerFTD's picture

Slightly OT, but I just noticed the MIT billion price project site is down.   "For maintenance".  Might be totally legit, but I have never seen it down before.   Any clue?

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 00:20 | 1191250 Hephasteus
Hephasteus's picture

Those MIT guys aren't good with technology. They'll have some harvard business grads come over and power point it back up.

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 01:19 | 1191331 A Nanny Moose
A Nanny Moose's picture

They use Magic Server Pixie Dust.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3nbEeU2dRBg

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 03:48 | 1191540 Overflow-admin
Overflow-admin's picture

http://bpp.mit.edu/ is up again, but daily price indexes per country are vanished... to much maintenance costs... Now BPP has Japan and World indexes only.

 

Hope they will outsource some maintenance in order to keep the indexes updated AND collect more & more data (China? Would be so amazing)

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 00:15 | 1191235 dark pools of soros
dark pools of soros's picture

Colored Charts Bitchez!!!

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 00:27 | 1191256 zaknick
zaknick's picture

I wish I could hit the forward 3X button and cut to the collapse and/or nukular false flag/the day after scenery! Can't see the dollar surviving a true correction which exposes the rotten remains of the AmeriKKKan economy, the debt orogenesis on overdrive and the printers on full speed at the banksters' local HQ. While at the same time Trumped up threatens to extract tribute from all client states and China.

May you live in interesting times and remember: only the paranoid survive, slaves.

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 00:35 | 1191277 jomama
jomama's picture

be careful what you wish for

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 03:13 | 1191518 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

True...

I once wished for my dick to be 20 inches longer, and now every time I fuck my wife she nearly always chokes. It's like putting a pig on a spit...

 

 

 

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 10:16 | 1192190 InconvenientCou...
InconvenientCounterParty's picture

"...only the paranoid survive, slaves."

If you are not too paranoid to consider something new, consider how much energy it takes to be paranoid. You literally have to defend against a littany of irrational threats. It's just wasteful, destructive and for lack of a better word, wrong.

Show me a paranoid person and I'll show you a slave that believes they are free.

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 00:25 | 1191257 zaknick
zaknick's picture

I wish I could hit the forward 3X button and cut to the collapse and/or nukular false flag/the day after scenery! Can't see the dollar surviving a true correction which exposes the rotten remains of the AmeriKKKan economy, the debt orogenesis on overdrive and the printers on full speed at the banksters' local HQ. While at the same time Trumped up threatens to extract tribute from all client states and China.

May you live in interesting times and remember: only the paranoid survive, slaves.

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 00:26 | 1191259 Samual Adams
Samual Adams's picture

I rather die on my feet then live on my knees.  Bitchez.  

and

I rather die with gold/silver then live with fiat confetti.

 

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 00:35 | 1191273 Bananamerican
Bananamerican's picture

"you can have my gold after you pry it from its curious setting with your tongues bitches-Chuck Heston

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 01:39 | 1191365 iowaguy
iowaguy's picture

I'd rather die having sex

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 01:43 | 1191374 Sokhmate
Sokhmate's picture

I'd rather die post-coital.

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 03:15 | 1191521 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

I had a uncle who died like that :)

NOW IT'S THE FAMILY CREDE THAT WE DIE FUCKING!

he's my hero :)

 

never been sick and poof during his daily situps above his wife.

I just doesn't get better than that.

 

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 04:16 | 1191563 RealFinney
RealFinney's picture

I'd rather live on my feet than die on my knees.

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 00:30 | 1191261 JFK.4PREZ
JFK.4PREZ's picture

With the IMF sitting on such a large stash of gold.  I wouldn't be surprised if the SDRs will someday add gold, silver, and oil to their basket.   I believe the banksters think the IMF's SDRs are the global currency of the future after the dollars demise.  Not surprising that godless geithner and the bernank are on the board of governors.   

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 00:38 | 1191279 jomama
jomama's picture

orly, what is their current said stash?

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 00:44 | 1191289 topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture

You cant add gold to the basket.

If gold is 20 percent (or whatever percent it.doesnt matter) then the sdr is a fractional reserve gold standard.

Each quantity of gold allows only the creation of five total currency units. The supply of sdr's would be completely dictated by the supply of gold. It would then become a de facto gold standard.

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 01:13 | 1191316 JFK.4PREZ
JFK.4PREZ's picture

 

so another bretton woods system wouldn't be possible for them to implement?  I feel as though they would try the same de facto gold standard again.  If the set gold price valued "correctly" and as long as no country could print - money supply would stay the same, with newly mined reserves providing the necessary few % annual growth in money supply.  With that said- no more fractional reserve banking.   IMO this would be a good system- unfornuately I don't like the idea of a global currency under the control of those slimey snakes.    Hope this makes sense- im half asleep.  

 

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 01:57 | 1191395 topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture

They seem to want a metacurrency that floats based on the weightings and values of the underlying national currencies.

More flexible than gold, but less flexible than the.individual currencies that make up the sdr.

That way it is reasonably good store of value, but not a harsh inflexible mistress.

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 00:42 | 1191281 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

The second you actually hand over cash in exchange for a piece of gold, it all falls into place. Gold FEELS like money – more so than even the highest-denominated fiat banknote you will ever hold.Trust me. If you haven’t done it yet, try it.

Can't quibble with that comment from the paper.   I carry a silver eagle in my pocket at all times and it is a formidable warrior when my mind wanders.   Others who have never seen one, let alone don't even know that they come from the U. S. Mint, are visibly  impressed by its heft.   If you don't have any real  gold, at least get a Morgan dollar for your stash.   It makes a nice "carry" item along with the other one that is close at hand.

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 00:50 | 1191299 Samual Adams
Samual Adams's picture

Rocky.  You are always a bastion of common sense.  

I too carry both of which you speak upon.   It is true, once you get a real feel for gold or silver, it infiltrates your mind as to what real money is.  Certainly not paper,  that's something you write on, or put over your head in bag form.   Metal you dig out the ground. 

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 00:56 | 1191304 Pool Shark
Pool Shark's picture

 

Silver Eagles make great ball markers.

The one I carry has started some fascinating conversations on the golf course...

 

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 00:58 | 1191307 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

I like to imagine what it was like to throw down a gold double eagle for the goods being bought.  Sorta like throwing down a $1,000 bill -- you gonna get lots of change!   And the change you got back in the 19th century was gold or silver as well.

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 01:01 | 1191309 topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture

Greshams law must be genetically hardwired.

I did some experiments

My kids will not part with their silver eagles to buy things. They will spend cash but not silver, even for fair offers at spot.

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 00:58 | 1191303 OldPhart
OldPhart's picture

I carried a 1 ounce copper "Amero" to demonstrate the power of metal.  Even had a banker offer me $50 for it.  Finally gave it to one of my grand-nephews.

Silver stays at home, hidden.

Captcha question went easy on me, finally....

(-23) times one equals ?

 

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 01:22 | 1191337 A Nanny Moose
A Nanny Moose's picture

LOL! +23 Divided By Zero

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 02:50 | 1191477 Troublehoff
Troublehoff's picture

That would be NaN

 

;)

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 03:25 | 1191527 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

Mine was a bit harder:

 

If 1/2x +1/2(1/2x + 1/2(1/2x +1/2(1/2x + ... = y, then x = ?

1/2x +1/2(1/2x + 1/2(1/2x +1/2(1/2x + ... = y

If x = 1

then the equation likes this:

1/2 +1/2(1/2 + 1/2(1/2 +1/2(1/2 + ... = y

1/2 +1/4 + 1/8 + 1/16 + 1/32 + ... = y

y = 1 = x y = x

 

So the answer was 1.

 

It took me like 2 minutes to figure that one out....

I think Tyler is trying to tell me something here....

 

 

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 21:21 | 1194922 Diogenes
Diogenes's picture

If a hen and a half can lay an egg and a half in a day and a half, how long will it take a rooster sitting on a brass doorknob to hatch an alarm clock?

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 21:32 | 1194957 akak
akak's picture

Blue

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 09:41 | 1192069 s0lspot
s0lspot's picture

Me too! Always one in my jean's lighter pocket...Feels good...radiating a feeling of sanity amidst all the unrealness...

 

And an excellent antiseptic as well... :-)

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 10:59 | 1192340 goldsaver
goldsaver's picture

Rocky, you magnificent bastard! I have been carrying and ASE for a couple of years now. I take it out as a conversation piece. Last Christmass I gave ASEs as stocking stuffers and the other night I pulled my ASE from my pocket in a restaurant and my son tried to pocket it after the conversation ;-)

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 21:38 | 1194971 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

I originally carried them to give as tips, but lately haven't met a waiter worth that much!

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 12:30 | 1192715 goldsaver
goldsaver's picture

.

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 00:48 | 1191295 topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture

Damn tyler dont you ever go to sleep?

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 00:52 | 1191298 wisefool
wisefool's picture

I respect gold in the same way I respect an antique. It is relatively liquid, semi-rare, has a discernable quality to it and seems to hold value to many people for these reasons. Enough to serve as an investment.

<.5 sarc> But if it turns into any type of currency in the western world, either as the backing to a currency or outright, its rarity dictates that the "dead will rise" cause people will dig up bodies looking for gold fillings. < / sarc>

Junk away. But don't laugh when it happens and the MSM is running stories about grave robberies instead of missing person cases and the latest health controversy involving foodstuff _________.

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 00:54 | 1191300 akak
akak's picture

But it only costs $5 to dig it from the ground!

Oh, wait, that's that other damned metal.

Never mind.

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 01:02 | 1191313 Silver Bug
Silver Bug's picture

If people only knew how easy it is to purchase physical. More and more are starting to wake up.

 

http://silverliberationarmy.blogspot.com/

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 01:15 | 1191328 Don Keot
Don Keot's picture

Anything worth having is worth working for.  Once you have bought physical and hold it in your hand you won't even consider paper metal.(oxymoron) DYOD, find a source you are comfortable with and start holding.

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 01:21 | 1191336 John Law Lives
John Law Lives's picture

$6 per gallon for gas in the US?

http://www.cnbc.com/id/42683030

The Ben Bernank = Insane?

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 01:23 | 1191340 John Law Lives
John Law Lives's picture

$6 per gallon for gas in the US?

http://www.cnbc.com/id/42683030

The Ben Bernank = Insane?

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 01:29 | 1191343 Braverdave
Braverdave's picture

I like the idea of carrying a piece of silver with me.

Mine will be a Canadian Silver Dollar (British Columbia 1858 - 1958).

It might make people go 'hmmm'.

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 01:43 | 1191371 Sokhmate
Sokhmate's picture

Why go to all the trouble of researching, finding a bullion dealer, choosing between bars and coins and then plunking down your cash in return for a lump of gold when you could sit at home in front of your computer, click your mouse a few times and be the proud owner of some unallocated claim on a pool of gold

the same goes for pussy. The type you find on a computer is not anything close to the the physical.

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 01:57 | 1191390 geminiRX
geminiRX's picture

Unreal, silver just hit 46. Things are really escalating out of control. Wish I knew what this price movement is telling us (i.e. - is a full blown crisis much closer than we realized?)

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 12:57 | 1192830 tsx500
tsx500's picture

.... it's telling u to get the f**k off your laptop and get down to your nearest dealer to    b u y   MORE  !

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 02:06 | 1191407 bankruptcylawyer
bankruptcylawyer's picture

when they asked the utexas fund manager about why they bought bullion , he answered that the cost of rolling over the futures was too expensive. this is precisely it, futures are for speculation and hedging not for investing. as more large funds INVEST in gold, they will buy the bullion. simple. trading futures to track gold is too expensive for long term investors. 

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 02:42 | 1191466 Bubbles the cat (not verified)
Bubbles the cat's picture

Buy bars. Stack in cellar. Sleep.

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 02:47 | 1191473 BrianZeroHedge
BrianZeroHedge's picture

Here's a question. Let's say there was a government breakdown and the dollar disappeared and that physical gold/silver was traded in its place on a day-to-day basis.

What is the cheapest/easiest way for a merchant to ensure the gold/silver is real and not a knockoff (for example, gold filled with Tungsten)?

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 02:57 | 1191488 akak
akak's picture

Well, there are those Fitch thingamabobs, which will detect most counterfeit gold coins, although if it were a skillfully made gold-plated tungsten copy, it would pass that test.  Tungsten, from what I understand, is however a VERY difficult metal to work with, and is so hard and brittle that it cannot be stamped or minted into a coin like most metals, so there is that safeguard.  That would NOT necessarily be the case for bars, however.

As for silver, I don't really know.  If the value of silver rises high enough, then I can imagine fake bars and coins entering the market, but the density of silver (around 10 g/cc, I believe) is not different enough from many other metals to prevent copies being made from alloys of that density.

Good question!  Perhaps the best defense, as always in the world of coins, would be to get familiar with the coins, and learn to recognize them at a glance; convincing copies of coins are generally VERY hard to produce, and have always been rather rare.

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 03:02 | 1191501 BrianZeroHedge
BrianZeroHedge's picture

Thanks for your comments. While I wanted to buy physical gold/silver in case of government meltdown (as opposed to a hedge against the dollar), I don't see how I'd be able to use it if nobody on the other side of my trade could easily trust its purity.

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 03:07 | 1191512 akak
akak's picture

I can understand your concerns in that regard --- to an extent, I share them myself, as indeed should anyone holding physical metals, whether bars or coins.

It must be noted, though, that gold and silver coins have been used for millenia quite successfully, even though counterfeiting has existed probably for just about as long.  Perhaps our hard-money ancestors knew a few tricks that we have generally forgotten today?

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 06:23 | 1191672 saulysw
saulysw's picture

There is plenty of fake paper too. This problem is no worse with the metals.

Fri, 04/22/2011 - 03:10 | 1195468 BrianZeroHedge
BrianZeroHedge's picture

I disagree. There is a central authority actively trying to prevent the spread of fake paper, and the recipient of the counterfeit might have some recourse. In a government breakdown, each individual would be self-responsible. So, short of biting the gold, there would have to be some previously-established trust between the parties before the barter could take place.

In that case, there would probably be a lot of better items for trade, such as corn, ammunition, and other directly-usable goods. In fact, if the US government broke down but Canada or Mexico were still alive and well, it would probably be better to use the Loonie or Pesos than gold or silver (depending on where in the US you lived).

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 13:06 | 1192865 tsx500
tsx500's picture

i'm curious as to opinions of ZH'ers on   the best/most 'riskless' way to accumulate physical silver ...   i hear alot about Eagles/Maples but don't hear much about junk silver (pre-'65 dimes/quarters) .   my only physical silver purchase to date was a couple bags of junk , about a year ago.   however i plan to trade some long GLD and/or SLV for physical Ag next week and trying to decide what form(s) of physical .  

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 02:58 | 1191492 nontaxpayer
nontaxpayer's picture

Very good re-cap. I'd liked to add that True Finns party are more on the left side of the spectrum despite having conservative values as opposed to being "right-wing" ie leftist income/state welfare/taxation policies coupled with r small business support and religion (Lutheran Evangelical, although Mr Soini is one of the few Catholics in the country).

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 03:01 | 1191495 PeaBird
PeaBird's picture

I told myself that I would DEFINITELY buy some gold – real gold. Physical gold. Shiny, yellow, heavy gold. But of course, I didn’t. It was all too hard, frankly

That's why it's called "Hard" Money.

 

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 04:09 | 1191560 dumpster
dumpster's picture

gold

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 06:15 | 1191664 BigDuke6
BigDuke6's picture

Aye gold, 

let us not forget gold-fever, people have had it for thousands of years.  People die for it still and always will.

Many is the night i will say to the family as i lock myself in the office

'Don't disturb me i will polishing my gold.'

But seriously its nice to count through it now and again...

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 05:34 | 1191621 BlackholeDivestment
BlackholeDivestment's picture

 The Fed Pharaoh entombed the salves that built his golden coffin, then the plagues came. Does your door have the mark of the beast upon it? ...or have you accepted the fact that the time for the sustaining mercy of the blood of the Lamb is now upon this generation? The consumer pays the price in the end, when they realize they lost the laborer of the harvest. What fool on Earth would ever imagine to escape correction after dipping their brush in the cup that holds no mercy and is filled with the red color of the Fez? The short term gain offered in this Golden BTFD Cup is well represented by the Eagle of Lagash http://conspiracyclothes.com/nowheretorun/symbol.html and the double minded fool. Death will not pass over those that accept the mark of the beast. Who's faith is seal in agreement with the strong delusion of the Fed's Golden Pyramid, if not the wicked and the fool?

There was a time when the wisdom of 666 measures worth of gold in reserve held mercy, that time of that King has long passed away. There is no mercy in gold bitchez, there is judgment. Now you must be as wise as the serpent. Chairsatan knows the time of his short term gains was at the expense of QEternity. You heard his laughter rise over the houses. Why don't we just end the this New Age of the Federal Reserve's New Secular World Order, rise up, stand fast and do no harm? Are we not just suicidal maniacs in possession? How are we ever going to divest from the black hole when the gold seal of the bottomless pit is upon our door, and the Federal Eagle is risen above our home with no intention beyond just passing the worthless Buck like a deadly global plague in Egypt? http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9rI0kOrgcMU

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 14:24 | 1193232 akak
akak's picture

Fuuny, it LOOKS like English .....

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 15:33 | 1193594 BlackholeDivestment
BlackholeDivestment's picture

lol ...what Captain Obvious? the Eagle of Lagash? the ''moral hazard''? or the images as a whole hole, hee hee, haa haa haaaaa. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z0NVxohHfRU

The closest to an English Major I ever got was his daughter? Lovely and a bit posh but, not overly spicey. Quite a sweet person actually. What da yuh want fer nuthin honey? Enjoy the rubber biscuit while yuh can. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=14MZ8eiwcNE P.S. When flying the Fire Fox http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TVNaajyWqwY&feature=related don't think in English, you will never make it to Mother One. akak akak akak, akak akak ''boom!'', down you go chap. http://www.wired.com/dangerroom/2011/04/coming-soon-from-the-air-force-mind-reading-drones/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed:+wired/index+(Wired:+Index+3+(Top+Stories+2))&utm_content=Google+Reader

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 15:39 | 1193632 akak
akak's picture

.... but now increasingly less so.

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 06:08 | 1191653 Curtis LeMay
Curtis LeMay's picture


Morningstar writes: “If central banks decide to resume selling their gold reserves, such a move could be extremely detrimental for gold prices, given that current total central bank holdings (at about 30,000 tons) amount to roughly 12 years of current mine supply."

As the saying goes, what goes up...

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/investing/gold/8465642/The-gold-price-may-soon-suffer-vertigo.html

 

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 07:00 | 1191698 Nozza
Thu, 04/21/2011 - 14:02 | 1193137 Curtis LeMay
Curtis LeMay's picture

Fair play to you Nozza.

What struck me, hence my post, was the bit about central banks having a 12 year supply of gold output from mines. I hadn't seen it put that way in a while, and it is striking in a logical, down to earth sort of way.

Anyway, gold's too rich for my blood. Hell, to make any real money on it one needs to risk hundreds of thousands on it. No thanks.

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 08:38 | 1191830 Volaille de Bresse
Volaille de Bresse's picture

"Goldman Sachs recently advised investors to sell its profitable “CCCP” basket of commodities – crude oil, copper, cotton, platinum and soybeans. If the bank has called the market correctly, gold and silver are unlikely to be immune from a wider fall among commodities."

 

LOL and kiss my ass!

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 19:50 | 1194699 mkkby
mkkby's picture

NPR just did a story about how FDR took us off the gold standard despite every advisor counseling him against it.  Except for one "crank" agricultural economist, who he knew personally.  They concluded by saying he was right, because look how well we've done without it.  lol

Funny how even NPR has joined the MSM shills in their hypnosis of the masses.  They didn't bother to mention that the Great Depression lasted over a decade, while the 1920 depression lasted only 1 year on the gold standard.

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