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Third Consecutive Late Selloff Has Momos On Edge, As JOE Shorts Pummeled

Tyler Durden's picture




 

After two consecutive days of late day sell offs, today may have been the day that sealed it. After the market opened with its traditional low-volume melt up appeal, once again suckering in the straggler asset managers, it was followed by an increasingly more resonant tiptoeing toward the exists, as ever larger ES blocks were dumped, confirming that the larger institutions are increasingly taking profits during what used to be the domain of the 3:30 pm melt up. As we speculated yesterday, we have reason to believe that the ETF gamma trade has flipped (courtsy of massive amounts of SPY shorts outstanding) and at this point the HFT crew, with its perpetual bid side bias, is starting to lose out big to the nearly $2 trillion ETF market. Should this accelerate not even GETCO's DMM silent but deadly no volume levitation will do much. And unlike yesterday, today's sell off occured on a POMO day...

And incidentally, all those who followed David Einhorn into the second time is the charm short in St. Joe's, are likely not too happy after 1.6 million shares traded on what appears to be an attempt to force squeeze all the shorts out of the name.

And contrary to media attempts to explain the pop, the rumor that JOE was an aquisition target appeared over 6 hours ago as confirmed by our own tweet from around 10am. The jump did not occur until well later.

 

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Wed, 12/15/2010 - 17:17 | 809445 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Tiptoeing towards the exits...lol brings to mind old Tom n Jerry cartoons.

Wed, 12/15/2010 - 17:21 | 809458 mynhair
mynhair's picture

Harkin back to Tiny Tim, if you will.....

Tom Harkin and his tulip gang.

Wed, 12/15/2010 - 17:50 | 809579 Sancho Ponzi
Sancho Ponzi's picture

Denninger just posted a thread 'FBI Outed Breaking Into The US Internet', and now his site is down

Oops

Wed, 12/15/2010 - 17:53 | 809595 AR15AU
AR15AU's picture

WOW...  Thanks for the heads up on that...

Wed, 12/15/2010 - 18:10 | 809651 Sancho Ponzi
Sancho Ponzi's picture

The FBI allegedly paid some developers to design some backdoor vulnerabilities into a widely used platform. Man, the site is still down! Karl may be moving to Iceland sooner than he thought!

Wed, 12/15/2010 - 18:17 | 809679 Xibalba
Xibalba's picture

You're witnessing the end of an Empire.  Eat your heart out.

Wed, 12/15/2010 - 18:39 | 809746 inkt2002
inkt2002's picture

Does he have a twitter account?  Any updates?

Wed, 12/15/2010 - 18:47 | 809767 inkt2002
inkt2002's picture

Maybe it is not the FBI.  He probably cant afford a server after all his market calls.

Wed, 12/15/2010 - 19:44 | 809988 MountainHawk
MountainHawk's picture

That bastard is single handidly responsible for me missing out on the greatest rally of my lifetime. I cashed out my 401k from an old job and turned it into an IRA thinking the world was going to end mid way through last year. In the end, I was the greater fool.

Wed, 12/15/2010 - 20:53 | 810190 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Having a low opinion of Karl, I never paid much attention to his calls.  If you cashed out your 401K, what did you buy for your IRA?  You wouldn't be sad if you had bought gold or silver.  I'm wondering what else there could really be.

Wed, 12/15/2010 - 18:54 | 809777 Sancho Ponzi
Sancho Ponzi's picture

Per Facebook, there's been a major service provider/telco outage in his area. He should be back up soon. 

 

Correction: The problem is with the hosting company

 

Wed, 12/15/2010 - 17:19 | 809449 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

I think platinum had a good day, so anyone want to hate on that?

Wed, 12/15/2010 - 17:22 | 809460 mynhair
mynhair's picture

No.  Good play.

Wed, 12/15/2010 - 17:24 | 809467 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Something sure is setting up.  Right in the face of my calls.  I am sticking with them though.

Silver, snitches!

Wed, 12/15/2010 - 17:20 | 809453 Boilermaker
Boilermaker's picture

I think I'm the only one playing the REITs but, Jesus Christ, has that been out of control during the trading sessions.  Same routing, plunge, immediately jacked back up, plunge, jack up, plunge, jack up....sell off.

Wed, 12/15/2010 - 17:23 | 809461 Ragnarok
Ragnarok's picture

OT: BAC to settle with mortgage investors

 

 

 

 

Wed, 12/15/2010 - 17:25 | 809468 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Not o/t at all.

Wed, 12/15/2010 - 17:25 | 809469 Cdad
Cdad's picture

Dog,

I think Tyler meant "slipping out the back door of the Roach Motel," which is how I refer to trading action on SPY, after first determining that both the SPY and the VXX creation units machines are on the fritz and both issues are now responding to free market forces...which is something that neither fund is used to after months of shares constantly available at any price and at any time...in shocking ways.

Language differences aside, I think Tyler has it right...and as those guys sick out all those Euro dollars they been chucking back...well, I don't see how the dollar does not rally, knocking down all the sand castles on which the rally in the Roach Motel has been built.

But I'm a simple guy, you know, and maybe I don't get anything that is going on around me?  Maybe.

Wed, 12/15/2010 - 18:20 | 809675 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

I think its right. All these clowns knew they could buy about 2 years with outright BS. its about over right now and all the bubbles are about to get monkeyhammered by a dollar rising. Bonds are toxic, stocks are a joke. Heres what image comes to mind when I think about the stock markets today-
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MlfcF1I5e_g

Wed, 12/15/2010 - 17:26 | 809476 Ferg .
Ferg .'s picture

Interesting to see the selling pressure mount towards the close . Not that someone ( or rather something ) didn't attempt to ramp prices higher in the final hour . Tomorrow should be very interesting . If this is indeed a top then we should see some fairly sharp accelerations to the downside .

Wed, 12/15/2010 - 17:32 | 809498 mynhair
mynhair's picture

Go to cash now to front run the drop for EOY settlement.

Wed, 12/15/2010 - 17:27 | 809478 Rogerwilco
Rogerwilco's picture

But Harry and Robo said Santa was coming!

Wed, 12/15/2010 - 17:31 | 809491 Spitzer
Spitzer's picture

Robo and Harry are two very sick people, I would add Spalding also.

Wed, 12/15/2010 - 17:33 | 809502 mynhair
mynhair's picture

Where have they been wrong?

Disgusting, yes, but wrong?

Wed, 12/15/2010 - 18:01 | 809628 Spitzer
Spitzer's picture

They have been dead wrong about their reasoning for everything. US equities have lost out compared to foreign equities and gold has kicked US equities ass. Have you seen the Thai SET lately ? What about the Singapore dollar ?

I don't think people like you even realize that most inflationists (including the biggest one of all, Peter Schiff) ARE NOT BEARISH ON STOCKS.

Robo and Harry are in stocks for the wrong reasons. Their reasoning is dead wrong. A shitty US economy is not good for bonds. Why didn't Spains bonds rally as the unemployment rate went up ?

Wed, 12/15/2010 - 18:21 | 809690 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

And even the best stock chasers today will be incredibly lucky just to break even with purchasing power. Its all just an illusion in the stock markets, and I doubt Harry or any of the rest even own any stocks.

Thu, 12/16/2010 - 01:47 | 810838 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

Shh!  Harry is really an A.I. program (wikipedia: Eliza), but don't tell anyone, especially Harry! :>D

Wed, 12/15/2010 - 17:35 | 809511 Cdad
Cdad's picture

 

Spitzer,

I would add a comment about Spalding but will digress...for two reasons:

1.  Spalding is very excitable.

2.  Spalding said he would sell his shares in mining stocks to me.

As for Robo, I don't think he is sick, at all.  I just think he keeps confusing the past with the future.

And Harry...well, I think he may be suffering from zombification as a result of his dedication to the company called Apple.  It has happened to millions of Americans...to tell the truth.  I don't know anything about it, though, because I don't have an Apple anything.

Wed, 12/15/2010 - 17:37 | 809522 mynhair
mynhair's picture

He claimed (on MW) to be buying AAPL between 245 and 260, where is it now?  When he sells is the key.

Wed, 12/15/2010 - 18:03 | 809635 Spitzer
Spitzer's picture

I shut Spalding up rather quickly a few days ago when he was on a perma-TBTF-dollar-bull rant. Sometimes I don't have the time to put him in his place or at least make him think

Wed, 12/15/2010 - 18:20 | 809674 Spalding_Smailes
Spalding_Smailes's picture

You what ?

 

We can have it out now but after this will you stop with your EURO love and all this crap about 3rd world reserve currency what iffff's..... Singapore, Vietnam ...??? The hot money pour out of asia the first sign of trouble. What are you smoking ? How will the world unwind 1 quadrillion in dollar denominated debt. What balance sheetcan support this & WHEN ?

 

Read up on the inflation pouring into Europe, Tyler will post about this topic soon, read up on China and inflation.

Uncle Ben = Pimp.

Wed, 12/15/2010 - 18:23 | 809698 Cdad
Cdad's picture

Spalding,

In through the nose...

Out through the mouth...

Easy now.  Remain calm.

 

Wed, 12/15/2010 - 18:46 | 809724 Spalding_Smailes
Spalding_Smailes's picture

I cant do it any longer, god bless america, ben, everyone.

Spitzer is right run out and buy euros ....Like Jay Z'

Psss. pppppss boom' boom 'push your money over sea's Lol'.  I be tell'n you toss out doz dollars buyz euro's dooog. That moron lost his ass ....Hows that euro outlook Jay-Z ? One rate, for all. His pro- euro rap song~ http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h-lf85UBU5Q

 

Wed, 12/15/2010 - 20:56 | 810196 tmosley
tmosley's picture

If you think Singapore is third world, then you are dumber than you act.

Wed, 12/15/2010 - 18:22 | 809645 Spalding_Smailes
Spalding_Smailes's picture

I had to sell VGGCF at 93 cents on tues. they merged with another firm and only trade in Canada ( Im on tdameritrade ...)... Bought at 63 cents.

You can look they send me a notice on monday.

The only stocks I have X,ZEUS,MT,JPM,DB,HOLI,JOBS,DRYS,AMCN & AIG at the end of yesterday after 4 days of big volume.

A few from China banks,industrials.

Wed, 12/15/2010 - 18:41 | 809748 Cdad
Cdad's picture

Spalding,

As your ZH brother, I really have to mention that owning X is probably a really bad idea.  US steel is a company that is totally weighed down by long standing legacy costs.  They might be competitive on the world wide scene...in maybe 20 years...after those old farts have rolled over, if you know what I mean.

As well, are you now saying you sold your gold miners?

Cdad

Wed, 12/15/2010 - 19:23 | 809835 Spalding_Smailes
Spalding_Smailes's picture

Thanks. I only had 1 miner , yes it delisted.

US Steel has not even started rolling yet wait till Q2 next year.

Cat has never been this busy everyone planning for jim rogers 20 year commodity run ag & mining. All the auto builders must build new models ford,gm,toy,hon, all here. A friend of mine owns a metals cnc shop 140 guys. All the suppliers (ryerson,castle,ect.) have nothing on the shelf. When ryerson orders metal from us steel it not a small order we are talking 6 month out. The dollar has been dropping and as things pickup around the globe more work is coming back to USA shops. Many world class manufactures in USA still, and the USA running at 50-60% is still a big economy compared to rest of the world. Cat just bought bucyrus also -Welcome to Bucyrus | Bucyrus International

 

  • Joy Global a USA firm Qreport---------------------Joy Global said fourth-quarter bookings rose by 48 percent, which indicates mining customers would continue to raise capital expenditure to address a strong demand for commodities such as copper and coal.  "Mining companies have announced capital expenditures that are up 30 to 35 percent this year ... announced capital expenditures for 2011 are expected to rise another 15 to 20 percent."
  • Joy Global, known for its giant shovels and draglines, forecast fiscal 2011 earnings of $5.00-$5.30 a share, on revenue of $3.9-$4.1 billion.  Analysts on average were expecting earnings of $4.79 a share, on revenue of $3.86 billion, according to Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.
  • For the fourth quarter, the company reported earnings of $1.39 a share, on revenue of $1.05 billion.

 

 

 

Wed, 12/15/2010 - 19:40 | 809974 I Am The Unknow...
I Am The Unknown Comic's picture

Spalding did you unload your VXZ today?  I'm not ready to let mine go yet.  I'm waiting for the "VXX units creation machine" (that Cdad mentions) to be turned back on.  I'm thinking maybe options expiration?

Wed, 12/15/2010 - 17:37 | 809493 Cdad
Cdad's picture

Roger,

Santa is coming.  However, it is not clear that he will be bringing toys for everyone. 

If the criminal syndicate known as Wall Street continues to have its way with the American economic system, after Santa has come and gone, the only thing that might be left in the stocking is $3+ per gallon gasoline.

It is a crappy thing for Wall Street to put in average Joe's stocking...but it seems like said criminal syndicate does not care...which strikes me as odd, to tell the truth.

Wed, 12/15/2010 - 17:33 | 809499 Robslob
Robslob's picture

Santa is coming...with a vengeance! HoHoHo...crash

Thu, 12/16/2010 - 01:51 | 810840 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

From Futurama (Santa):  "Your mistletoe is no match for my TOW Missile!"

Wed, 12/15/2010 - 17:36 | 809518 papaswamp
papaswamp's picture

So tomorrow even more of a sell off and Friday a bloodbath? I only pick Friday since most schools let out for the holidays and the algos will get shut down for the vacation period....or not.

Wed, 12/15/2010 - 17:40 | 809531 mynhair
mynhair's picture

bloodbath = 12/27, then miracle recovery 12/28.

Though I have a bad tendency to be a day off.

Wed, 12/15/2010 - 17:37 | 809520 doomandbloom
doomandbloom's picture

i am having a treja-vu

Wed, 12/15/2010 - 17:37 | 809525 inkt2002
inkt2002's picture

Does anyone have a database showing all daily returns on POMO days (and an hour by hour returns)???

Wed, 12/15/2010 - 17:38 | 809526 johnnymustardseed
johnnymustardseed's picture

Silver doing its JPM thing again, up two days, down two days. Wow they never give up!

Wed, 12/15/2010 - 17:38 | 809532 HarnyWanger
HarnyWanger's picture

Why even bother looking at graphs? Even if I had, I would believe my own eyes before some doomer's chart. What my eyes are telling me is that my products are selling better than they ever have! This means that: unemployment has fallen, incomes have risen, and the recession has been over for months -- just like the people who really know have been saying all along! All in all, just another greenlight.

Wed, 12/15/2010 - 17:40 | 809538 Spalding_Smailes
Spalding_Smailes's picture

Did things slow down yet by you Harry ? Whats the mall like did you go shopping yet ?

Wed, 12/15/2010 - 18:26 | 809707 SRV - ES339
SRV - ES339's picture

Lots of traffic in the malls... they're all checking out the 40, 50, 60% off signs getting bigger every day... Harry must be in food stamps... I hear the market in them is booming!

Wed, 12/15/2010 - 18:38 | 809740 New_Meat
New_Meat's picture

Dude, there ain't no more "food stamps".  They are "Auntie Zeitunie Cards" now, because, after all, if you are on "relief" (another FDR era term that is being expunged) then, well, your self-esteem might be challenged.  Can't have that.

Wed, 12/15/2010 - 19:07 | 809832 snowball777
snowball777's picture

I think you mean Harny, not Harry.

Wed, 12/15/2010 - 19:37 | 809961 geminiRX
geminiRX's picture

Haha - these guys got punked!

Wed, 12/15/2010 - 17:41 | 809539 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Why even bother posting?

Wed, 12/15/2010 - 18:22 | 809694 taraxias
taraxias's picture

Because he's a troll, that's why.

Wed, 12/15/2010 - 17:41 | 809543 mynhair
mynhair's picture

Harry, is it true you are selling igloos to Eskimos?

You are that good at slinging shit.

Wed, 12/15/2010 - 17:56 | 809608 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Harry sells igloos in Arizona.

Wed, 12/15/2010 - 17:44 | 809558 Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

Is an ounce of preemption worth a pound of shut the fuck up? Maybe.

Wed, 12/15/2010 - 17:48 | 809574 Buzz Fuzzel
Buzz Fuzzel's picture

Harny In Wonderland!

How much you getting paid to post here Harny?

Wed, 12/15/2010 - 17:56 | 809606 TheProphet
TheProphet's picture

Please tell me you're being sarcastic.

Wed, 12/15/2010 - 17:58 | 809616 Ferg .
Ferg .'s picture

This is obviously not the eternal optimist of ZH , HarryWanger . Rather it appears that Harry has received an acolyte .

Wed, 12/15/2010 - 17:39 | 809534 FunkyMonkeyBoy
FunkyMonkeyBoy's picture

After hours on the DOW have recovered all of todays red close already.

Wed, 12/15/2010 - 17:46 | 809555 mynhair
mynhair's picture

This surprises you how?  What amazes me, is that even with all this POMO money, the crooks can't extend the range.

Wed, 12/15/2010 - 17:53 | 809594 Ferg .
Ferg .'s picture

S&P attempting to do the same .

Wed, 12/15/2010 - 17:45 | 809561 wiskeyrunner
wiskeyrunner's picture

Overnight tonight ES will rise @ 2:30 cst just like it does 90% of the time. Today was a down day, so tonight is 99% guaranteed to be up, just watch.

Wed, 12/15/2010 - 17:59 | 809621 Ferg .
Ferg .'s picture

Lately the ramp up in futures has started during the European session . Asia has been flat - negative  .

Wed, 12/15/2010 - 18:02 | 809630 wiskeyrunner
wiskeyrunner's picture

Correct about 2:30am cst. This has been going on for years/ Half of the gains in the ES futures comes from the overnight sessions.

Wed, 12/15/2010 - 18:09 | 809652 Ferg .
Ferg .'s picture

It's predictable but sure is tiresome .

Wed, 12/15/2010 - 17:46 | 809563 bbtrader
bbtrader's picture

Wow, 2 consecutive H-Omen days and not a peep from TD.

Wed, 12/15/2010 - 17:47 | 809570 crosey
crosey's picture

Yeah, not looking good.  POMO, expiration week, right before the Holiday....there should be an upward bias.

Adios until January.

Wed, 12/15/2010 - 17:48 | 809572 mynhair
mynhair's picture

Need CD to do a three part analysis of why I always take the opposite side of this pig Market.

It QE's up, I short.  It dives down, I go long.

Not working so well, as my timing has been off for 2 effing years.

Wed, 12/15/2010 - 17:58 | 809614 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

I wonder the ratio that is Bernanke's sadism vs rationale, or does he only rationalize sadism?

Wed, 12/15/2010 - 20:11 | 810076 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

I'll see your three part analysis and raise you another 2. :>)

Wed, 12/15/2010 - 18:01 | 809624 wiskeyrunner
wiskeyrunner's picture

The December index futures contract expires Friday. Expect more of the same. There is simply no way they are going to let this market correct after spending trillions to prop up this jobless economy. 

My thoughts once Ron Paul takes on his new position of watching over the Federal Reserve. This market will keep going up that will take the wind out of Ron Paul sails. Everything will start to get better, and the Federal Reserve will look like our saviors. No one will pay any attention to Paul when the market and economy are doing better, I'm confident this is the strategy of the elite bankers and there dealer the Federal Reserve.

Wed, 12/15/2010 - 18:54 | 809787 andybev01
andybev01's picture

Either that or he will be found swinging by Mark Madoffs' dog collar.

Wed, 12/15/2010 - 19:16 | 809863 delacroix
delacroix's picture

everything will start to get better? did you take a sip of the kool-aid?

Wed, 12/15/2010 - 18:41 | 809741 Common_Cents22
Common_Cents22's picture

Santa Ben's new rule:   "buy the rumor, buy more on the fact!"

or borrow from doritos, "spend all you want, we'll make more!"

or lay's, "can't have just 1 trillion"

Wed, 12/15/2010 - 19:46 | 809996 I Am The Unknow...
I Am The Unknown Comic's picture

nice!

Wed, 12/15/2010 - 19:17 | 809869 SwingForce
SwingForce's picture

I suggest you check out the land holdings of St Joe before you short it. This is the old FL East Coast Railroad minus the railroad (sold to fortress). 577,000 acres owned.

Wed, 12/15/2010 - 21:27 | 810286 banksterhater
banksterhater's picture

Gators included?

Wed, 12/15/2010 - 19:38 | 809969 TapeReader
TapeReader's picture

We monitor order flow within the electronic futures markets...and yes, order flow momentum has turned negative.

You can see some graphic examples of the selling that is hitting the tape on the afternoon here:

http://algofutures.com/blog/a-dangerous-new-high-modern-tape-reading-101/

Hope that you find this interesting.

 

 

Wed, 12/15/2010 - 21:23 | 810272 banksterhater
banksterhater's picture

Very interesting. I've seen the stealth selling. First closed end high yield started a month ago, munis, more high yield, bigcap tech, and today they started dumping MLPs, see AMJ, these are way overbought and yields aren't even as great as taking profits.

Wed, 12/15/2010 - 21:35 | 810316 greenewave
greenewave's picture

Tired of being SCREWED by the FEDERAL GOVERNMENT and LIED to by PRESIDENT OBAMA, BERNANKE, JAMIE DIMON and the other host of CRONIES??

Then Watch the YouTube Video “AMERICAN DREAM DEAD ~ DENIAL, THEN PANIC” at (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7PFqAoqrPOs)

Anonymous-

It’s time you STOPPED getting SCREWED by the BIG RED WHITE and BLUE !!

Wed, 12/15/2010 - 22:25 | 810440 Beatscape
Beatscape's picture

Let's assume Harny and Spalding are right--the US economy has completely turned the corner and is getting ready to roar. That could be exactly what the long end of the bond market is saying as well as rates are spiking upwards.

But wait a second, what happens to the foreclosed moribund real estate market when rates continue to ramp upwards? People are already having difficulty even qualifying for loans with the new much higher loan standards the banks are adhering too--higher rates just makes it even harder and it kills the re-fi use-my-home-as-an-ATM market.

And, if the economy picks up speed it will stoke the fires of inflation--just what the Bernank as been pushing for. If inflation truly picks up speed, the Bernank will be forced to raise rates even more.

A wise market sage used to always tell me, "equities cannot sustain a rally in the face of rising interest rates."

Wed, 12/15/2010 - 23:47 | 810631 Buck Johnson
Buck Johnson's picture

You are correct, they are tip toeing to the exits while the suckers are conned into buying in.  They know that this game can't keep going on and it's about to end.  So in order to get their money out without warning the sheep, they say one thing and do something else.  One morning I'm going to wake up and see the market closed because of circuit breakers cutting in from the massive selling of stock once the black swans come into view.

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