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Third Hindenburg Omen Confirmation
The market is now down 3.4% from the August 12 open, when the first Hindenburg Omen was sighted, on route to validating the prediction of a 5% drop. However, in the process it continues getting worse and worse - today we just got a third H.O. confirmation, and a 4th standalone HO event, as the market seems to be getting ever more schizophrenic, with increasing new highs and new lows, while the undercurrent is one of ever increasing implied correlation as noted earlier, as ever more asset managers simply rely on levered beta "strategies" to redeem their year. Unlike 2009, however, this time the trick won't fly, as it appears the market's downside potential is finally starting to be appreciated.
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So for every Hindenburg Omen do we get to knock off 5% ...?
Tyler, this is actually the fourth confirmation.
The third confirmation was the USD 10 week moving average breaking the resistance at 83.22 on last friday. EW relationships suggest that this rally should go to 103.54, before extensions. If it follows its normal cycle pattern, we may see its top near election day.
Atlas shrugging?
Ladies & gentlemen, Atlas has left, I repeat, left the building...
Who is John Galt?
traderjoe
Atlas Shrugged (2011) Paul Johansson ... John GaltI think I've written this before, but here goes. I'm John Galt and so is my wife.
I am your wife. Get off the computer and come to dinner.
you should say, come to bed.
You are all ideologic folks with no sense of reality. Go ahead. Live in an Ayn Rand book--it's utopia thinking and totally unrelated to the human condition. I got over her when I was 17. I realized her idealization of how people act was totally fiction. In other words, she was/is full of shit.
When you are ready to join the real world it will be nice. You can all hang on to your idiotic idealogy all you want. Ayn Rand was an asshole and if there is anyone to prove it on this earth today it is Alan Greenspan. People generally do not take responsible for their actions, do not clean of their messes in big business (taxpayers do) and above all the almighty dollar as your shrine?
What a crock. Try loving your children and living a decent life.
There's a saying in group dynamics. If you change just one ingrediant you change the whole thing. For instance pies. You can make pies several differnt ways but if you stick to a recipe generally you can completely change the flavor of the pie just by using a different fruit. Apple versus cherry etc.
The universe is stuck on a centralized power king model. It doesn't work. You can read mythology about the king model in aquarian archetype construction known as the cup knight mythology. Read up on it. It's shows the glaring never ending inadequacies of the entire system. You meet the king repair the shield but it's never really quite repaired. Or the king has a lance wound in his side and you have to heal it. By knowing exactly what he needs to drink. Any version of the story will show you that it's a nihilistic endeavor. There will never be any wholeness or completeness in the king model. It simply builds up dominant forces and they spend thier time trying to fuck over anything that threatens thier dominance.
A limited life philosophy will only work with other limited life philosophy participants. Under the present system any bright idea that doesn't match the goals hidden or open of the king will be stomped out of existance. As it is the unlimited power participants will simply shrink and impose on them out of existance.
So what has to happen is everyone who doesn't share a group reality will necessarily get kicked the fuck out of it. That doesn't mean they can't persue thier own group reality it just means that they can't do it with everyone. The powers that be have no compunction about sharing their reality in a lying deceiptful way. I just had a dream the other night where my brother was crippled from an accident and they were doing a very good job of simulating him. He was drinking soda pop. Which he doesn't do but I noticed blood on his arm where the tops had been rubbing the skin off. He had partial hand on one arm and nub at the forearm on the other one and his arms where all rubbery. I asked him if he wanted a kind of pop and he kept putting energy out that he wanted to do it himself. He was being very stoic and brave about the whole thing.
The pop bubbled up and spilled all over while I was trying to pour him some and they tried their best to convey to me that I'm making a mess of things and fucking up after going through a titanic effort of modeling my brother in a very good acting job and trying their best to get me in a sympathetic framework. Because I'm not sympathetic at all. I'm much much nastier than those psycopaths and socipaths. Thing is I'm not dishonest or taking on their passive aggressive tendencies.
So before you confuse being ideological and unrealistic with simply picking the wrong reality to be deeply convictive of. Just remember. You're going to be expected to have enough experience and sense to know where you belong.
I'm not idealizing the people that will leave. I'm trusting them and it comes from experience with them. Some fuckface who won't even use his real identity or try to communicate anything meaningful other than what manipulation they deem is necessary right now. Is going to get fucked off. I'm not going to be your good employee. You're good servant. You're loyal soldier. I'm going to be never ending pain and suffering to every violent or harmfully manipulative gang.
And I'm not going to take some peoples or some "things" communications at face value. I'm going to drill into their fucking skull and find what I need to find. I'm not going to go along to get along. Or put on a fake smile or a happy face. We're going to deal and confront the problems that exist or we're just going to stop talking about them.
So pick a good pie howard. One low in shit, cause you're going to have eat it.
your heavy, must be a F U L L M O O N .
Ask not what was done wrong in Rome, but what the Visigoths Did Right!
If I rearrange the letters of DIOCLETIAN I arrive with BEN BERNANKE. Amazing! After two thousand years he has been re-born as the Federal Reserve Chairman!
Historical Humor, hahaha!
+++
this must to be told
some people have taken pure bullshit
and turned it into gold"
"leave the driving" by neil young
Speaking of gold... Interesting view on gold and the OMEN!
Great chart going back to 1978 in relation to the HO.
Playing a Return of the Hindenburg Omen
nice post. thanks
Cue the scary music...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bta0lMT9nT4
Lol. This one still kills me...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y8Kyi0WNg40
Beware of the penguins.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EVWtq-_VYk8
The Original Scary Music:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_pY08e_tdtA&feature=related
Peter O'Toole, Ultimate Scream:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ryVhaJnhLFE
nice+
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rAivJzbaokI&feature=related
looks like one of those prairie dogs that try and kill me on the bike path. they run right out in front of you. dumb doo doo's. assisted living for the prairie dogs, no kill rule. they need to stop breeding.
Thanks Numbernone... wow.. that was hilarious.
Clicked on it and thought my cell phone was ringing.
In a supermarket a couple years ago, my phone rang and the woman in line in front of me turned in horror to look at me, and ran out of the store screaming, "That's a sacrilege! You will pay for it!!"
Hindenburg omens come in clusters. They promise sister of death face sucking killer squid results. (e.g. seen any zepplins lately?)
Kinda like headaches -- for which there is no cure.
Today the GAB network was ripping apart Bob Pissonme. Bob was pushing Toll Brothers. Desperation at it's finest.
The death cross didn't kill us... just saying!
No, but the Cardinal Cross just may have.
Oh and by kill I assume you do not mean physically.
Poem for the day, if it is such:
In the ability to correctly manifest change, if it be with all of one's heart or even only an inkling, the effort proves the closest eptitude of thruth there is.
*snap*snap*snap*snap*
the cardinal cross is baked in, the ingredients are the end product, unfolding daily, in harmony with All that Is.
indeed
So, at what point does it go from "Hindenburg Omen," to "Hindenburg Confirmation?"
Techincally, we went from having a Omen to a confirmed Omen already. A second sighting within the given timeframe is the confirmation. Of course it does not guarantee a market crash or even correction. Just means the odds are higher.
Thank you.
Much higher but not a given. For example, a 77.8 % chance of greater than a 5% decline in 4 months, a 55.6% chance of a greater than 8% decline, a 40.8 % chance of greater than 10% decline and a 30% chance of greater than a 15% decline in 4 months or less.
We're talking odds here that are much higher than they normally are from day to day. And like I said the other day, these are average odds. Considering how bad things are with currency problems, leverage problems, jobs and etc, I would consider these percentages to be low.
But that's just me.
Agreed. Context is everything.
Las Vegas exists by having the odds stacked in their favor. As long as gamblers come, Vegas will live! CD's odds are leaning towards a downturn. My money follows.
"For example, a 77.8 % chance of greater than a 5% decline in 4 months"
Is it more accurate to say:
77.8% of the time that we've seen these omens there has been a greater than 5% decline within 5 months?
I'm genuinely asking, I have no expertise with technical analysis.
Yep, like "35% chance of rain."
1/3 of the time it will rain?
we'll get 1/3 of the rain?
1/3 of the area will get rain?
- Ned
Right... but that I've always taken like "35% of the time present conditions have resulted in rain"
Or in my part of the country "we spun the wheel and it stopped at 35% chance of rain"
Good question. The actual answer is that in any given point in the forecast area, there is a 35% chance of rain at that spot.
Not that the weather gamblers go out of their way to explain that to us when they use it every day.
When I was growing up, we had a weather "forecaster" named Don Kent. My uncle used to wonder-"Doesn't he have a window to look out?"
Don used to use the term "radiational cooling" in the winter, when it was cold and dry, indicating it was going below 0 DegF. I wonder what that meant?
- Ned
Okay, I'll take the bait. I used to make a lousy living reading weather forecasts aloud, a lot. So I tried to understand what the hell I was talking about.
Radiational cooling just means loss of heat to space. This is most noticed at night when it's already damned cold. Without a nice blanket of clouds to radiate the heat back down to earth, it gets even colder overnight.
Hence, clear and cold overnight.
Now, here's Don with the sports....
lol, I started to pick a ...er... started to stimulate a lively conversation. But the OT Nazi's would have been right if it had been in that forum. Tried to take it ouside, but got the deflecting response. Don't know if the BC guy and I will cross paths.
Please do join the festivities.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Don_Kent_%28meteorologist%29
(and still don't know why the term has disappeared)
- Ned
This isn't technical analysis, technically it's statistical analysis. But I get your point and yes, the way you phrased it would make it more understandable and still be correct.
Thank you for translating. :>)
Well I learnt something today :)
Here is my expert analysis ( i am skilled at restating the obvious) --the market will either go up or it will go down, or it will stay the same--and you can mark my words on this....( i am also skilled at trying to be funny with my not funny stuff)
N I C E
thank you,
my exact sentiments.
e_goldstein
When we see Threat Level Mauve, a Willis level event. A Nakatomi iteration rapidly evolving into Ebola closure.
What you talkin' 'bout, Willis?
Maybe the home builders will finally kick it this time around. Was waiting for it to happen in 08/09 and it never did...
That's because they not only carried losses forward, they were also refunded some of the taxes they paid during the boom, giving them "earnings."
Thanks TARP!
When primary 3 is done, they will rename the "Hindenburg Omen" the "Hiroshima Omen"
the omen precedes the "disaster", ie crash and burn
http://www.airships.net/hindenburg/disaster
The last time I got as excited as the market seems to be, my son was conceived...........repeatedly.
What do you think the market's cooking up for us? Another bun in the oven or satans revenge?
Cognitive Dissonance
Wow, you haven't gotten it up in ten years. Dude they have meds for that, very many meds.
25 years, but who's counting other than you?
ME
Battered and bruised, will investors keep plowing into bonds to avoid the wolf market or are wolves setting themselves up for the next big payday? Me thinks it's the latter, but I empathize with this poor fella:
When the bond bubble bursts, and doelarrs are better served as party napkins, monie will move to gold, because as the old and senile Soros said, "Eet iz dee ultimate baubble." By ultimate, we mean final.
And by the way, if that is a picture of you, how did you keep your shoes so polished?
It's a bubble filled with concrete.
Quite solid if you let it set a while.
No, seriously, he really meant Bauble, as in "The entire US economy is now nothing more than another jewel in my pointly crown."
"A mere bag of shells." -- Ralph Kramden
Do you have a catalyst in mind? Announcement of QE2?
I have a few downside catalysts I can think of, and most start with a d*fault.
Trader, the catalyst will be simple. After the stock market steals average Joe's money, the smart money will buy in and ramp stocks. Remember, where is the smart money invested during the crash? Bonds. Yes, the herd will leave bonds and pile into stocks. Interest rates will spike and the bond bubble will pop!
I hope you bought the dip Leo, we only have New Home Sales tomorrow, Jobless Thrusdays, and GDP Friday. I'm sure your buys will "SOLARZ" those days.
I picked up really small long position on apple, couldn't help myself. It's all a roll of the dice.
My AAPL Puts are rocking pretty hard.
Leo! I tried to warn you that the beta part was over! I guess you didn't hedge! In more positive news, AAPL is looking rancid. :)
And what about that jobs report next Friday? It's about time we create some jobs!
Why? Does someone have work that needs doing?
I don't understand the meaning of your post. Are you cheerleading, or expecting bad news and pissed?
Your avatar is repulsive...pls change it!
i said, n o PICKLES†
What? No videos of Greeks frolicking on the beach?
I doubt they're Greek but this might help soothe that Hindenburg hangover:
Wow thanks Leo, the whore on the left with the tramp stamp real does have great legs & look at her ass. I hope Robo is going to give us some video now also.... :P
Damn, just got a hell of a crick in my neck !!
http://img841.imageshack.us/img841/8771/90degreesheadturncuteki.jpg
Oh yea, Boats and Ho's LOL
Is this where our IMF bailout funds went? LOL
um, seriously, do we ever need to build another goddamn house in this country again? we can't even move the ones we got
Field of Dreams II:
In a helicopter!
How is new Mommy? Hope everything went well.
Still waiting. I thought last night was going to be it. :(
I feel for you. My wife started having contractions with our second on a Sunday afternoon. Sunday night we went in, getting closer together, 45 miles from hospital. Wednesday morning, new baby.
I've never been so tired. /sarcasm
Good luck to you. You can call the new guy Coop.
This will actually be our first girl, but I'll keep it in mind. :) Thanks for the luck!
What are you going to call it?
Boy = Ben? Timmay? Tyler? oh,oh,oh, I know. Jonny Jizzpants. Perfect!
Girl = ?? Marla? MScreant? Velo? Not so sure about this one....
Oh, now I read it's gonna be a girl. Suggestions people??
Dagny or Scout.
M A R L A †
keep it in the bun as long as you can, more healthy.
I love u guys, so funny. Made my day, ah I love watching this pile of shit collapse.
And don't forget all the houses that the banks own & haven't listed yet, a shadow over-supply. If you add in all those it's worse yet.
i was stomping my feet this wHOLE past decade, that is all that is
made in america. really.
My God, this is well said:
"Robert Prechter once again kicked open the door to the media and the junior deflationists followed right along in his wake. All good for our plan, as we have been awaiting the deflation 'event', 'impulse' or 'scare' all along. This would be the event that triggers new inflationary policy, the likes of which the mainstream media propaganda robots are now increasingly demanding. The Fed just happens to have the ammo now - unlike in the spring when yields were threatening to break out - to continue the great inflation.
But there is an issue that potentially muddies the analysis. The question 'to what extent is Bernanke supporting the bond?' is an important one. Because if he is THE buyer of last resort, this is nothing more than an incestuously manufactured deflation mirage with the implication that our big picture view (long term) of breakout inflation expectations could arrive sooner rather than later; perhaps even in the intermediate as opposed to long term.
Think about the implications of the United States buying its own debt obligations. Think about Enron and the many billionaires who parachuted out of the cockpits of the varied financial Ponzi schemes in the run up to 2008's crash. Think about conventional financial services providers putting people in Treasury Bonds right now. These debt obligations are intrinsically worthless because they can never be repaid; at least not without setting fire to the currency, in which case T Bond 'investors' will be eaten alive by rising yields.
Now think about the 'transitional' asset class, the precious metals and in particular, gold. As far as stocks go, think about the one sector that stands to gain from an environment of a decelerating economy that is in need of more inflationary policy. As the paper wizard attempts to blow smoke and use mirrors to keep traditional asset markets afloat, the gold miners gain leverage and revaluation as gold's 'real' price - as measured in many commodities and asset markets - increases in the contraction and/or deflationary environment.
The gold stocks should outperform as we transition from the short and/or intermediate term pretense of deflation to our inflationary future in the longer term. At some point, I expect the digital and paper money created basically out of nowhere during the 2008 panic and its ongoing aftermath to result in a new world order, which sees inflated currencies that denominate a relative lack of productivity in areas that are on the decline, and sees areas of resource and productivity attracting capital."
http://www.safehaven.com/article/17941/prechter-masks-for-halloween-nftrh-short-term-view
Sooooooooo Goooooooooood Thanks. Junior Deflationist. LOL.
3rd Omen is like waving a red flag in front of the bulls. Can almost see the market turn now and rally into month end, especially with Bernanke speaking at Jackson Hole this week. QE2 coming soon?
We need about three weeks of a slow market rise with the PMs making new highs. and Kudlow smiling every day about the one dip recovery. This would make it cheaper to buy some ETF leveraged shorts on Treasuries, financials and the market indexes. If only Johnny Bravo was here.
or only like -1x, if you are in it for longer than, oh, a very short time. - Ned
Robert Thorn: If there were anything wrong, you'd tell me, wouldn't you?
Kathy Thorn: Wrong? What could be wrong with our child, Robert? We're the beautiful people, aren't we?
Interesting comment from wikipedia (for what its worth):
"Because of the specific and seemingly random nature of the Hindenburg Omen criteria, the phenomenon may be simply a case of overfitting. That is, by backtesting through a large data set with many different variables, correlations can be found that do not really have predictive significance. The Omen is at best an imperfect technical indicator that is a work in progress"
I'd like to try to overfit myself into Mandy.
Mmmmmandy....
So, you like the bleached-blonde slutty type? Interesting.
bleached-blonde
hi-lights, R O C K Y
Mandy:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GK8-gZVkYsk
I'm sorry. I'm so sorry...
Love Barry's hair.
love his blue and of course his vest. love men in vests. barry's not my type, but M K is.
The main factor measured by the HO is investor confusion. When people don't know where to go, they will eventually leave the market altogether.
Is there anything positive anywhere....? Even the bears are depressed.... I mean Holy Shit.....! Everything just really sucks the big one..... I had the right premise, I made all the right moves.... I can't be that cynical.... Ciao, Econolcious
Too bad that line won't make the front page of any serious newspaper...
And then there's the old adage that when the most optimistic person in the world has turned pessimistic, the market has reached the bottom.
Helix, your mission is to WATCH LEO, when he switches, let us all know. You CAN do it. Thanks,
- Ned
No more Hindy's for awhile.
10 week MA is now falling.
Afterhours will be exciting regarding Ireland now
Do you think it's time to buy(more) GOLD?...............as in Today.
SPARTANS TONIGHT WE DINE IN HELL!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Equities market is forgetting Ben just wants everyone to buy a house, any house with a 2.5% mortgage. Funny a low payment with the possibility of depreciating more than you pay in 30 years on P and I. Like GM zero financing and the car drops 60% in 5 years. Whaaat!!!
The fascist, oligarchal con job has relegated reality to a remote corner of the universe. It will return with a vengeance.
Just to throw some fun in the mix...a tropical wave is getting better organized and anticipated to take a different path than Danielle (which incidentally had her track shifted farther west today....don't go to Bermuda).
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo/two_atl.gif
http://www.skeetobiteweather.com/archive/model/AL962010mlts.gif?533043581
dang, butterfly wings - Ned
My housekeeper told me the Sun is coming closer to the Earth and this signals the end of time as foretold in Revelations. Look for 666 in the S&P.
Then what's the point of housekeeping?
Your housekeeper and the Bible are right, but it's several million years away. Party on.
"Eliptical Orbituary"? lol
Looks like the PPT did its job today in staunching the developing crash...they just didn't have the balls to put it into a green close...but there is always tomorrow.
Those jerks did manage to miss ALL MY STOCK THAT WENT DOWN LIKE A IRANIAN SCUD!
I bet those morons where watching porn again...
Anyone know what happen to the EURO on the close?
You are all forgetting the most serious omen of all, the dreaded Time Wave Zero omen.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YpFB1iVPAt0
I'm sure you're not authorized to mention that. Someone will be getting in touch with you. Don't leave town.
where's my Tin Foil hat ???????????
Look in the car. That's where I usually leave mine.
A grim outlook sent shares of medical device maker Medtronic Inc. tumbling more than 10% Tuesday, helping drag down stocks throughout the health-care sector in a broadly bearish session for U.S. equities. I wonder if the big hedgies are dumping or buying more at these levels. Check out Q2 holdings. Renaissance Tech held 6,281,542 shares.
Leo Kolivakis wrote:
"A grim outlook sent shares of medical device maker Medtronic Inc. tumbling more than 10% Tuesday..."
Demographics is in their long-term favor. My 2-cents.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Medtronic
Unless that Death Panel stuff really has a kernel of truth to it ....
Principles for Allocation of Scarce Medical Interventions, The Lancet, Jan.
31, 2009
Govind Persad, Alan Wertheimer, Ezekiel J Emanuel
http://www.scribd.com/doc/18280675/Principles-for-Allocation-of-Scarce-M...
Dr. Ezekiel "Zeke" Jonathan Emanuel MD Ph.D (brother of Rahm) is an American
National Institutes of Health bioethicist and fellow at the nonprofit
bioethics research institute The Hastings Center. He has been called a
leading opponent of legalized euthanasia, sometimes called state-assisted
suicide, and is a proponent of a universal health care.
He now holds the position of Director of the Clinical Bioethics Department
at the U.S. National Institutes of Health. Currently, Emanuel is acting as
Special Advisor for Health Policy to Peter Orszag, the Director of the
Office of Management and Budget. The Office of Management and Budget's role
is to assist the White House in the preparation and administration of the
federal budget.
soylent green, sheeple.
Rahm's brother talk to Rahm? nah.
- Ned
DosZap wrote: on Tue, 08/24/2010 - #541344"SPARTANS TONIGHT WE DINE IN HELL!!!!!!!!!!!!!"
Dienekes wrote:
"The Spartan Dienekes was told the Persian archers were so numerous that when they fired their volleys, their arrows would blot out the sun.
He responded with, “So much the better, we'll fight in the shade”.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Laconic_phrase
I'm short , so it hurts me to say this..but regarding the new highs and lows component of this, all the highs were either preferred stocks or exchange traded bonf funds..i'd feel better if there were many more real companies on the list
Preview of Fed - Jackson Hole meeting:
http://www.gifbin.com/bin/320sw0sw7847.gif
How fitting!
"Investors! There's quantitative easing down there!"
Hydrogen-filled zeppelin, bitchez! What could possibly go wrong?
er... aluminized lacquer exterior coating? - Ned
Powdercoated thermite?
A Karmic justice ZAP to a swastika-sportin' gas bag?
mmmmm..... hot crossed buns.....
Z