Third Hindenburg Omen Confirmation

Tyler Durden's picture

The market is now down 3.4% from the August 12 open, when the first Hindenburg Omen was sighted, on route to validating the prediction of a 5% drop. However, in the process it continues getting worse and worse - today we just got a third H.O. confirmation, and a 4th standalone HO event, as the market seems to be getting ever more schizophrenic, with increasing new highs and new lows, while the undercurrent is one of ever increasing implied correlation as noted earlier, as ever more asset managers simply rely on levered beta "strategies" to redeem their year. Unlike 2009, however, this time the trick won't fly, as it appears the market's downside potential is finally starting to be appreciated.

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Spalding_Smailes's picture

So for every Hindenburg Omen do we get to knock off 5% ...?

Sudden Debt's picture

Tyler, this is actually the fourth confirmation.

The third confirmation was the USD 10 week moving average breaking the resistance at 83.22 on last friday. EW relationships suggest that this rally should go to 103.54, before extensions.  If it follows its normal cycle pattern, we may see its top near election day.

Clayton Bigsby's picture

Ladies & gentlemen, Atlas has left, I repeat, left the building...

George the baby crusher's picture

I think I've written this before, but here goes.  I'm John Galt and so is my wife.

Thomas's picture

I am your wife. Get off the computer and come to dinner.'s picture

you should say, come to bed.

Howard_Beale's picture

You are all ideologic folks with no sense of reality. Go ahead. Live in an Ayn Rand book--it's utopia thinking and totally unrelated to the human condition. I got over her when I was 17. I realized her idealization of how people act was totally fiction. In other words, she was/is full of shit.

When you are ready to join the real world it will be nice. You can all hang on to your idiotic idealogy all you want. Ayn Rand was an asshole and if there is anyone to prove it on this earth today it is Alan Greenspan. People generally do not take responsible for their actions, do not clean of their messes in big business (taxpayers do) and above all the almighty dollar as your shrine?

What a crock. Try loving your children and living a decent life.

Hephasteus's picture

There's a saying in group dynamics. If you change just one ingrediant you change the whole thing. For instance pies. You can make pies several differnt ways but if you stick to a recipe generally you can completely change the flavor of the pie just by using a different fruit. Apple versus cherry etc.

The universe is stuck on a centralized power king model. It doesn't work. You can read mythology about the king model in aquarian archetype construction known as the cup knight mythology. Read up on it. It's shows the glaring never ending inadequacies of the entire system. You meet the king repair the shield but it's never really quite repaired. Or the king has a lance wound in his side and you have to heal it. By knowing exactly what he needs to drink. Any version of the story will show you that it's a nihilistic endeavor. There will never be any wholeness or completeness in the king model. It simply builds up dominant forces and they spend thier time trying to fuck over anything that threatens thier dominance.

A limited life philosophy will only work with other limited life philosophy participants. Under the present system any bright idea that doesn't match the goals hidden or open of the king will be stomped out of existance. As it is the unlimited power participants will simply shrink and impose on them out of existance.

So what has to happen is everyone who doesn't share a group reality will necessarily get kicked the fuck out of it. That doesn't mean they can't persue thier own group reality it just means that they can't do it with everyone. The powers that be have no compunction about sharing their reality in a lying deceiptful way. I just had a dream the other night where my brother was crippled from an accident and they were doing a very good job of simulating him. He was drinking soda pop. Which he doesn't do but I noticed blood on his arm where the tops had been rubbing the skin off. He had partial hand on one arm and nub at the forearm on the other one and his arms where all rubbery. I asked him if he wanted a kind of pop and he kept putting energy out that he wanted to do it himself. He was being very stoic and brave about the whole thing.

The pop bubbled up and spilled all over while I was trying to pour him some and they tried their best to convey to me that I'm making a mess of things and fucking up after going through a titanic effort of modeling my brother in a very good acting job and trying their best to get me in a sympathetic framework. Because I'm not sympathetic at all. I'm much much nastier than those psycopaths and socipaths. Thing is I'm not dishonest or taking on their passive aggressive tendencies.

So before you confuse being ideological and unrealistic with simply picking the wrong reality to be deeply convictive of. Just remember. You're going to be expected to have enough experience and sense to know where you belong.

I'm not idealizing the people that will leave. I'm trusting them and it comes from experience with them. Some fuckface who won't even use his real identity or try to communicate anything meaningful other than what manipulation they deem is necessary right now. Is going to get fucked off. I'm not going to be your good employee. You're good servant. You're loyal soldier. I'm going to be never ending pain and suffering to every violent or harmfully manipulative gang.

And I'm not going to take some peoples or some "things" communications at face value. I'm going to drill into their fucking skull and find what I need to find. I'm not going to go along to get along. Or put on a fake smile or a happy face. We're going to deal and confront the problems that exist or we're just going to stop talking about them.

So pick a good pie howard. One low in shit, cause you're going to have eat it.'s picture

your heavy, must be a F U L L   M O O N .

malusDiaz's picture

Ask not what was done wrong in Rome, but what the Visigoths Did Right!

flacon's picture

If I rearrange the letters of DIOCLETIAN I arrive with BEN BERNANKE. Amazing! After two thousand years he has been re-born as the Federal Reserve Chairman! 

DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Historical Humor, hahaha!


Henry Chinaski's picture
"and as an afterthought
this must to be told
some people have taken pure bullshit
and turned it into gold"

"leave the driving" by neil young


RockyRacoon's picture

Speaking of gold...  Interesting view on gold and the OMEN!

Also, gold would be one way to play a return of the Hindenburg.

Over the weekend, Markman looked at the three-month return of gold futures after a second Hindenburg Omen. The average gain for gold in three months was 11.2%, and the maximum was 23.8%.

Great chart going back to 1978 in relation to the HO.

Playing a Return of the Hindenburg Omen's picture

looks like one of those prairie dogs that try and kill me on the bike path. they run right out in front of you. dumb doo doo's. assisted living for the prairie dogs, no kill rule. they need to stop breeding.

Max Hunter's picture

Thanks Numbernone... wow.. that was hilarious.

anony's picture

Clicked on it and thought my cell phone was ringing.

In a supermarket a couple years ago, my phone rang and the woman in line in front of me turned in horror to look at me, and ran out of the store screaming, "That's a sacrilege! You will pay for it!!" 

william the bastard's picture

Hindenburg omens come in clusters. They promise sister of death face sucking killer squid results. (e.g. seen any zepplins lately?)

RockyRacoon's picture

Hindenburg omens come in clusters.

Kinda like headaches -- for which there is no cure.

plocequ1's picture

Today the GAB network was ripping apart Bob Pissonme. Bob was pushing Toll Brothers. Desperation at it's finest.

tunaman4u2's picture

The death cross didn't kill us... just saying! 

Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

No, but the Cardinal Cross just may have. 

Oh and by kill I assume you do not mean physically.

Poem for the day, if it is such:

In the ability to correctly manifest change, if it be with all of one's heart or even only an inkling, the effort proves the closest eptitude of thruth there is.

Cathartes Aura's picture

the cardinal cross is baked in, the ingredients are the end product, unfolding daily, in harmony with All that Is.


e_goldstein's picture

So, at what point does it go from "Hindenburg Omen," to "Hindenburg Confirmation?"

centerline's picture

Techincally, we went from having a Omen to a confirmed Omen already.  A second sighting within the given timeframe is the confirmation.  Of course it does not guarantee a market crash or even correction.  Just means the odds are higher.

Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Much higher but not a given. For example, a 77.8 % chance of greater than a 5% decline in 4 months, a 55.6% chance of a greater than 8% decline, a 40.8 % chance of greater than 10% decline and a 30% chance of greater than a 15% decline in 4 months or less.

We're talking odds here that are much higher than they normally are from day to day. And like I said the other day, these are average odds. Considering how bad things are with currency problems, leverage problems, jobs and etc, I would consider these percentages to be low.

But that's just me. 

Vampyroteuthis infernalis's picture

Las Vegas exists by having the odds stacked in their favor. As long as gamblers come, Vegas will live! CD's odds are leaning towards a downturn. My money follows.

nedwardkelly's picture

"For example, a 77.8 % chance of greater than a 5% decline in 4 months"

Is it more accurate to say:

77.8% of the time that we've seen these omens there has been a greater than 5% decline within 5 months?


I'm genuinely asking, I have no expertise with technical analysis.


New_Meat's picture

Yep, like "35% chance of rain."

1/3 of the time it will rain?
we'll get 1/3 of the rain?
1/3 of the area will get rain?

- Ned

nedwardkelly's picture

Right... but that I've always taken like "35% of the time present conditions have resulted in rain"


Or in my part of the country "we spun the wheel and it stopped at 35% chance of rain"

Dr. Sandi's picture

Yep, like "35% chance of rain."

1/3 of the time it will rain?
we'll get 1/3 of the rain?
1/3 of the area will get rain?


Good question. The actual answer is that in any given point in the forecast area, there is a 35% chance of rain at that spot.

Not that the weather gamblers go out of their way to explain that to us when they use it every day.

New_Meat's picture

When I was growing up, we had a weather "forecaster" named Don Kent.  My uncle used to wonder-"Doesn't he have a window to look out?"

Don used to use the term "radiational cooling" in the winter, when it was cold and dry, indicating it was going below 0 DegF.  I wonder what that meant?

- Ned

Dr. Sandi's picture

Don used to use the term "radiational cooling" in the winter, when it was cold and dry, indicating it was going below 0 DegF.  I wonder what that meant?

Okay, I'll take the bait. I used to make a lousy living reading weather forecasts aloud, a lot. So I tried to understand what the hell I was talking about.

Radiational cooling just means loss of heat to space. This is most noticed at night when it's already damned cold. Without a nice blanket of clouds to radiate the heat back down to earth, it gets even colder overnight.

Hence, clear and cold overnight.

Now, here's Don with the sports....

New_Meat's picture

lol, I started to pick a started to stimulate a lively conversation.  But the OT Nazi's would have been right if it had been in that forum.  Tried to take it ouside, but got the deflecting response.  Don't know if the BC guy and I will cross paths.

Please do join the festivities.

(and still don't know why the term has disappeared)

- Ned

Cognitive Dissonance's picture

"For example, a 77.8 % chance of greater than a 5% decline in 4 months"


Is it more accurate to say:


77.8% of the time that we've seen these omens there has been a greater than 5% decline within 4 months? (corrected to 4 months from 5)


I'm genuinely asking, I have no expertise with technical analysis.

This isn't technical analysis, technically it's statistical analysis. But I get your point and yes, the way you phrased it would make it more understandable and still be correct.

Thank you for translating. :>)

nedwardkelly's picture

This isn't technical analysis, technically it's statistical analysis.


Well I learnt something today :)

agrotera's picture

Here is my expert analysis ( i am skilled at restating the obvious) --the market will either go up or it will go down, or it will stay the same--and you can mark my words on this....( i am also skilled at trying to be funny with my not funny stuff)