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Third Hindenburg Omen Confirmation

Tyler Durden's picture




 

The market is now down 3.4% from the August 12 open, when the first Hindenburg Omen was sighted, on route to validating the prediction of a 5% drop. However, in the process it continues getting worse and worse - today we just got a third H.O. confirmation, and a 4th standalone HO event, as the market seems to be getting ever more schizophrenic, with increasing new highs and new lows, while the undercurrent is one of ever increasing implied correlation as noted earlier, as ever more asset managers simply rely on levered beta "strategies" to redeem their year. Unlike 2009, however, this time the trick won't fly, as it appears the market's downside potential is finally starting to be appreciated.

 

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Tue, 08/24/2010 - 16:19 | 541198 Spalding_Smailes
Spalding_Smailes's picture

So for every Hindenburg Omen do we get to knock off 5% ...?

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 16:55 | 541326 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

Tyler, this is actually the fourth confirmation.

The third confirmation was the USD 10 week moving average breaking the resistance at 83.22 on last friday. EW relationships suggest that this rally should go to 103.54, before extensions.  If it follows its normal cycle pattern, we may see its top near election day.

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 16:21 | 541203 Dagny Taggart
Dagny Taggart's picture

Atlas shrugging?

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 16:32 | 541246 Clayton Bigsby
Clayton Bigsby's picture

Ladies & gentlemen, Atlas has left, I repeat, left the building...

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 16:35 | 541263 traderjoe
traderjoe's picture

Who is John Galt?

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 16:47 | 541302 Gully Foyle
Gully Foyle's picture

traderjoe

Atlas Shrugged (2011) Paul Johansson ... John Galt
Tue, 08/24/2010 - 16:48 | 541307 George the baby...
George the baby crusher's picture

I think I've written this before, but here goes.  I'm John Galt and so is my wife.

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 17:32 | 541443 Thomas
Thomas's picture

I am your wife. Get off the computer and come to dinner.

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 20:07 | 541837 kathy.chamberli...
kathy.chamberlin@gmail.com's picture

you should say, come to bed.

Wed, 08/25/2010 - 02:31 | 542394 Howard_Beale
Howard_Beale's picture

You are all ideologic folks with no sense of reality. Go ahead. Live in an Ayn Rand book--it's utopia thinking and totally unrelated to the human condition. I got over her when I was 17. I realized her idealization of how people act was totally fiction. In other words, she was/is full of shit.

When you are ready to join the real world it will be nice. You can all hang on to your idiotic idealogy all you want. Ayn Rand was an asshole and if there is anyone to prove it on this earth today it is Alan Greenspan. People generally do not take responsible for their actions, do not clean of their messes in big business (taxpayers do) and above all the almighty dollar as your shrine?

What a crock. Try loving your children and living a decent life.

Wed, 08/25/2010 - 03:51 | 542418 Hephasteus
Hephasteus's picture

There's a saying in group dynamics. If you change just one ingrediant you change the whole thing. For instance pies. You can make pies several differnt ways but if you stick to a recipe generally you can completely change the flavor of the pie just by using a different fruit. Apple versus cherry etc.

The universe is stuck on a centralized power king model. It doesn't work. You can read mythology about the king model in aquarian archetype construction known as the cup knight mythology. Read up on it. It's shows the glaring never ending inadequacies of the entire system. You meet the king repair the shield but it's never really quite repaired. Or the king has a lance wound in his side and you have to heal it. By knowing exactly what he needs to drink. Any version of the story will show you that it's a nihilistic endeavor. There will never be any wholeness or completeness in the king model. It simply builds up dominant forces and they spend thier time trying to fuck over anything that threatens thier dominance.

A limited life philosophy will only work with other limited life philosophy participants. Under the present system any bright idea that doesn't match the goals hidden or open of the king will be stomped out of existance. As it is the unlimited power participants will simply shrink and impose on them out of existance.

So what has to happen is everyone who doesn't share a group reality will necessarily get kicked the fuck out of it. That doesn't mean they can't persue thier own group reality it just means that they can't do it with everyone. The powers that be have no compunction about sharing their reality in a lying deceiptful way. I just had a dream the other night where my brother was crippled from an accident and they were doing a very good job of simulating him. He was drinking soda pop. Which he doesn't do but I noticed blood on his arm where the tops had been rubbing the skin off. He had partial hand on one arm and nub at the forearm on the other one and his arms where all rubbery. I asked him if he wanted a kind of pop and he kept putting energy out that he wanted to do it himself. He was being very stoic and brave about the whole thing.

The pop bubbled up and spilled all over while I was trying to pour him some and they tried their best to convey to me that I'm making a mess of things and fucking up after going through a titanic effort of modeling my brother in a very good acting job and trying their best to get me in a sympathetic framework. Because I'm not sympathetic at all. I'm much much nastier than those psycopaths and socipaths. Thing is I'm not dishonest or taking on their passive aggressive tendencies.

So before you confuse being ideological and unrealistic with simply picking the wrong reality to be deeply convictive of. Just remember. You're going to be expected to have enough experience and sense to know where you belong.

I'm not idealizing the people that will leave. I'm trusting them and it comes from experience with them. Some fuckface who won't even use his real identity or try to communicate anything meaningful other than what manipulation they deem is necessary right now. Is going to get fucked off. I'm not going to be your good employee. You're good servant. You're loyal soldier. I'm going to be never ending pain and suffering to every violent or harmfully manipulative gang.

And I'm not going to take some peoples or some "things" communications at face value. I'm going to drill into their fucking skull and find what I need to find. I'm not going to go along to get along. Or put on a fake smile or a happy face. We're going to deal and confront the problems that exist or we're just going to stop talking about them.

So pick a good pie howard. One low in shit, cause you're going to have eat it.

Wed, 08/25/2010 - 08:10 | 542522 kathy.chamberli...
kathy.chamberlin@gmail.com's picture

your heavy, must be a F U L L   M O O N .

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 16:23 | 541209 malusDiaz
malusDiaz's picture

Ask not what was done wrong in Rome, but what the Visigoths Did Right!

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 17:48 | 541487 flacon
flacon's picture

If I rearrange the letters of DIOCLETIAN I arrive with BEN BERNANKE. Amazing! After two thousand years he has been re-born as the Federal Reserve Chairman! 

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 18:05 | 541534 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Historical Humor, hahaha!

+++

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 16:23 | 541212 Henry Chinaski
Henry Chinaski's picture
"and as an afterthought
this must to be told
some people have taken pure bullshit
and turned it into gold"

"leave the driving" by neil young

 

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 18:18 | 541563 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

Speaking of gold...  Interesting view on gold and the OMEN!

Also, gold would be one way to play a return of the Hindenburg.

Over the weekend, Markman looked at the three-month return of gold futures after a second Hindenburg Omen. The average gain for gold in three months was 11.2%, and the maximum was 23.8%.

Great chart going back to 1978 in relation to the HO.

Playing a Return of the Hindenburg Omen

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 18:36 | 541601 boiow
boiow's picture

nice post. thanks

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 16:24 | 541217 Turd Ferguson
Tue, 08/24/2010 - 16:28 | 541230 NumberNone
NumberNone's picture

Lol.  This one still kills me...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y8Kyi0WNg40

 

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 16:32 | 541248 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Tue, 08/24/2010 - 19:19 | 541708 CrockettAlmanac.com
Tue, 08/24/2010 - 20:10 | 541843 kathy.chamberli...
kathy.chamberlin@gmail.com's picture

looks like one of those prairie dogs that try and kill me on the bike path. they run right out in front of you. dumb doo doo's. assisted living for the prairie dogs, no kill rule. they need to stop breeding.

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 20:57 | 541914 Max Hunter
Max Hunter's picture

Thanks Numbernone... wow.. that was hilarious.

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 16:41 | 541284 anony
anony's picture

Clicked on it and thought my cell phone was ringing.

In a supermarket a couple years ago, my phone rang and the woman in line in front of me turned in horror to look at me, and ran out of the store screaming, "That's a sacrilege! You will pay for it!!" 

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 16:24 | 541219 william the bastard
william the bastard's picture

Hindenburg omens come in clusters. They promise sister of death face sucking killer squid results. (e.g. seen any zepplins lately?)

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 16:57 | 541339 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

Hindenburg omens come in clusters.

Kinda like headaches -- for which there is no cure.

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 16:26 | 541221 plocequ1
plocequ1's picture

Today the GAB network was ripping apart Bob Pissonme. Bob was pushing Toll Brothers. Desperation at it's finest.

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 16:28 | 541229 tunaman4u2
tunaman4u2's picture

The death cross didn't kill us... just saying! 

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 16:35 | 541261 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

No, but the Cardinal Cross just may have. 

Oh and by kill I assume you do not mean physically.

Poem for the day, if it is such:

In the ability to correctly manifest change, if it be with all of one's heart or even only an inkling, the effort proves the closest eptitude of thruth there is.

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 16:50 | 541316 AccreditedEYE
AccreditedEYE's picture

*snap*snap*snap*snap* 

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 17:48 | 541488 Cathartes Aura
Cathartes Aura's picture

the cardinal cross is baked in, the ingredients are the end product, unfolding daily, in harmony with All that Is.

 

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 18:39 | 541614 boiow
boiow's picture

indeed

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 16:29 | 541235 e_goldstein
e_goldstein's picture

So, at what point does it go from "Hindenburg Omen," to "Hindenburg Confirmation?"

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 16:37 | 541268 centerline
centerline's picture

Techincally, we went from having a Omen to a confirmed Omen already.  A second sighting within the given timeframe is the confirmation.  Of course it does not guarantee a market crash or even correction.  Just means the odds are higher.

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 16:39 | 541275 e_goldstein
e_goldstein's picture

Thank you.

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 17:05 | 541358 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Much higher but not a given. For example, a 77.8 % chance of greater than a 5% decline in 4 months, a 55.6% chance of a greater than 8% decline, a 40.8 % chance of greater than 10% decline and a 30% chance of greater than a 15% decline in 4 months or less.

We're talking odds here that are much higher than they normally are from day to day. And like I said the other day, these are average odds. Considering how bad things are with currency problems, leverage problems, jobs and etc, I would consider these percentages to be low.

But that's just me. 

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 17:10 | 541377 confimationbias
confimationbias's picture

Agreed. Context is everything.

 

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 17:30 | 541429 Vampyroteuthis ...
Vampyroteuthis infernalis's picture

Las Vegas exists by having the odds stacked in their favor. As long as gamblers come, Vegas will live! CD's odds are leaning towards a downturn. My money follows.

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 17:44 | 541475 nedwardkelly
nedwardkelly's picture

"For example, a 77.8 % chance of greater than a 5% decline in 4 months"

Is it more accurate to say:

77.8% of the time that we've seen these omens there has been a greater than 5% decline within 5 months?

 

I'm genuinely asking, I have no expertise with technical analysis.

 

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 17:54 | 541504 New_Meat
New_Meat's picture

Yep, like "35% chance of rain."

1/3 of the time it will rain?
we'll get 1/3 of the rain?
1/3 of the area will get rain?

- Ned

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 17:56 | 541512 nedwardkelly
nedwardkelly's picture

Right... but that I've always taken like "35% of the time present conditions have resulted in rain"

 

Or in my part of the country "we spun the wheel and it stopped at 35% chance of rain"

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 18:53 | 541649 Dr. Sandi
Dr. Sandi's picture

Yep, like "35% chance of rain."

1/3 of the time it will rain?
we'll get 1/3 of the rain?
1/3 of the area will get rain?

 

Good question. The actual answer is that in any given point in the forecast area, there is a 35% chance of rain at that spot.

Not that the weather gamblers go out of their way to explain that to us when they use it every day.

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 20:42 | 541885 New_Meat
New_Meat's picture

When I was growing up, we had a weather "forecaster" named Don Kent.  My uncle used to wonder-"Doesn't he have a window to look out?"

Don used to use the term "radiational cooling" in the winter, when it was cold and dry, indicating it was going below 0 DegF.  I wonder what that meant?

- Ned

Wed, 08/25/2010 - 07:14 | 542487 Dr. Sandi
Dr. Sandi's picture

Don used to use the term "radiational cooling" in the winter, when it was cold and dry, indicating it was going below 0 DegF.  I wonder what that meant?

Okay, I'll take the bait. I used to make a lousy living reading weather forecasts aloud, a lot. So I tried to understand what the hell I was talking about.

Radiational cooling just means loss of heat to space. This is most noticed at night when it's already damned cold. Without a nice blanket of clouds to radiate the heat back down to earth, it gets even colder overnight.

Hence, clear and cold overnight.

Now, here's Don with the sports....

Wed, 08/25/2010 - 07:36 | 542499 New_Meat
New_Meat's picture

lol, I started to pick a ...er... started to stimulate a lively conversation.  But the OT Nazi's would have been right if it had been in that forum.  Tried to take it ouside, but got the deflecting response.  Don't know if the BC guy and I will cross paths.

Please do join the festivities.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Don_Kent_%28meteorologist%29

(and still don't know why the term has disappeared)

- Ned

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 21:01 | 541924 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

"For example, a 77.8 % chance of greater than a 5% decline in 4 months"

 

Is it more accurate to say:

 

77.8% of the time that we've seen these omens there has been a greater than 5% decline within 4 months? (corrected to 4 months from 5)

 

I'm genuinely asking, I have no expertise with technical analysis.

This isn't technical analysis, technically it's statistical analysis. But I get your point and yes, the way you phrased it would make it more understandable and still be correct.

Thank you for translating. :>)

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 22:07 | 542082 nedwardkelly
nedwardkelly's picture

This isn't technical analysis, technically it's statistical analysis.

 

Well I learnt something today :)

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 21:21 | 541984 agrotera
agrotera's picture

Here is my expert analysis ( i am skilled at restating the obvious) --the market will either go up or it will go down, or it will stay the same--and you can mark my words on this....( i am also skilled at trying to be funny with my not funny stuff)

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 22:33 | 542128 kathy.chamberli...
kathy.chamberlin@gmail.com's picture

N I C E

thank you,

my exact sentiments.

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 16:46 | 541300 Gully Foyle
Gully Foyle's picture

e_goldstein

When we see Threat Level Mauve, a Willis level event. A Nakatomi iteration rapidly evolving into Ebola closure.

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 19:24 | 541728 CrockettAlmanac.com
CrockettAlmanac.com's picture

What you talkin' 'bout, Willis?

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 16:30 | 541238 imokruok
imokruok's picture

Maybe the home builders will finally kick it this time around. Was waiting for it to happen in 08/09 and it never did...

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 17:23 | 541410 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

That's because they not only carried losses forward, they were also refunded some of the taxes they paid during the boom, giving them "earnings."

Thanks TARP!

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 16:33 | 541249 centerline
centerline's picture

When primary 3 is done, they will rename the "Hindenburg Omen" the "Hiroshima Omen"

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 19:13 | 541694 MrSteve
MrSteve's picture

the omen precedes the "disaster", ie crash and burn

http://www.airships.net/hindenburg/disaster

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 16:33 | 541250 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

The last time I got as excited as the market seems to be, my son was conceived...........repeatedly.

What do you think the market's cooking up for us? Another bun in the oven or satans revenge?

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 16:43 | 541291 Gully Foyle
Gully Foyle's picture

Cognitive Dissonance

Wow, you haven't gotten it up in ten years. Dude they have meds for that, very many meds.

 

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 21:02 | 541936 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

25 years, but who's counting other than you?

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 21:21 | 541988 kathy.chamberli...
kathy.chamberlin@gmail.com's picture

ME

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 16:33 | 541251 Leo Kolivakis
Leo Kolivakis's picture

Battered and bruised, will investors keep plowing into bonds to avoid the wolf market or are wolves setting themselves up for the next big payday? Me thinks it's the latter, but I empathize with this poor fella:

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 16:38 | 541272 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

When the bond bubble bursts, and doelarrs are better served as party napkins, monie will move to gold, because as the old and senile Soros said, "Eet iz dee ultimate baubble."  By ultimate, we mean final.

And by the way, if that is a picture of you, how did you keep your shoes so polished?

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 17:43 | 541470 tmosley
tmosley's picture

It's a bubble filled with concrete.

Quite solid if you let it set a while.

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 18:49 | 541642 The Alarmist
The Alarmist's picture

No, seriously, he really meant Bauble, as in "The entire US economy is now nothing more than another jewel in my pointly crown."

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 19:27 | 541738 CrockettAlmanac.com
CrockettAlmanac.com's picture

"A mere bag of shells." -- Ralph Kramden

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 16:41 | 541283 traderjoe
traderjoe's picture

Do you have a catalyst in mind? Announcement of QE2?

I have a few downside catalysts I can think of, and most start with a d*fault. 

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 17:35 | 541449 Vampyroteuthis ...
Vampyroteuthis infernalis's picture

Trader, the catalyst will be simple. After the stock market steals average Joe's money, the smart money will buy in and ramp stocks. Remember, where is the smart money invested during the crash? Bonds. Yes, the herd will leave bonds and pile into stocks. Interest rates will spike and the bond bubble will pop!

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 16:47 | 541303 firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

I hope you bought the dip Leo, we only have New Home Sales tomorrow, Jobless Thrusdays, and GDP Friday.  I'm sure your buys will "SOLARZ" those days.

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 17:09 | 541374 MountainHawk
MountainHawk's picture

I picked up really small long position on apple, couldn't help myself. It's all a roll of the dice.

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 17:31 | 541439 firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

My AAPL Puts are rocking pretty hard.

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 16:55 | 541330 AccreditedEYE
AccreditedEYE's picture

Leo! I tried to warn you that the beta part was over! I guess you didn't hedge! In more positive news, AAPL is looking rancid. :)

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 17:25 | 541370 Leo Kolivakis
Leo Kolivakis's picture

And what about that jobs report next Friday? It's about time we create some jobs!

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 17:51 | 541500 OldTrooper
OldTrooper's picture

Why?  Does someone have work that needs doing?

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 17:53 | 541503 ColonelCooper
ColonelCooper's picture

I don't understand the meaning of your post.  Are you cheerleading, or expecting bad news and pissed?

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 20:47 | 541892 Leo Kolivakis
Leo Kolivakis's picture

Your avatar is repulsive...pls change it!

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 21:22 | 541989 kathy.chamberli...
kathy.chamberlin@gmail.com's picture

i said, n o PICKLES†

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 16:59 | 541343 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

What?  No videos of Greeks frolicking on the beach?

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 17:39 | 541425 Leo Kolivakis
Leo Kolivakis's picture

I doubt they're Greek but this might help soothe that Hindenburg hangover:

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 17:41 | 541465 Spalding_Smailes
Spalding_Smailes's picture

Wow thanks Leo, the whore on the left with the tramp stamp real does have great legs & look at her ass. I hope Robo is going to give us some video now also.... :P

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 17:41 | 541467 PhattyBuoy
PhattyBuoy's picture

Damn, just got a hell of a crick in my neck !!

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 18:54 | 541542 jkruffin
jkruffin's picture

Oh yea, Boats and Ho's  LOL

Is this where our IMF bailout funds went? LOL

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 16:34 | 541255 Clayton Bigsby
Clayton Bigsby's picture

um, seriously, do we ever need to build another goddamn house in this country again?  we can't even move the ones we got

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 17:00 | 541345 mephisto
mephisto's picture

Field of Dreams II:

If you don't build it, he will come.

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 17:51 | 541495 -Michelle-
-Michelle-'s picture

In a helicopter!

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 17:54 | 541505 ColonelCooper
ColonelCooper's picture

How is new Mommy? Hope everything went well.

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 18:15 | 541558 -Michelle-
-Michelle-'s picture

Still waiting.  I thought last night was going to be it. :(

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 18:27 | 541581 ColonelCooper
ColonelCooper's picture

I feel for you.  My wife started having contractions with our second on a Sunday afternoon.  Sunday night we went in, getting closer together, 45 miles from hospital.  Wednesday morning, new baby. 

I've never been so tired.  /sarcasm

 

Good luck to you.  You can call the new guy Coop.

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 18:36 | 541606 -Michelle-
-Michelle-'s picture

This will actually be our first girl, but I'll keep it in mind. :)  Thanks for the luck!

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 18:41 | 541619 saulysw
saulysw's picture

What are you going to call it?

Boy = Ben? Timmay? Tyler? oh,oh,oh, I know. Jonny Jizzpants. Perfect!

Girl = ?? Marla? MScreant? Velo? Not so sure about this one....

 

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 18:42 | 541623 saulysw
saulysw's picture

Oh, now I read it's gonna be a girl. Suggestions people??

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 19:33 | 541747 CrockettAlmanac.com
CrockettAlmanac.com's picture

Dagny or Scout.

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 21:25 | 541998 kathy.chamberli...
kathy.chamberlin@gmail.com's picture

M A R L A †

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 21:26 | 542000 kathy.chamberli...
kathy.chamberlin@gmail.com's picture

keep it in the bun as long as you can, more healthy.

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 19:12 | 541692 ElCapitanNemo
ElCapitanNemo's picture

I love u guys, so funny.  Made my day, ah I love watching this pile of shit collapse.

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 19:58 | 541824 Mad Mad Woman
Mad Mad Woman's picture

And don't forget all the houses that the banks own & haven't listed yet, a shadow over-supply. If you add in all those it's worse yet.

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 20:17 | 541853 kathy.chamberli...
kathy.chamberlin@gmail.com's picture

i was stomping my feet this wHOLE past decade, that is all that is

made in america. really.

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 16:35 | 541262 Gloomy
Gloomy's picture

My God, this is well said:

 

"Robert Prechter once again kicked open the door to the media and the junior deflationists followed right along in his wake. All good for our plan, as we have been awaiting the deflation 'event', 'impulse' or 'scare' all along. This would be the event that triggers new inflationary policy, the likes of which the mainstream media propaganda robots are now increasingly demanding. The Fed just happens to have the ammo now - unlike in the spring when yields were threatening to break out - to continue the great inflation.

But there is an issue that potentially muddies the analysis. The question 'to what extent is Bernanke supporting the bond?' is an important one. Because if he is THE buyer of last resort, this is nothing more than an incestuously manufactured deflation mirage with the implication that our big picture view (long term) of breakout inflation expectations could arrive sooner rather than later; perhaps even in the intermediate as opposed to long term.

Think about the implications of the United States buying its own debt obligations. Think about Enron and the many billionaires who parachuted out of the cockpits of the varied financial Ponzi schemes in the run up to 2008's crash. Think about conventional financial services providers putting people in Treasury Bonds right now. These debt obligations are intrinsically worthless because they can never be repaid; at least not without setting fire to the currency, in which case T Bond 'investors' will be eaten alive by rising yields.

Now think about the 'transitional' asset class, the precious metals and in particular, gold. As far as stocks go, think about the one sector that stands to gain from an environment of a decelerating economy that is in need of more inflationary policy. As the paper wizard attempts to blow smoke and use mirrors to keep traditional asset markets afloat, the gold miners gain leverage and revaluation as gold's 'real' price - as measured in many commodities and asset markets - increases in the contraction and/or deflationary environment.

The gold stocks should outperform as we transition from the short and/or intermediate term pretense of deflation to our inflationary future in the longer term. At some point, I expect the digital and paper money created basically out of nowhere during the 2008 panic and its ongoing aftermath to result in a new world order, which sees inflated currencies that denominate a relative lack of productivity in areas that are on the decline, and sees areas of resource and productivity attracting capital."

 

http://www.safehaven.com/article/17941/prechter-masks-for-halloween-nftrh-short-term-view

Wed, 08/25/2010 - 00:06 | 542289 rocker
rocker's picture

Sooooooooo  Goooooooooood  Thanks.   Junior Deflationist. LOL.

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 16:39 | 541277 winks
winks's picture

3rd Omen is like waving a red flag in front of the bulls. Can almost see the market turn now and rally into month end, especially with Bernanke speaking at Jackson Hole this week. QE2 coming soon?

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 19:58 | 541821 Treeplanter
Treeplanter's picture

We need about three weeks of a slow market rise with the PMs making new highs.   and Kudlow smiling every day about the one dip recovery.  This would make it cheaper to buy some ETF leveraged shorts on Treasuries,  financials and the market indexes.   If only Johnny Bravo was here. 

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 20:47 | 541893 New_Meat
New_Meat's picture

or only like -1x, if you are in it for longer than, oh, a very short time. - Ned

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 16:41 | 541281 Gully Foyle
Gully Foyle's picture

Robert Thorn: If there were anything wrong, you'd tell me, wouldn't you?
Kathy Thorn: Wrong? What could be wrong with our child, Robert? We're the beautiful people, aren't we?

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 16:42 | 541287 Gloomy
Gloomy's picture

Interesting comment from wikipedia (for what its worth):

 

"Because of the specific and seemingly random nature of the Hindenburg Omen criteria, the phenomenon may be simply a case of overfitting. That is, by backtesting through a large data set with many different variables, correlations can be found that do not really have predictive significance. The Omen is at best an imperfect technical indicator that is a work in progress"

 

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 16:56 | 541331 Turd Ferguson
Turd Ferguson's picture

I'd like to try to overfit myself into Mandy.

Mmmmmandy....

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 17:02 | 541349 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

So, you like the bleached-blonde slutty type?  Interesting.

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 20:24 | 541866 kathy.chamberli...
kathy.chamberlin@gmail.com's picture

bleached-blonde

hi-lights, R O C K Y

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 19:37 | 541769 CrockettAlmanac.com
CrockettAlmanac.com's picture

Mandy:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GK8-gZVkYsk

I'm sorry. I'm so sorry...

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 20:04 | 541831 ElvisDog
ElvisDog's picture

Love Barry's hair.

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 20:32 | 541873 kathy.chamberli...
kathy.chamberlin@gmail.com's picture

love his blue and of course his vest. love men in vests. barry's not my type, but M K is.

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 17:46 | 541481 tmosley
tmosley's picture

The main factor measured by the HO is investor confusion.  When people don't know where to go, they will eventually leave the market altogether.

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 16:43 | 541290 contrabandista13
contrabandista13's picture

Is there anything positive anywhere....? Even the bears are depressed.... I mean Holy Shit.....! Everything just really sucks the big one..... I had the right premise, I made all the right moves.... I can't be that cynical.... Ciao, Econolcious

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 17:30 | 541434 nonclaim
nonclaim's picture

Even the bears are depressed

Too bad that line won't make the front page of any serious newspaper...

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 18:38 | 541611 Helix6
Helix6's picture

And then there's the old adage that when the most optimistic person in the world has turned pessimistic, the market has reached the bottom.

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 20:49 | 541895 New_Meat
New_Meat's picture

Helix, your mission is to WATCH LEO, when he switches, let us all know.  You CAN do it.  Thanks,

- Ned

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 16:53 | 541322 tecno242
tecno242's picture

No more Hindy's for awhile.

10 week MA is now falling.

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 16:57 | 541337 firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

Afterhours will be exciting regarding Ireland now

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 17:00 | 541344 DosZap
DosZap's picture

Do you think it's time to buy(more) GOLD?...............as in Today.

 SPARTANS TONIGHT WE DINE IN HELL!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 17:00 | 541346 max2205
max2205's picture

Equities market is forgetting Ben just wants everyone to buy a house, any house with a 2.5% mortgage. Funny a low payment with the possibility of depreciating more than you pay in 30 years on P and I. Like GM zero financing and the car drops 60% in 5 years. Whaaat!!!

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 17:01 | 541347 Fix It Again Timmy
Fix It Again Timmy's picture

The fascist, oligarchal con job has relegated reality to a remote corner of the universe.  It will return with a vengeance.

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 17:05 | 541356 papaswamp
papaswamp's picture

Just to throw some fun in the mix...a tropical wave is getting better organized and anticipated to take a different path than Danielle (which incidentally had her track shifted farther west today....don't go to Bermuda). 

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo/two_atl.gif

http://www.skeetobiteweather.com/archive/model/AL962010mlts.gif?533043581

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 18:40 | 541617 New_Meat
New_Meat's picture

dang, butterfly wings - Ned

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 17:07 | 541366 Oswald Spengler
Oswald Spengler's picture

My housekeeper told me the Sun is coming closer to the Earth and this signals the end of time as foretold in Revelations. Look for 666 in the S&P. 

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 19:41 | 541778 CrockettAlmanac.com
CrockettAlmanac.com's picture

Then what's the point of housekeeping?

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 20:02 | 541828 Treeplanter
Treeplanter's picture

Your housekeeper and the Bible are right, but it's several million years away.  Party on.

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 23:16 | 542210 IE
IE's picture

"Eliptical Orbituary"?   lol

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 17:07 | 541367 rosiescenario
rosiescenario's picture

Looks like the PPT did its job today in staunching the developing crash...they just didn't have the balls to put it into a green close...but there is always tomorrow.

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 17:11 | 541382 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

Those jerks did manage to miss ALL MY STOCK THAT WENT DOWN LIKE A IRANIAN SCUD!

I bet those morons where watching porn again...

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 17:14 | 541389 TooBearish
TooBearish's picture

Anyone know what happen to the EURO on the close?

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 17:15 | 541392 Bluntly Put
Bluntly Put's picture

You are all forgetting the most serious omen of all, the dreaded Time Wave Zero omen.

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YpFB1iVPAt0

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 20:05 | 541832 Treeplanter
Treeplanter's picture

I'm sure you're not authorized to mention that.  Someone will be getting in touch with you.  Don't leave town.

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 17:18 | 541394 Remington IV
Remington IV's picture

where's my Tin Foil hat ???????????

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 20:06 | 541836 Treeplanter
Treeplanter's picture

Look in the car.  That's where I usually leave mine.

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 17:21 | 541401 Leo Kolivakis
Leo Kolivakis's picture

A grim outlook sent shares of medical device maker Medtronic Inc. tumbling more than 10% Tuesday, helping drag down stocks throughout the health-care sector in a broadly bearish session for U.S. equities. I wonder if the big hedgies are dumping or buying more at these levels. Check out Q2 holdings. Renaissance Tech held 6,281,542 shares.

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 17:41 | 541468 Hall 9000
Hall 9000's picture

Leo Kolivakis wrote:

"A grim outlook sent shares of medical device maker Medtronic Inc. tumbling more than 10% Tuesday..."

Demographics is in their long-term favor. My 2-cents.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Medtronic

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 18:54 | 541651 The Alarmist
The Alarmist's picture

Unless that Death Panel stuff really has a kernel of truth to it ....

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 19:48 | 541796 CrockettAlmanac.com
CrockettAlmanac.com's picture

Principles for Allocation of Scarce Medical Interventions, The Lancet, Jan.
31, 2009
Govind Persad, Alan Wertheimer, Ezekiel J Emanuel

http://www.scribd.com/doc/18280675/Principles-for-Allocation-of-Scarce-M...

 

Dr. Ezekiel "Zeke" Jonathan Emanuel MD Ph.D (brother of Rahm) is an American
National Institutes of Health bioethicist and fellow at the nonprofit
bioethics research institute The Hastings Center. He has been called a
leading opponent of legalized euthanasia, sometimes called state-assisted
suicide, and is a proponent of a universal health care.

He now holds the position of Director of the Clinical Bioethics Department
at the U.S. National Institutes of Health. Currently, Emanuel is acting as
Special Advisor for Health Policy to Peter Orszag, the Director of the
Office of Management and Budget. The Office of Management and Budget's role
is to assist the White House in the preparation and administration of the
federal budget.

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 20:40 | 541884 Cathartes Aura
Cathartes Aura's picture

soylent green, sheeple.

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 20:51 | 541899 New_Meat
New_Meat's picture

Rahm's brother talk to Rahm?  nah.

- Ned

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 17:21 | 541403 Hall 9000
Hall 9000's picture

 

 DosZap wrote: on Tue, 08/24/2010 - #541344

 

 "SPARTANS TONIGHT WE DINE IN HELL!!!!!!!!!!!!!"

 

Dienekes wrote:

 

"The Spartan Dienekes was told the Persian archers were so numerous that when they fired their volleys, their arrows would blot out the sun.

He responded with, “So much the better, we'll fight in the shade”.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Laconic_phrase

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 17:22 | 541408 FromGaltsGulch
FromGaltsGulch's picture

I'm short , so it hurts me to say this..but regarding the new highs and lows component of this, all the highs were either preferred stocks or exchange traded bonf funds..i'd feel better if there were many more real companies on the list

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 17:40 | 541455 Battleaxe
Battleaxe's picture

Preview of Fed - Jackson Hole meeting:

http://www.gifbin.com/bin/320sw0sw7847.gif

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 17:56 | 541510 OldTrooper
OldTrooper's picture

How fitting!

Wed, 08/25/2010 - 10:04 | 542766 Battleaxe
Battleaxe's picture

"Investors! There's quantitative easing down there!"

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 17:43 | 541469 assumptionblindness
assumptionblindness's picture

Hydrogen-filled zeppelin, bitchez!  What could possibly go wrong?

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 18:42 | 541626 New_Meat
New_Meat's picture

er... aluminized lacquer exterior coating? - Ned

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 19:58 | 541819 Lndmvr
Lndmvr's picture

Powdercoated thermite?

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 19:24 | 541727 MrSteve
MrSteve's picture

A Karmic justice ZAP to a  swastika-sportin' gas bag?

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 18:04 | 541531 Zulkir
Zulkir's picture

mmmmm..... hot crossed buns.....

 

Z

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