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A Thoroughly Exhausted Market
Yet someone (or much more likely something) keeps pushing it higher. A chart of the market's divergence index indicates the most exhausted uptrend witness in years. Divergence Index: ((10 Day Momentum * 40 Day Momentum)/Variance 40 Day Price Changes). Not surprisingly, large positive values indicate an exhausted trend.
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The market's "exhaustion" is nothing compared to the complete collapse in spirits of those of us who actually spend time doing due diligence and parsing all the economic reports. In this case, the truth doesn't set you free, it just frees you of all your assets. I see today's late-afternoon ramp came early. I guess 12 p.m. is the new 3 p.m.
I agree, it seems they want to get those who think about fundamentals to lose out big time as they are the ones that will buy and sell 'stocks' for what they actually are...
not because they are in a basket of stocks or because of some computer program logic which can be programmed to be illogical based on such things.
"Ours is not to reason why ,ours is but to 'do'
or die "
The Charge of the Light Brigade" Alfred, Lord Tennyson
The trend is your friend.
http://www.cbot.com/cbot/pub/page/0,,1560+chart,00.html?symb=YM&month=U&...
x 2, the sad part if you are an institutional investor/manager eventually you are forced to buy into this farce because you could hoard the cash only for so long or stretch your IPS only so far. Just like that hedge in the previous article, you know you are right but you also know that eventually you have to re-balance your positions, etc. And while the avoidance of crap and related assets will pay off, you are punished because you are diligent and play by the rules.
Everybody wanting to buy for the GS projected year end...
For the technicians out there. The head & shoulders top is 956 and some change. If we close today above that, which seems to be the plan, negate the pattern in the same way breaking the 879 neckline to the lowside validate it?
The Citi arb (long preferred, short common) is blowing up today as they race for the exits before the exchange deadline.
Lots of C prfs down 10-20% and the common is up ~7% (run started almost immediately after market open).
the divergence index equation could be the new
captcha question...i had to pull out my calculator
for (minus fifteen) times [] equals -165
Not a problem. There are drugs out there that can handle exhaustion. Invisible market forces will bust this baby to new highs.
Up up and away. Goldman's 1060 is on for next week.
Computer is probably set for a 50% retrace of the entire move, may as well sit back and relax and enjoy the show.
I'm (gulp) betting my entire house of cards on this one.
Goldman has settled the TARP warrants
Computers don't read balance sheets, don't care about yields, earnings, p/e's
and market cheering the fact that GS gave the gov 23% return?
Yeah sure, and what about all the TARP money it got from AIG? did they count that bit? Bet they didn't!
Putting a glossy show on to pretend, like those figs today, now who knew about them before the market did? And I bet if you looked into the figs it would be prices went up because more higher priced houses went into foreclosure and that's what pushed the price up!
but you can fool anyone with a neat headline can't you....
like tomorrow, no doubt long term unemployed will be down, not because they got a job... they will be much worse off cos they won't count any more that's all, they won't even be a number.....
I think I have figured it out. US economy may grow at 1-2% next year, lower imports will help! Unemployment will continue to rise, probably to 11% (20% plus in the real world). Despite this, companies will deliver 45% EPS growth in 2010, to leave the market trading on about 13 times. It's a shoo-in buying here, a bargain!
Looks like MS may go green....you've got to be phuckin' kidding me, lol!
The market is so so overbought. For 2 days i have bought SDS SRS FXP and right now i have just bought more. They can keep up this charade for only so long. It is 1:07 est and i still think the market goes down today and tommorow. 7 OUT LINE AWAY!
Throw some EEV in there and you and I will have the same portfolio
You know, I have seen a fair amount of shit in the markets over the past few years. What we have been witnessing over the last two months takes the cake. Yesterday was a prime example. The market volume was broadly negative and in came the ETF buyers around 2 ish. Large blocks of buys that shoved the broad market ETFs higher while I watched the overall market volume do nothing at all.
We saw something similar to this at the very peak of the market before the crash. Markets were making new highs while breadth was decidely negative. I think that had happened only a few times in forty years. And, so we see it again. If this resolves itself to the downside, we know it was simply the pinheads at Goldman and JPM batting stocks back and forth and the market will eventually collapse. If it resolves itself to the upside, then I would gander to say we are pretty well confirmed to be witnessing outright manipulation with endorsement by the Feds in an effort to reflate paper assets.....and provide some great mythology of recovering wealth.
I'll take Manipulation for 200 Alex
Isn't that the daily double?
TD et al, I appreciate these informative topics you've been covering related to HFTrading recently. In many of the names I trade (ETF's in particular), I often get a sense there is false liquidity on the bid/offer. For example, sometimes there will be a 20 or 30K block bid at a given level, and 500 shares will execute there and the bid will drop off a penny or two. I also often find that I cannot get filled reliably on my typical 3-5K shares unless i hit the bid or lift the offer...and sometimes then my order will seem to stall and suddenly the bid/offer is 3 cents away and i'm left with a partial fill. That happens to me a lot, and I trade names you would think would be highly liquid (20mm+ shares/day). One thing about all of this I don't quite understand is market direction/manipulation. If these HFT's and algo robots are really that prevalent & therefore our markets really do lack liquidity, why do we keep churning higher relentlessly for months now? Why are there not days (save for a handful) that the market gets crushed on the downside just like it has been crushing to the upside? Is this some sort of algo/HFT bias? Because it would seem to me that we would see some massive downside action once the market starts heading lower. But every time we go lower the market reverses (see yest 1pm & this morning again).
Where is Sergey these days?
Well I have been in this business for 15 years now.
I know that it's delusional to expect the market to behave rationally.
Yet frankly, with the exception of the tech Bubble in 2000, I have never seen such a disconnect between fundamentals and the market.
The more bad news, the higher the market goes.
Either the market will be endlessly manipulated (which I seriously doubt is feasible) or we will experience quite a dramatic fall in coming weeks/months.
We really are experiencing unprecedented times.
my broker and I just had the same conversation today (it's probably the umpteenth time). he's been a broker for 17 yrs and I've been in the financial sector for 30 yrs.
it truly is an unprecedented time.
tHE SAD THING IS THAT THEY HAVE MORE MONEY THAN US, SO THEY CAN PUSH THIS HIGHER AS MUCH AS THEY WANT UNTIL WE HAVE A CHAIN OF BAD EVENTS OCCURRING RAPIDLY. THEN ALL THE PROGRAM TRADING WILL SELL SELL SELL. OTHERWISE, IT'S VERY DIFFICULT TO BEAT THEM. NEEDLESS TO SAY, THE MARKET IS LIKE THE CASINO; IT'S THEIR RULES, THEIR FLOOR, THEIR MONEY.
hi Tyler,
I thought you might find the VIX FUTURE/VIX charts interesting as it hinting at a SUMMER/AUTUM 2008 replay.
http://reflections-of-reality.blogspot.com/2009...
regards
historyrhymes
Gasparino is just now giving you some free advertising. These fucking morons never learned the timeless truth of he who speaks last loses. They just keep flogging you and giving you free advertising. And, then in return, more and more readers who are able to experience an alternative reality. That pig Michele CC just made remark about intelligence and bloggers being oxymorons. She lines up as one of the dumbest stooges on the CNBC payroll. Big boobs only get you so far in life.
Btw, I remember Gasbagweiner or Gasparino clearly defending Wall Street time and time and time again until the general public started to turn on them. Btw, only because of bloggers. Only.
I think the lesson of the past four months is don't short a manipulated market. Those who try might as well just write a check directly to GS to save time.
What are you folks complaining about. Bernanke was just voted the greatest man in the world to manuever us through this financial crisis in a recent poll conducted by investors worldwide. What's not to believe about this?
No sacrcasm intended.
By whom ? The Rothchilds, Morgans, Warburgs and Schiffs ?
VXX getting absolutely smoked.
Boo for volatility crush... Let's hope weekend effects help on Friday.
It's called unlimited funds from the discount window for a hedge fund. therefore thre is no exhaustion point.
What's the vig on that? Oh yeah, virtually Zero. Then turn around and deposit the purchases at the Fed for interest payments...
I wonder how much interest they pay on S&P futures deposits.
The S&P 500 is testing the trendline
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=W&yr=2&mn=9&dy=0&id=p04726740514&a=169398183
no 10/40 bullish cross yet, and the MACD is signaling weakening upside momentum...but if you check out an hourly bar chart, the rally from early this month has been technically very strong, and it certainly seems like institutions are running this momentum on this time frame - end of hourly rallies (starting around :55) are happening a lot.
These pigs are hellbent on blowing up the stock market bubble yet again.
They have no new tricks, so they are pulling out the old 1999-2000 playbook.
SBUX today is a perfect example of the lunacy.
You'd think their coffee cured cancer now........
What Goldman predcits.
Take as your guide their $200/barrel call for year end 2008, and where we actually ended up. Apply the same discount to their year end S&P call.
Bullish sentiment is near all time high:
[url]http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$BPCOMPQ&p=D&yr=10&mn=0&dy=0&id=p86281075197[/url]
Instead of staying on the sideline and getting mad, why not join them? Load up on them spoo calls :)
Though i am not as short as i could be (to be delta neutral) I do agree that it far past the time to be net short, however the stench coming out of this market as it makes its way through blowing all technical indicators, I reckon it is better to sit out and wait till hard data hits earnings the way CRE is geting hammered right now, before one is net short...
Apocalypse Now: Psst- What if you had unlimited funds (SLP) and everyone with a brain was short but using stop limits like any rational being? Could you pick up a spread that was the difference between the short buy in price and stop limit if you were GS by continuing to use taxpayer funds to buy up the market on low volume, buying long themselves (of course inside info), writing puts on their inventory of shares, and short squeezing? If there is naked phantom shorting, could they just as easily have naked phantom longs??????? This is the easiest & cheapest way to manipulate consumer sentiment to stimulate spending by the masses since everyone feels their wealth is equivalent to the last traded stock price even though it could have been 100 shares traded at the close +$2.00.