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For Those That Didn't Notice the Worse Asset Quality on Record for PNC's Blowout Q3-09 Results
PNC has reported strong accounting earnings for Q3-09 and lower
charge-offs as well as lower 90 day lates. The press and the blogs were
all over it as a news search in Google reveals:
PNC Financial Services profit jumps 88% - MarketWatch PNC Financial Services Group (NYSE:PNC) said that its third-quarter net profit jumped to $467 million, or $1.00 a share, ...
The sell side jumps on the bandwagon as well... Wells Fargo Upgrades PNC Financial Services Group (PNC) to Outperform; Raises ... StreetInsider.com (subscription)
As a result their share jumped more than 10%.
But, and there is always a but, if we look at the bigger picture things really don't look so rosy...
As a matter of fact, if anyone really bothered to look at the numbers
offered (not even the real 10Q numbers, but the numbers offered in the
conference call), one would realize that there was no real improvement
in asset quality, despite lower charge-offs. As a matter of fact, asset
quality AND loan quality got worse, not better - both quarter over
quarter and year over year!!! This was the crux of the share price
collapse in PNC to begin with. What the hell is wrong with those
charged with analyzing these companies???
The BoomBustBlog PNC Financial Results Review - 3Q09
PNC
Financial Services (PNC) reported strong earnings growth in 3Q2009
primarily off lower loan provisioning for loan losses and lower
non-interest expenses. Lower provision for losses despite a substantial rise in non-performing assets, and contracting interest earning assets (which
declined 3.1% q-o-q in 3Q2009- at the sharpest rate among all leading
banks which have reported their 3Q2009 earnings till date) raise concerns over sustainability of continuing growth in returns to shareholders in the near-to-medium term.
PNC
reported 3Q2009 net profit per diluted share of $1.0 compared with net
profit per diluted share of $0.14 per share in 2Q09, well ahead of both
our and consensus estimates.From an operational standpoint, they
outperformed our estimates - kudos to management!
PNC's
total net revenues increased 1.5% q-o-q to around $4,048 million in
3Q09 compared with $3,987 million in 2Q09. Non-interest income
increased 1.2% q-o-q to $1,826 million in 3Q09 primarily due to growth
in asset management fees (up 16.3% q-o-q to $242 million) and other
income (up 5.7% q-o-q to $314 million) partially offset by reduction in
mortgage fees which decreased 15.5% q-o-q to $207 million off lower
loan refinancing volumes. In 3Q09, non-interest revenues accounted for
45.1% of the total net revenues against 45.3% and 39.5% in 2Q09 and
3Q08, respectively.
Net
interest income increased 1.8% q-o-q to $2,222 million in 3Q09 compared
with $2,182 million in 2Q09 off higher net interest margin (NIM) which
increased 16bps q-o-q to 3.76% in 3Q09 compared with 3.60% in 2Q09. The
growth in NIM was primarily due to interest rate on deposit which
declined from 1.25% in 2Q09 to 1.04% at the end of 3Q09. This positive
impact was offset by decline in average earning assets, down a significant 3.1% q-o-q to $243.2 billion in 3Q09 compared with $235.7 billion in 2Q09.
The management forecasts a flat net interest income for 4Q09 (compared
with 3Q09) due to marginal improvement in NIM off benefit from
re-pricing of its high interest rates on deposits.
In
3Q-09 PNC's net charge-offs declined to $650 million (down 18.2% q-o-q)
or 1.59% of average loans on an annualized basis compared with $795
million, or 1.89% of average loans in 2Q09. Nevertheless, nonperforming
assets (NPAs) grew 19.1% q-o-q to $5.6 billion or 3.50% of total loans
as of September 30, 2009 led by increase in nonperforming commercial
loans (up 26.2% q-o-q) and residential real estate loans (up 40.4%
q-o-q) in 3Q09.
Click to enlarge
Non-interest
expenses declined 10.5% q-o-q to $2,379 million in 3Q09 compared with
$2,658 million in 2Q09 primarily due to lower acquisition and
integration costs (non-recurring), reversal of $66 million of an
indemnification charge related to Visa litigation (non-recurring), and FDIC assessment of $133 million in the 2Q09 (will probably recur over several quarters).
PNC realized cost savings of around $200 million in 3Q09 off its
acquisition of National City Corporation (NCC), in line with the
Company's two years goal of reducing annualized non-interest expenses
by $1.2 billion. Consequently, the Bank's
efficiency ratio improved considerably by 790 basis points q-o-q to
58.8% in 3Q09 as compared to 66.7% and 68.4% in 2Q09 and 3Q08,
respectively.
Net income available to common shareholders were $467 million in 3Q09 compared with meager $65 million in 2Q09.
Asset Quality - No real improvement seen despite lower charge-offs
PNC's
credit losses shrunk in 3Q09, with gross charge-offs declining to $738
million (annualized charge-off rate of 1.8%) in 3Q09 from $881 million
(annualized charge off rate of 2.1%) in 2Q09, while the provisions for
loan losses totalled $914 million in 3Q09 (annualized rate of 2.3%)
against $1,087 million (annualized rate of 2.6%) in 2Q09.
However,
nonperforming loans increased significantly to $5,126 million (3.19% of
total loans) at the end of 3Q09 from $4,156 million (2.52% of total
loans) at the end of 2Q09 and remained comparatively high when compared
with $841 million (1.12% of total loans) at the end of 3Q08. Total
non-performing assets also increased to $5,644 million (3.51% of total
loans) in 3Q09 compared with $4,656 million (2.82% of total loans) at
the end of 2Q09. However, the 90 days past due loans declined to $875
million at the end of 3Q09 from $1,043 million at the end of 2Q09. The
surge in tangible equity and contraction in 90 days past due loans led
to moderate decline in Texas ratio to 50.0% in 3Q09 against 51.7% in
2Q09. This is, however, considerably higher compared to 19.9% in 3Q08.
Loans and Deposits - continuing to contract in 3Q2009
In
3Q09, PNC's total loan portfolio declined to $162.0 billion at the end
of 3Q09 from $168.9 billion in 2Q09. The decline in loans was driven by
8.0% decrease in commercial, 3.6% decline in commercial real estate,
and a relatively modest decline in consumer loans, owing to tough
lending and credit environment. Further, the total deposits also
declined to $183.8 billion in 3Q09 from $190.4 billion in 2Q09
primarily on the back of divestiture
of its 61 branches (and $4.1 billion of deposits and $800 million of
loans) in September 2009. Consequently, the loan-to-deposit ratio
increased 73bps q-o-q to 87.4% at the end of 3Q09 compared with 86.6%
in 2Q09.
Tier 1 capital
In
3Q09, tier 1 common ratio and tier 1 risk-based capital ratio improved
20bps and 30bps q-o-q to 5.5% and 10.8%, respectively, largely owing to
the increase in retained earnings and decline in risk weighted assets.
At this point, our forensic research on PNC still stands sans the
surprisingly positive EPS performance from the quarter. Asset quality
and the potential for significant future loan losses still loom ahead.
Subscribers can download the following analysis history. There is a
free public option at the bottom. I would also like to note that I have
re=opened the monthly retail subscription option and will start
allowing analysts to interact (on a limited basis) with professional
subscribers in the discussion and comment forums.
PNC Report 050508 revised 2008-08-30 06:38:42 711.95 Kb
PNC Report_update final - Pro 2008-10-15 13:21:22 590.98 Kb
PNC Report_update final - Retail 2008-10-15 13:21:38 337.21 Kb
PNC SCAP Results recast using FDIC and NY Fed data - Pro 2009-05-15 07:31:21 455.37 Kb
PNC SCAP Results recast using FDIC and NY Fed data - Retail 2009-05-15 07:30:25 395.18 Kb
PNC Simulated Government Stress Test 2009-05-01 13:09:19 664.87 Kb
PNC Stress Test Pro 2009-04-13 02:10:17 3.11 Mb
PNC Stress Test Retail 2009-04-13 02:11:08 323.51 Kb
PNC Stress Test update - Professional 2009-04-21 15:55:56 3.00 Mb
PNC Stress Test update - Retail 2009-04-21 15:53:52 777.50 Kb
PNC stress test write up - public lite 2009-07-27 02:37:11 995.30 Kb
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Sure PNC sucks, but which regional bank would you rather own? (don't tell me NTRS - its not a regional bank) Everybody else is worse.
The one that emerges out of FDIC with the assets written down to 20c, debt eliminated, and loads of fresh new equity from investors. Until then, it's wait and see and enjoy the show..
I'll bet if you wait for the FFIEC reports you will find a bunch of junk moved from the balance sheet to securities. JPM has been doing this with home equity loans. If you look at the securitized home equity performance page 19 of the JPM bank holding company report you will find disturbing numbers. Net loss on Securitized Assets as % of Type. For Home Equity
09/30/08 31.76%
12/31/08 32.57%
03/31/09 36.55%
06/30/09 46.93%
The only way I figure you can have 4 consecutive quarters with net losses on a portfolio of 30+% is if every quarter you are adding more crap to the portfolio.
If you look at the earnings call presentation for JPM 3rd quarter you see a massive jump in the investment banking loan losses. It seems they continue to move crap off the balance sheet on into SIVs where they can hide the losses and offset them with the huge fees they are making as managing partner in the $2Trillion in 3rd party repo's for the FED.
Thanks for the great work Reggie.