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Someone please pass on to Mr. Middleton that he should un-install Microsoft Powerpoint from his computer.
I feel confident that HE knows what he meant to impart, but it's a shock to the eyeballs to see he expects me to wade through all that to find out what the hell his main point is supposed to be.
The chart porn's out of hand.
Okay we know the Case Shiller index sucks. How about the FHFA?
I wonder how this analysis looks when one breaks out the individual areas from the aggregate. The black holes that are FL, NV, CA, can bring down the nation as a whole.
Side Note: A broker told me how now was the time to buy due to record low interest rates, record high affordability. The broker has rented for 15 years.
tahoebum. It doesn't work like that. I'm in Massachusetts not Cali but I don't think you can just get a project approved anywhere in Cali on the spur of the moment. It just doesn't work like that. If its like Massachusetts, you need allot at least a year of permitting time for drawing up plans and getting permits, more like 15 months, for any project more than just a couple lots.
And I seriously doubt that Wall Street was calling up Lennar telling them to build houses. Did they also call up fish and exhort them to swim?
Stage was set early on in 2002-2004 when the interest rates were reduced to record lows. First stage was to buy up big swaths of land to inflate raw values. Once the synthetic markets took hold and the fenzy was fueled it was game on! I'll gladly walk you down the street of dreams in any of these towns so you can see it for youself. Don't fool yourself into thinking that everything was regulated. Big difference between Mass. and Cali and the biggest difference was that Cali had the bulk of unqualified suckers to stuff into their houses.
Thanks again for keeping this issue at the forefront, Reggie! Looking forward to your appearance on Bloomberg!
So, why is Lennar’s most profitable division essentially a hedge fund that buys and sells bad mortgages and REOs? Because they were a big part of the original plan and they still want their cut. Lets not forget when the CDO and MBS market was on a binder, Wall St. would call up these builders and say, " We need another town in California next month". The builders would deliver and build the next leg of the scam...Lets name it Lincoln, Manteca, Mountain House, or Elk Grove. They would build the town for Wall St. and put anybody with a heartbeat into the house and package the toxic crap up and sell it as a AAA rated investment to what ever sucker came along. Meanwhile knowing the whole thing would come crashing down they were buying up CDS from AIG just waiting to get paid on the other end when the whole scam came unraveled. What a great deal, get paid on both ends! GS was the bread winner even though they were the ones that were driving the bus into the cement wall. So now that the scam has crashed the builders don't want to be left out in the cold? or were they in so deep with the financial crooks that they have to be taken care of otherwise...maybe they sing? I wonder why there is nobody in Jail? These top builders were lining their pockets building cheap $200k houses and selling them for $699k? WTF......Now they are a hedge fund? and you wonder why? Once in the mafia, always in the mafia, that is until you're dead.
what happens to Rialto when the foreclosure fraud class action suits go viral?
The real question is how much more government intervention. The HOUSE will double down on their bet. The government has the most to lose if their house of cards (no pun intended) crumbles. The perception of a stabilize housing drives consumer confidence, spending, construction, refinancing, political unrest, monetary confidence… etc.
The government is hoping that stabilizing housing will result in a cheaper dollar and inflation of all other goods.
Good points, Reggie.
None of these reporting services can measure what isn't happening. The market is not clearing. The inventory numbers are a bad joke. In the midatlantic, you could buy half the town if you were a serious buyer, but there are almost no serious buyers at anything close to these asking prices. Look out below.
Reggie, I haven't complimented you on your posts - but I really should. So I am doing so now. Thoughtful and full of datapoints. Wish you were on some mainstream media so the talking bobble-heads had a real reporter to look up to.
Good work, man.
Thanks for posting this Reggie, shows very clearly the real state of housing as an actual business instead of a fluffed statistic. This is significant because the housing market is such an important part of our economy and shows no signs of improving, particularly in light of the foreclosure mess that will put a stop to probably the only segment of the market that was actually moving pretty well. In other words, home sales are about to fall off yet another cliff, yet, home prices will probably remain relatively flat or even improve slightly. This creates the false impression that the housing market is improving when it clearly isn't.
Just saw that this is going to be on TV, awesome, very excited about this!
Don't forget to mention that mortgage rates through all of this are at historic lows and still not having a significant positive impact on RE sales.
Also the "reasons," i.e. excuses, for poor RE sales figures were weather for the first 3 months of 2010, then tax season, and they still had the tax credit, then it was summer was too hot or the oil spill was distracting, it was/is always something - but never that there is a depression.
Housing used to be 6% of GDP; now it is 2%.
It's $ in ...$out...
Not what the condo sold for ...in the building...
Good observations RM...
Just like Bill Gross mentioned previously.....if the government does not participate in the mortgage market....Firm's like Pimco would want proof of an income stream and 30% down....
So what would house values be under this scenario ?
Thus as shaky as the government is....one would only want to buy at a conservative number...reflective of Gross's comments.....
Which would be much lower prices.....
My friend sold his house, accidently, in 2005. He profited nicely. He held the profit in cash and purchased another home in a different state where it was significantly cheaper to live. He sold that house shortly afterwards in 2007. He sat on the cash as I tried to explain that the markets would move downward.
The tax credit from the government created a cushion, altering the perception of the buyer.
His logic to purchase again was rooted in the actual expenses he incurred each month. He was paying rent, and other costs that would be incurred in a property he owned ... why not buy? How much does the market have to decline for him to have made a bad decision to purchase?
At $160k, a drop of 20% is $32k ... renting, he was loosing about $600 a month (not a scientific determination).
That is 53 months ... just inside his target of 60 months before he expected he would ever sell the property. So, if the property drops more than 25% in the next five years, he will have lost money on the deal. Having never seen the Great Depression and not educated about the particulars of how a market functions, he assumes that prices cannot fall that much or that fast, and if they do they will recover in time.
What makes his purchase decision truly abhorent is when you price it in gold, or adjust it for inflation. The experience of watching him waste dollar bills was an eye opener: consumers cannot think beyond paycheck to paycheck, so they don't make decisions outside of that framework.
His reasoning is rooted in his perception of value in the stability of dollar denomination. He doesn't expect the USD to become toilet paper ... it can't in his mind. He doesn't value gold, so it's lost purchasing power are irrelevant to his purchasing decisions. Gas, food, cars, real estate make sense to him. They are simple, tangible, assets that he expects to need and consume. He realizes that a phenomenom is causing the purchasing power of his dollars to go down as prices go up ... but he in unable to associate the reasons for this reality.
A condo next door was selling for 25% less within three months of his purchase.
I expect the USG to announce another "tax credit" in January that will begin in April. I would expect something in the $18k to $35k range ... anything to keep retail purchases and prices up.
Consumers will continue to buy as the market slides down more and more ... but ever so gently. In accordance, without another massive printing of cash by the Fed, dollar denominated assets will continue to experience price deflation. This slow decline is the race to the bottom.
Not everyone can be a financial wiz.
Excellent commentary, Reggie. Thank you.
case shiller has its flaws. it excludes bank owned single family homes, and they are significant in some states. plus on new homes, the builder may not lower the price, but instead throws in $50,000 worth of upgrades. case shiller seems to get thrown around like its the equivalent of the s&p500 and its not.
Shhh...Better to not have this go viral.
Once Barney Frank, Christopher Dodd, Christopher Cox (whatever happened to that nimwit who has managed to escape without so much as strap spanking?) CONgress and the bamster get hold of it, they'll come up with some scheme to put the homeless, drifters, grifters, illegal aliens, impecunious runaways, crack-whores, and dickie fuld, in those millions of houses under section 8.
at the last instant before they were homeless, etc., or otherwise lost to it, that's what the government already did... this isn't a prospective thing... it already happened... middle america aren't the only ones who have failed to recognize their appropriate (real) standard of living...
yeah, another one for you reg. if you keep spitting out the facts this economic thingie is never going to turn around. i urge everyone to read msn daily and avoid the facts. don't worry, be happy. no depression here.
I wonder how much houses where already accidentally burned down that where fully insured...
Do the fire departments keept track of that?
These days when the neighbors see a house fire they all know to wait 10 minutes before calling the fire department...
(and do everything short of putting on the foam number 1 hand and cheering it towards their houses).
Got one 1.5 blocks from me, close enough to have smelled the smoke. 2,000SF 1950's job on a really nice corner lot - a major underimprovement. Burned to the ground in late 2006 after the guy bought it for $725K in 2004. I don't know the, ahem, cause. In any case, the guy put up a 5,000 SF'er in 2007, still lives there. Probably worth $1.3M in 2007, perhaps $950K today. Probably not working out like he might have hoped.
Arson was not detected or you would have heard about it big time. They like to keep the citizens warned about "serious offenses" like arson and insurance fraud.
Like the DUI "public service announcements" on TV where the guy's car is filled to the window with beer or a cocktail: "you will be caught !"
Insurance companies sniff out arson like pregnant women sniff out pickles and ice cream... if the guy did burn it down, he was smart enough not to use accelerants (had a local guy maybe 15 years back use rocket fuel to burn down his house... insurance didn't pay... doh!)... an attorney around here got busted for this I believe... jury (all women) verdict for the state... looking at 10 to life, loss of law license, and probably loss of butt cherry...
Practically speaking, they're going to have to be bulldozed or burned one way or the other... sounds like your guy is just getting the party started. Although, it might be best to wait to save the wood for winter when the electricity is out and heating oil is too expensive to purchase.
I got caught and there wasn't a drop of alcohol in the car. It was all in me. Those public service announcements are misleading.
this is a great question.
Reggie, you may want to revise your chart figures as you are quoting quadrillions and up.
Maybe change the commas for points, as in 1.946 trillion.
The charts dobhqve typos but I am on he run now. Will update them later.
From the Department of Stoopid Department, courtesy of our local rag...a bankrupt mixed-use center foreclosure was delayed due to new tenants - one a homebuilder and the other a commercial RE brokerage founded in 2009. Two solid gold tenants, no doubt.
The blind leading the blind. Keep at it, Reg.
What a great article. Not just a thought piece, not just an opinion .. research, analysis, conclusions. Thanks, Mr. Middleton.
Case-Shiller is upwardly biased because it cherry-picks the best part of the market, existing single family homes that can be resold, and also because it does not reflect an accurate basis for tear-downs because there is no info on MLS on the cost of building the new property.
Tell it, brother. The pathologically persistent housing fetish reminds me of the dotcom yelpers yammering about treasures like DrKoop.com, Peapod, CDNow.com until well into the next bubble. Bricks and mortar didn't turn out too well, either.
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