Three Month Delayed Case-Shiller In Line With Expectations, Y/Y Composite At 3.18% Vs Exp. Of 3.10%, Peak Inflection Point Passed
July's three month backward looking, and thus irrelevant, Case Shiller Composite-20 index came at 147.81 SA (0.3% increase), and 148.91 NSA (up 0.6%). The Y/Y change was 3.18%, in line with expectations of 3.10%. From the report: "Data through July 2010, released today by Standard & Poor’s for its S&P/Case-Shiller1 Home Price Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices, show that the annual growth rates in 16 of the 20 MSAs and the 10- and 20-City Composites slowed in July compared to June 2010. The 10-City Composite is up 4.1% and the 20-City Composite is up 3.2% from where they were in July 2009. For June they were reported as +5.0% and +4.2%, respectively. Although home prices increased in most markets in July versus June, 15 MSAs and both Composites saw these monthly rates moderate in July." The Y/Y rate of change has now peaked and is declining: last month the change was revised to 4.21%, and as the chart below shows, there is only downside in store.
And some comments:
“Home prices crept forward in July. Ten of the 20 cities saw year-over-year gains and only one – Las Vegas – made a new bottom, as the impact of the first time home buyer program continued to fade away,” says David M. Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee at Standard & Poor’s. “The year-overyear growth rates for 16 of the cities and both Composites weakened in July compared to June. While we could still see some residual support from the homebuyers’ tax credit, which covers purchases closingthrough September 30th, anyone looking for home price to return to the lofty 2005-2006 might be disappointed. Judging from the recent behavior of the housing market, stable prices seem more likely.
“In the monthly data, 12 of the 20 MSAs and the two Composites were up in July over June; but the monthly rates also seem to be weakening. The next few months may give us an idea of the true strength of the housing market, as the temporary economic stimuli will have ended. Housing starts, sales and inventory data reported for August do not show signs of a robust market, and foreclosures continue.”