This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.
Three Trillion Dollars Later: Charting A Recovery Only Failed Fiscal And Monetary Policy Can Buy
Another indicator of what the US "recovery" looks like come courtesy of the Chicago Fed National Activity Index. As can be seen in the chart below, one can only wonder just what recovery the US would have if it did not spend $3 trillion to kickstart the virtuous (or better make that virtual) economic cycle when it did. And by the looks of facts (and not Tim Geithner spin), the downward inflection point has now arrived. Next up: another $1-1.5 trillion in monetary stimulus, although admittedly in a form that may be slightly different from the LSAPs we have all grown used to love and expect each and every day at 11:00 am EST.
courtesy of John Poehling
»
- 12487 reads
- Printer-friendly version
- Send to friend
- advertisements -
This time the drop in activity will be measured in weeks not quarters!
Recovery Summer Part Deux!
Have fun ZH, been nice knowin' ya ;-)
No, that's not appropriate.
http://hypertiger.blogspot.com/
Let the liquidation games begin...
Better get some hyperinflation soon or the daydream is going to turn into a nightmare.What a bunch of maroons...
Happy days are here again.
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_TtHJo9yYX8A/Sa2lxOA07mI/AAAAAAAAA7Q/FtKaWBkvMX...
Ok, so can someone expain why the only "-" bar that is red is the one on the end?
Shouldn't all of them be red except for the few positives?
Coloring it red does not make it an inflection point.
Not quibbling, but isn't $3T a bit light?
sschu
They cracked the spigot when they needed to open the spillway.
The data in the Index is probably manipulated (tortured) up, and this is the best they can do. At least Steve LIESman will have a positive spin to it.
Over the last 30 years both the rate and scope of economic crises have increased .... the response has always been the same: welfare for the rich and socialism-for-the-top10% ......and this is what you get!
.... there needs to be a rebalancing of the distribution of wealth ....
stop the policies that promote wealth extraction from the real economy ....
instead promote a strong middle class and invest into worthy ideas and endeavours ...
then you'll get growth ....
Sorry, our priority is to buy things from China, have them serviced in Pakistan, and tossed into a landfill in the good ol USA. We don't need no steenkin middle class...
Actually one of our largest exports to china is trash.
As stupid as that sounds, it is actually improving our trade balance with China .... unfuckingbelievable!?!?!
http://www.usnews.com/opinion/blogs/jodie-allen/2010/03/03/americas-bigg...
Rather telltale, isn't it?
Is debt considered an export now?
Don't forget: the aspirational US consumer is encouraged to buy West (autos, suits, shoes, bags, ties, wine) while the average US joe and jane are encouraged to buy East. It's a very very sophisticated economic model
Not at all sophisticated .... it just reflects declining middle class wealth in the west, and rising in the east.
Pardon me, but I've been told by Nobel Laureate economists that it's very sophisticated: US citizens wave credit cards at foreign nations that make stuff. They produce, we consume! And everybody's happy! And the Fed has a magic machine in the basement that makes it all possible.
It's gotten to the point that work has gotten in the way of more consumption! The solution? Mass unemployment with mass Federal relief and banks letting people live rent-free! It's a win-win-win
:-)
Esteemed Nobel Laureates provide our great nation with enlightened guidance.
http://www.google.com/imgres?imgurl=http://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/defa...
Go away obama. You do have a good and no doubt unintended good point though,...................there needs to be a rebalancing of the distribution of wealth (power as well).....................Away from the Mafia thug central government and toward the former wards of the state/useful idiots that have so foolishly fallen for your ponzi.
The game is up and when the dust settles you goofs will not have your dreamed for marxist revolution.
Freedom will take the prize despite your crafty efforts.
Invest?
Invest what you asshat? Our money is already gone, you spent it foolishly long ago.
WTF!?!?
Funny is fine ... but try to keep it meaningful as well!
I don't have the time to explain it all to you ...
read this comment from somebody else and that should do:
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/carl-icahn-confesses-system-not-working...
Carl? WTF? I read it already. My comment would be Duh! Look up captain obvious and things that make you go Hmmm.
I'm not meaning to go after you specifically and/or individually.
Perhaps I'm a bit trigger happy when I see the term INVEST. I'm quite sincere however in disparaging the idea. It is Leftist claptrap, nothing more than an excuse to pay off the status qou.
The public sector is BROKE. The can has been kicked far enough and Keynesian voodoo needs to become a history lesson. So don't take it personally or anything; just accept that it is grow up time now. obama and his asshat wanna be mafia represent nothing but what is most wrong with this already failed but to big to know it yet social experiment.
Bring on the pain. Better I suffer than my grandchildren. Just get it the fuck over with and stop the game.
I did not mean government-guided and funded investments ....
What I mean is that right now the system is structured so that investors have no incentives to put their money into the real economy, when there is a no-risk casino all set up for them ....
What made our Country great was a system based on:
Inventors -> patents -> investors -> funding -> workers -> wages + returns for investors and inventors.
Right now we have investment for investment sake .... what do algos know about great ideas and worthy endeavours?
.... The oligarchs have us fighting among ourselves as they enjoy pure, unadulterated wealth extraction.
:) I thought you might be a troll. I'm good with you now. Sorry for the outburst.
Pakistan now under the Chinese umbrella; the Bin Laden psyop was supposed to give us leverage. Even Hillary and Kerry, the 2 biggest NWO proponents couldn't save the day. There must be more war to distract the sheeple from their empty wallets. The banksters are slowly running out of options, even as the police state closes around us. The Euro ressolution will be telling.
police state: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eWuu84ENFRs
I just wonder how the fiscal year budgets are going to look like at the bankrupt states next month as the stimulus packages from the economic recovery end and they all scramble to well...scramble to just stay afloat (should be good for a big GDP push, rigth? Well, no).
USA USA USA!!!
USA! USA!
four more years, four more years, four more years !
$3 Trillion? Isn't that $10,000 for every man woman and child in America? They couldn't stimulate the economy with that?
Obviously they never gave any of it to any of the people that were evacuated from Katrina. Those people really knew how to stimulate an economy with government money (bars, liquor stores, strips joints).
Of course, the banks and crony corps got most of the $3T they're not giving it up.
If you add it all up, each US family could have received $75,000. That woulda stimulated some trickle-up fireworks
It's actualy $25,000. per hoursehold or so, but the point is the same.
The money went to friends of the state (like banks), of course, not to 'normal' people.
Aww come on, give some up to the kids in those households, too. They grow up fast these days. Spread that wealth all around to every man, woman, and child which is 308 million strong. We'll get this economy rockin'.
$3T? That's what it took to kill Bin Laden. Imagine if $6T was spent entirely in the US
How dare you accuse Timmah G-man of putting a so-called "spin" on things!
Timmah needs to go to jail for a long time, for all the crimes to humanity in the USA!!!
And who exactly is going to do that? A federal judge? Excuse me while I laugh for a few years.
The game is rigged.
Timmy & Co will swing only when the public **has had enough**. Alas Big Brother has far too much revolution insurance: 1) WELL over half of the public depend on the government for either a paycheck or public assistance. Teats A and B. 2) WELL over half of the sheople know more about Snooky and Dancing with the Stars than they do Timmy Geithner. Game over.
One other possibility is a military coup, but rumor has it that the last time this was discussed we ended up with fewer admirals and generals than we began the day with. See: Admiral Jeremy Boorda for example. That was a strange 365 days in D.C. Admirals and others commiting "Arkancide"and former CIA Directors who decided to go kayaking alone at midnight.
Game well over.
**EDIT "...when the public realizes that it's had enough".
With the double dip now becoming more and more obvious, the only question becomes what form will "QE3" take? Benny and the Jets will have to create some form of smoke screen so that the compliant MSM and corrupt capital hill will have something with which to provide cover for them. Maybe the Fed can get kick-backs from the IMF? Maybe the Fed will the ramp back up purchases of MBSs? Imagine the frustration of Benny and the Jets after buying all those MBSs and stoking the fires of inflation in food and energy in the process, but getting no bump up in RE prices.
I'm being a bit slow here. LSAPs?
DavidC
google LSAP + Federal Reserve
Think robbery....you do understand robbery don't you.
ECRI weekly leading down x5 in a row.
Slumping our way to prosperity. Gonna be a long hot summer.
Let's make Greece the 51st state and take them off the Eurozone's hands.
The Fed will simply print even faster if the economy slows down too much.
With the eye-popping rally the last few years in the SPY, it is the only thing the Fed can do which it knows will work.
Print more, boost stocks even higher, and interest rates crash back to 45-year lows.
A speculator's paradise.
I predict that margin interest rates will collapse in 2011 in order to entice even more people into the NYSE casinos.
Too bad that solution would also give a much bigger boost to cost of living, cost of working and doing business.
Caviar Emptor, The Netherlands are the 51st state or like some like to state maybe Israel
Let's turn the chart upside down, then you call it the inactivity chart or the real thing that maybe should have been done.
Actually, the 51st State that makes the most sense for everybody would be Saudi Arabia. For one thing our economic models are converging: half of oil profits go toward packaged social programs to prevent insurgency. They import everything including workers. And they own our banks.
A billion Muslims and a couple hundred nukes might disagree with Saudi Arabia joining the US. On the bright side NY & LA will no longer exist...
If NYC and LA are gone, then ISR is a moot point as the umbilical cord will have been severed. On the whole, the collateral damage of innocent goys would be more than equitable.
Amen. ISR makes no sense at all as the 51st state. The other 50 states help transfer taxes from their citizens to Uncle, and they actually contribute something to the country (aside from spies and traitors and AIPAC. Nevermind, AIPAC was already covered by the first two).
We are all eye witnesses to the death of Keynesian Economics. When the 'spender of last resort' blows a giant wad and it accomplishes nothing, the 'long run' is here.
With all due respect, the last 30 years have been dominated by trickle-down economics, Reaganomics, and supply side economics .... a.k.a. fuck the middle class, race to the bottom, off-shore galore, and outsourcing extraordinaire!!!
You can junk all you want, but facts are facts!!
No junk. Trickle-down is a sick joke. A complete con.
Under Carter the top tax rates were 70% and the top earners only paid 19% of the total tax revenue.
Under Reagan the top tax rates were half of Carter's top rate and the richest paid 40% of total tax revenue.
It worked beautifully.
It's the spending that never stopped. Reagan tried to cut spending, but the house and senate remained democratically controlled and didn't happen much. Clinton didn't balance the budget until both houses of congress were run by conservatives. Clinton vetoed welfare reform 3 times before he bitterly signed it, vowing to overturn it --- now he claims credit for all of it and says it was his greatest accomplishment.
High tax rates only make people like Ted Kennedy put their wealth offshore in Fijian trust accounts instead of building factories. And our high corporate rates (highest in the world) are what make our corporations go away -- corporations don't want to, they have to, and other countries don't come here for the same anti-business reasons.
Milton Friedman was Reagan's economic architect and he also turned Chile and China around. Keynesianism made a comeback only to die another day.
It's difficult to use the simple term "corporate tax rates" in a proper context. Statutory rates, marginal rates, and effective rates are not the same, are they? Ask GE.
My tax rate could be raised to 100% and I could not care less 'cause I ain't paying it.
Sometimes, truth hurts :-(
It just doesn't get any easier... Milton Friedman, you say ....:
on Sun, 05/29/2011 - 21:32
#1321587
Under Carter the top tax rates were 70% and the top earners only paid 19% of the total tax revenue.
Under Reagan the top tax rates were half of Carter's top rate and the richest paid 40% of total tax revenue.
It worked beautifully.
It's the spending that never stopped. Reagan tried to cut spending, but the house and senate remained democratically controlled and didn't happen much. Clinton didn't balance the budget until both houses of congress were run by conservatives. Clinton vetoed welfare reform 3 times before he bitterly signed it, vowing to overturn it --- now he claims credit for all of it and says it was his greatest accomplishment.
High tax rates only make people like Ted Kennedy put their wealth offshore in Fijian trust accounts instead of building factories. And our high corporate rates (highest in the world) are what make our corporations go away -- corporations don't want to, they have to, and other countries don't come here for the same anti-business reasons.
Milton Friedman was Reagan's economic architect and he also turned Chile and China around. Keynesianism made a comeback only to die another day.
*************************************************************
you are a sheep...
reagan added how much debt to the fed balance?
reagan began securitizing debt, he was the 1st.
i refuse to answer the rest of you idiotic bullshit..
reagan is / was clinton and so on..
you have been brain washed by 24 hour a day shit on t.v.!
$19 trillion dollars in 3 years! ... was it spent on wefare?
the top 1% doesnt pay taxes..
the top 1% are the only people making money..
you are a fucking sheep and you and everyone like you have caused america to be where it is today! and!!!!!!!!!! you are guilty of treason.. for being sooooo fucking stupid!
What makes you think the so-called "supply side" economics as practiced by the federal government isn't just Keynesianism by another name? After all, haven't we spent most of the past 30 years in a more or less permanent state of stimulus through ever-increasing government debt, all to keep consumerism going? And there is nothing anti-Keynesian about off-shoring, outsourcing, etc... Keynes wasn't a protectionist, and was all for international trade.
Facts are facts. Keynesianism never went away; it was just relabeled, repackaged, and repurposed. We're still using government spending/debt to juice consumption... and that's Keynesianism.
Whatever dude!
I mean ... the rich get waaayyyyyyyy richer .... the middle class disappears ..... speculation becomes rampant .... markets become speculative casinos with no relation to the real economy .... the government bails out banks and financial institutions (i.e. the Oligarchy) ..... trickle down never happens, istead we have pump-it-up ....
and we still have morons talking socialism and keynesian bullshit .....
indeed, we do have a welfare state .... welfare for the top 10% ....
Uninformed is one thing .... blatantly stupid is just toooo much!!!
"blatantly stupid is just toooo much!!!"
So stop looking in the mirror.
Go to "Polyconomics" if you need a refresher course in Supply Side Economics. Find "The Crash of 1929" if you can. Read Paul Craig Roberts' history of his time in the Reagan Admin. BTW, you want some real history? Almost everyone on this site stares up to heaven all starry eyed at the mention of St. Paul Volcker. Do you wanna know the story from PCR? The Reagan Treasury had talked to Volcker and had a "Gentleman's Agreement" that the reduction in the rate of growth in the Money Supply would come over a 3 year time frame. Volcker gave the whole program in 6 months.
Your buddies - the people who gave you your rote recitation objections - howled when the recession of the early 80s took hold and bit hard. Friedman knew what had happened. So did Paul Craig Roberts.
Rather than deal with facts, however, you recycle Leftist Cant which is descriptive of the measures you yourself would take:
"Most one-term Presidents only have time for one truly disastrous decision. Herbert Hoover squeezed in two. Having crimped international trade, he proceeded in 1932 to squeeze the domestic economy directly by pushing through Congress a measure to boost the income-tax rate back to 63% from 25% and piling on business taxes too. His aim was to reduce the budget deficit of the preceding 18 months, caused by the gathering slowdown. With ample help from the Democrats, Congress approved the tax increase. Under Roosevelt, economic management was only slightly improved, for even as he and his party chipped away at Smoot-Hawley, they again and again added to internal taxation during the following eight years, and the depression lengthened into war."
Wanniski, "The Crash of 1929", if you can find it.
Addendum: The Democrats are thinking of raising the Tax Rate to ~ 62% according to Drudge. Good ol' Democrat Supply Side Economics I suppose.
See ya' in the soup lines pal...
CW
The Drudge Report referenced a Wall Street Journal article:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142405270230406650457634361146444559...
CW
Duplicate. Computer hiccup.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5WC9CpdeHF8
Seen this? Damon Vickers talks about Greenback armageddon
Esse ist percipi.
As long as we don't see X consecutive "down" quarters, it's all lollipops and cotton candy.
"Intentionality" requires that Ben "thinks" he knows what he is doing when "DOOM" multiplies problems fractally and explodes exponentionally.
I still think we are in a war with whoever sponsored the "Electronic Run on the Bank" and now I wonder if Ben's intentionality is also now aimed a new target - directly into the White House. If "Timing is Everything", we shall see an initiated collapse that springs into being at the perfect moment to cause all leading indicators to shout "COLLAPSE" on November 1.
No QE3. This is the Big Moment. Right now.
CW
isn't the chi-town FED more susceptible to seasonal and other transitory variances?
Looks like Goldman has given all the sovereigns better prices to get out of there risk assets. Goldman is always doing Gods, no matter how stupid they are!!!
Epic Phail
one can whack
many badgers
with 3 trillion ..
When Faith In U.S. Dollars And U.S. Debt Is Dead The Game Is Over – And That Day Is Closer Than You May Think
http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/archives/when-faith-in-u-s-dollars-an...
Save Us From The Tyranny Of Bankers
http://theinternationalforecaster.com/International_Forecaster_Weekly/Sa...
Can you imagine the numerous tell-all books that will be writtn a decade from now? Each book promoting the actions of the author. It would have worked if so and so had only listened to me...but my cries were in vain and the recovery died. These books will appear in the bargain bin at Wal-Mart.
Americans still won't read it and won't know what happned to them. Now if you cut off the cable or the DISH network, they will riot.
if we could perhaps construe this chart as a lagging econom indicactor rather than a lagging econom, that would be more bullish, right?
Best remedy for the US economy is a strong US dollar that causes commodity prices to go down and leaves more dollars in the average Americans pocket for discretionary spending, and investing in the American economy.
What? Which cereal box did you read that off of?
Put down that pipe now. I repeat, put down that pipe.
A recent estimate was 10 trillion worldwide. How much of that lined the pocket of ceos and bankers?
Dodd-Frank will save us all ;-)