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Thrilling Thursday – Comedy or Tragedy?
Thrilling Thursday – Comedy or Tragedy?
Courtesy of Phil of Phil's Stock World
Russell 8-0-0, Russell 8-0-0! Wherefore art thou Russell8-0-0? Deny thy dollar and refuse to fall, or, if thou spike not, be but consolidating at resistance and I’ll happily Capitulate….
If it's good enough for fair Juliet, it's going to have to be good enough for us as the Russell finally makes it over our 800 target - the last barrier that was keeping us on the bearish side. Above these lines - it's time to stop worrying and love the rally as we romanticize the deadly combination of QE2 the Obama tax cuts as: "A pair of star-crossed lovers take their life, whose misadventured piteous overthrows doth with their death bury their parents’ strife."
Of course Willie Shakespeare has nothing on Jimmy Cramer, who's pearls of wisdom are also sure to be repeated centuries from now. Last night the Bard of Wall Street sang a veritable sonnet in praise of the stock market and foretold a tale of woe for anyone dumb enough to take profits into this rally:
We got the correction this morning, Dow fell 35 points... Today's action was proof positive that you need to stop worrying and learn to love corrections... What scares me, and what should scare you, is that if you sell your stocks here, you won't be able to get back in. You should be worried about stocks getting away from you, because I think we can be on the verge of something big - something very positive. FORGET the fact that stocks have run up a lot in the last 6 months. For more than 10 years, this market has done nothing, THAT is the most important frame of reference...
What's changed? We are finally starting to see big breakouts from a slew of breakouts from several large cap companies including: CAT, UTX, FCX, SWK, CBE, ETN, CSX, UNP and so many other big industrials. Ladies and gentlemen, we have waited over a decade for this move and what do people want to do now that it has arrived? They want to sell! That's right, they want to sell. That's right. They want to dump the stocks (sell button sound effect) because they are up way too much short-term or because they think the moves are illusory or driven by short squeezes that will come to and end as soon as we run out of battered short sellers (machine gun sound effects).
In fact, to me it seems like the conventional wisdom among the "punditocracy" (note that anything with "ocracy" attached to it is now evil) is that, other than a few exceptions like maybe QCOM or NFLX, AAPL, AMZN, you shouldn't even bother with most stocks because they can't go up from here until they decline first and "consolidate" (sound effect "the house of pain").
Note the old-time revival feeling as Cramer preaches to the retail investors. You almost want to jump out of your seat and yell "Hellelujah - I see the light and it is carried on fiber-optic cables from GLW with CSCO routers!" But Cramer isn't telling you to buy sensible companies like GLW ($18.98, forward p/e 10, way more cash than debt) or CSCO ($20.77, forward p/e 11, another great balance sheet) that we like to focus on, even in a runaway market. Cramer is selling the snake oil, he is selling the hair tonic and he is selling the religion of "Buy High and Sell Higher," which makes him one of the most dangerous men in America.
Cramer does make the bull case well and yes, we also believe global growth will heal all wounds but we have also learned that market values, like Shakespeare's fairies, are ethereal things that can be there one moment and disappear the next. Cramer chides our caution about "whatever the negative story de jour happens to be" and tells us (and I am not making this up it's at 4:20) "maybe we can't see the positive forest through the data trees." Whuck? Never since Dorothy was told to "pay no attention to that man behind the curtain" has more BS advice been given to rural America.
Wait, I'm sorry, I forgot the other time such bad advice was given to the American people. It was, in fact, just 2 years ago when CNBC in general and Jim Cramer in very particular used the same line of BS reasoning to stampede the poor, innocent sheeple in for the slaughter, right at the top of the market. As Jon Stewart famously pointed out: "If I had only followed CNBC's advice I would have a Million Dollars today --- providing I had started with $100 Million Dollars."
Really, take 10 minutes and watch the above two videos - it's the same nonsense we're hearing today: "Ignore the naysayers, don't ignore the momentum, be afraid to miss out, ignore pockets of bad news, things are great in China...." CNBC, like much of the Mainstream Media is there to get you to BUY things. They want you to spend money and buy stocks from their advertisers - what do you expect them to say? Jon Stewart gave Jim Cramer an entire show to make his case so I will let them retort and you can decide but this is the reason I often say - Be careful out there.
This is not about being bearish, this is about being careful. We were not careful enough in the crash, listening to the advice of Cramer and his fellow cartoon characters, who tell us to "Just Buy the F'ing Dips You F'ing Idiot" - because the key to pushing a sucker into a con is through greed and fear and that's a tune Cramer plays like a maestro, telling you there is a shining city on the hill while at the same time telling you that the last bus to get there is leaving the station and you'd better pay up to get on it. (Unicorn pic credit: Jr. Deputy Accountant )
This kind of advice doesn't even make sense. If we're having the kind of rally where NFLX ($179.73, p/e 46, net tangible assets of $199M, market cap $10Bn) or AMZN ($187.42, p/e 53, NTA $4Bn, market cap $84Bn) are "cheap" then we are not missing any kind of bus by cashing in our profits here. Yesterday I warned Members to do just that on plays from our October 23rd Dividend plays and our Dec 11th Breakout Defense plays (but not our longer-term Dec 25th Secret Santa's Inflation Hedges) that are up ahead of schedule if we now fail ANY of our Breakout II levels (see Stock World Weekly for summary of levels).
I know this makes me seem like a big stick in the mud but I am forced to be the voice of reason when the markets become unreasonable - even though voicing concerns during a rally costs me "ratings." I have said this before, people love the cheerleaders, they want affirmation of their buying decisions, they want to feel good about their investments so they gravitate towards those who tell them what they want to hear. It's human nature - and CNBC et al play off it to get ratings. They don't care if the advice is good or bad - it makes the sponsors happy and it makes the viewers happy and, as 2008-9 has proven - there is no downside - no one except me seems to remember what a tragedy their last round of pom-pom waving caused.
Above 11,500 on the Dow and 1,220 on the S&P we had our Breakout Defense plays and even on the Friday before (Dec 3rd) that, I had put up a couple of high-leverage upside plays to make sure no one would miss out on the Santa Claus Rally. The first one was an FAS Apr $20/25 bull call spread at $2.70, selling the April $21 puts for $2.55 for net .15 on the $5 spread. XLF is, of course, my play of the year(see Secret Santa post) and FAS is a derivative of that one and has since shot up to $30, putting the Apr $20/25 spread at $3.90 and dropping the $21 puts to .85 for net $3.05, up 2,033% on net cash committed in a month.
Perhaps you can see why we don't fear a bull market - as long as we PRESERVE our cash - a monkey with a dartboard, even Cramer, can pick winners in an inflation-driven upside market. Our other play was bullish on oil and commodities (I'll bet you can already guess how that went!) using DBC with a longer play. There were two plays there. One was very simply buying the Apr $27 calls for $1. No margin is required and we were quite sure that inflation was taking commodities higher so we liked the rare (for us) naked position. Those calls are already $1.55, up a nice 55% in their first month but that's the kind of play we kill if they fall back to 45%, despite Cramer's "advice" to HOLDHOLDHOLD.
The other trade idea for DBC was the Jan 2012 $26/30 bull call spread at $1.40, selling the 2012 Jan $22 puts for $1.10 for net .30 on the $4 spread. The $26/30 spread is just $1.60 but the $22 puts have fallen to .75 so a not so bad net gain on cash of 283% out of a potential 1,233% max gain so a bit ahead of schedule in our first month. This is an example of a play we're more likely to let ride as we can ride out a correction buy why on earth would we let the 2,033% gain get away from us or the 55% gain on the straight call that has no hedges?
We're not afraid of a rally - we simply aren't convinced enough that the forces that are driving stocks higher have the fundamental underpinnings to be sustained and we are almost POSITIVE that the market will in no way be able to stand up to any serious bad news (sovereign default, municipal default, bank default, terrorism) - none of which even Cramer can pretend are really off the table. So we will continue to take our money and run and, frankly, this week we've been "Selling the F'ing Pops" as the Cramericans throw their cash into overpriced stocks that we think have an excellent chance of giving us big money on downside moves where we also will be taking the money and running.
We're not bullish or bearish - we're rangeish and, until proven otherwise (Russell 800 would be a start), we will continue to play this as the top of our range.
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Buying hair tonic from a bald guy... That's like buying a dollar from the Bernank...
Now if Cramer the Clown was selling meth... we know that sweaty, raving idiot gets good product...
Comedy or Tragedy?
[X] Pure Comedy
[ ] Sublime Tragedy*
* Only if "Coked Up" Kudlow is involoved...
@ls
you may or may not have been buying the dips but you are a fucking idiot
edit your post before someone replies
wishing harm to evil doers everywhere
even idiots have brains
I'm not sure what you're getting at. Jim Cramer is a good man doing "God's work". Even with his VD.
Cramer lives at 39 Hillcrest Ave Summit, NJ 07901 for people who would like to send fanmail or make a pilgramage.
or just hang out at the Summit, NJ Elks Lodge and meet him over a drink.....don't expect him to be friendly or want to talk shop though.....
as for Prophet (post below)....what is wrong with posting public information? I just replied to the ls post. I see no evidence in the post by ls above of any kind of negative insinuation and certainly any reasonable person would agree there is no call to action or intention of harm in the post by ls.
As for my post, I am only quoting Jim Cramer himself on his own tv show saying where he likes to hang out. Anything wrong with that? Hmmm? Go Phillies, right? OK then sports fans.
You can point out all the mistakes but he's been the only one pounding the table on apple since it was 70. Then at 170 and then 270 and at 310 when no one else would say so publicly so he may be a clown but he's not always wrong. I wonder if anyone shorted AAPL at 190 when he put a 325 price tag on it well before anyone else did and was ridiculed for it. Credit where credit is due. He's not always wrong and he's not always right. It will be fun to see when AAPL finally pulls back to 260 or so and the torch and pitchfork crowd will be chasing all around the City. I'm just sayin' and I'm sure I will get killed but sometimes the truth hurts.
What a joke Cramer is.
I can just feel my IQ dropping as I watch that freak play with his toys.
LOL... I aint selling nuttin. I've nothing to sell. I is bankrupt.
Cramer may prove to be reliable as a person to fade in regard to his recommendations. Cramer says long, we go short. Cramer says sell, and we buy. I wonder if anyone has actually tracked just how bad his picks are.
Cramers been chewing tooooo many coca leaves again. Don't think his heart will last until they bag him and his rhetorical bullshit. What a fucking circus this world has turned into.
Cramer Loves GOLD/SILVER Get out of the metals before it is too late!
Show me a bigger douche and I will eat my hat!
Is this a new NYSE rule...they lock the doors on the way up? That cant be good for rallies.
I will admit though that this psychology (I'm missing the boat, better get aboard) when prevalent is one sign a top is near.
Cramer-logic (think, anti-matter here) has called tops before (BSC, housing, banks, etc.). I wonder if anyone's done a systematic study of his rants (er, calls). My bet is it's a near perfect (inverse) correlation.
Sorry, but I really do not want to buy a ticket on the Titanic, especially when the crew (including the Captain!) are all robotic!
Cramer is right that there is a lot of fear out there. even on cnbc most dont believe in the bull case except kudlow and cramer. joe kernan let it slip he was mostly out of stocks.
Cramer is my contrarian indicator.
You and I both know that Cramer is eventually going to be cut in programming when the market takes that nose dive this year.
Why are you so certain the market will dive? Could you be wrong?
Silver is on the move - lower again. Looks like the CFTC decision is again good for the shorts - either that or its a death dive followed by $600 silver. Watch out below....
Get out of silver now! Its a top I tell ya!
So tell us some real facts why we should do so and we will consider your statement. Else shut the fuck up.
Buy high and sell higher...,
and how is this different from every real estate flack in the world?
I just this morning took more profits in SLV and bought GLL. I still have some position in SLV, but am mostly cash. I'm thinking there is more upside to the DXY tomorrow. I'm waiting for better buying opportunities in trading GLD and SLV long. Until we see a trend reversal, I'm sticking with GLL for tomorrow and very short term.
I really want Blythe to smack silver down to unconscionable levels so that I can buy in and make a tidy profit on the rebound. Silver often seems to over-correct relative to gold.
Cramer has already penned his Magnum Opus. Veritable classic farce; on par with "Tartuffe," in terms of sheer comedy:
http://www.thestreet.com/story/891820/the-winners-of-the-new-world.html
Please remind me again why Cramer is not in jail for market manipulation per his YouTube video?
Rule-of-law == switched-"off"
because no one with any intelligence listens to this fool and all who do deserve what they get.
Obviously Phil from Phil's World had nothing new to add this week so decided to take the easy way out and bash Cramer. It's the ZH equivalent of making a holocaust movie in Hollywood given the obsession each have with the respective topics..
25 words or less version - market higher, inflation, Bernanke, Cramer is an idiot, the market may go up or down. The End.
YAWN
because no one with any intelligence listens to this fool and all who do deserve what they get. Obviously Phil from Phil's World had nothing new to add this week so decided to take the easy way out and bash Cramer. It's the ZH equivalent of making a holocaust movie in Hollywood given the obsession each have with the respective topics.. 25 words or less version - market higher, inflation, Bernanke, Cramer is an idiot, the market may go up or down. The End. YAWN
Sadly idiots love Cramer's crap.
I just received delivery of my "Cramer Sure Pick" home gamers kit.
It was bigger than I expected, but it contained 6 folding chairs to play musical chairs with Ben and a dart board, but no darts.
Wonder if I can get my (fiat) money back.
well, it would all make sense -- Cramer's version -- if there were actually a rally going on. but i trade individual stocks....and there are no buyers -- 9:30 to about 10:15 theres some activity, then....
its like watching paint dry until 3 or so (gets later every day).....and then there's selling into the close on particularly ridiculously pumped stocks, like the insolvent BAC which is about to issue another 7 or 8billion shares.
so....when a rally starts, i'll think about buying right now? I have sleepy days and short at three.
where do you get this artistic talent from? well written, basic cents and tech genious. I have noticed that about kramer also and more. are there any stock filters for the yield indicators?
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