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The Thundering Herd Of Wall Street Lemmings Begins To Move: NFP Forecast Cuts Galore

Tyler Durden's picture




 

And so the thunderous herd of highly overpaid and always wildly inaccurate Wall Street lemmings better known as "economists" starts moving. Yesterday it was that paragon of the 0.000 batting average Joe LaVorgna who cut his NFP forecast from 300,000 to 225,000 (a number we expect will be cut to about 155,000 today, or indicative that little Joey was off by about 100% as usual), and today Morgan Stanley has already fired the reactionary salvo, trimming its NFP forecast for this Friday's number from 175,000, accompanied by Credit Suisse which cuts from 185,000 to 120,000. And these lemmings are paid 7 digit salaries why again? So far the most resilient is Goldman's Jan Hatzius, who just threw up all over the ADP number, but has so far refused to cut his NFP prediction of 150,000. We give him at most 48 hours before he does following today's upcoming abysmal CPI number.

From Goldman:

ADP employment +38k in May, vs. median forecast +175k.

MAIN POINTS:

1. The ADP forecast of private employment growth in May was +38k, much lower than expected. The ADP report combines publicly available information (jobless claims and past payroll growth) with proprietary data on employee headcounts to forecast the official BLS estimate of private payroll growth. Although the ADP report has a mixed track record for predicting changes in private payrolls, the size of the surprise this month was quite large, and therefore suggests downside risk to consensus payroll forecasts.

2. Weakness in the report was broad-based. Manufacturing employment fell by -9k after increasing by 20k in April. We believe this reversal likely reflects supply chain disruptions in the auto sector. However, employment growth also weakened in other areas. For example, service-providing firms added just 48k jobs, down from 141k in April. Employment growth was also softer across all firm sizes. We therefore see the report as evidence of a slowing in employment trends.

3. At this time, we are making no changes to our payroll forecast of +150k. The ISM report later this morning and jobless claims tomorrow may offer additional information into the source of recent weakness.

 

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Wed, 06/01/2011 - 09:02 | 1328095 scratch_and_sniff
scratch_and_sniff's picture

If they cut it anymore i'm raising my own, just to be on the safe side.

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 09:05 | 1328096 LRC Fan
LRC Fan's picture

This is all so bullish.  CNBC is already talking QE3. 

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 09:03 | 1328101 Land of the Ris...
Land of the Rising Sun's picture

Gotta keep things running. Lemmings fall longer if they climb first. More lemmings, more lemmings!!!

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 09:05 | 1328108 BlackholeDivestment
BlackholeDivestment's picture

...yep, you saw Lies Man 2.

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 10:18 | 1328383 oh_bama
oh_bama's picture

What are you talking about?!

  • The economy is too strong to justify and more QEs!!
  • DEFLATION is too big a threat so CNBC CLOWNs have to talk about QEs all the time!!
  • PAYROLL DATA IS WEAK DUE TO JAPAN AND DRY WEATHER IN CHINA AND FRANCE!!
Wed, 06/01/2011 - 09:05 | 1328097 Land of the Ris...
Land of the Rising Sun's picture

You guys are on the edge. Tipping my hat, Tyler!

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 09:32 | 1328174 margaris
margaris's picture

Coolest depiction of GOD ever!

 

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 09:09 | 1328102 ??
??'s picture

Rosie coming up sometime between 9 and 10am

 

http://www.bloomberg.com/radio/

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 09:04 | 1328103 Iriestx
Iriestx's picture

BTFD.

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 09:08 | 1328105 Cdad
Cdad's picture

And these lemmings are paid 7 digits salaries why again?

 Why?  Because their "expectations" are the key to stock movement.  Understanding their misguided expectations is the only way to properly value a stock...you know, for an hour or two.  It is very hard to find people with such a narrowly developed skill set.  Normal people cannot engage in this kind of folly...I mean work.


Wed, 06/01/2011 - 09:20 | 1328134 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Got to pay these clowns who bat 0.00 quite well to keep a straight face and serious looking when interviewed by some dingbat financial reporter. 

All of them know OBVIOUSLY there are no jobs out there unless youre a pervert and want to sign up with TSA!

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 09:19 | 1328143 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

They are paid 7 figures because they are the official keepers of the public (financial) myth.

Their compensation is not based upon old time notion of value received for value given. The game today is "buffalo the investing public" and the keepers of the public (financial) myth keep Jane and Joe putting 4-10% of their bi-weekly gross pouring into their 401(k)..........which means the stock and bond market.

The 'economists' are essentially public rainmakers and well paid con men.

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 09:05 | 1328109 FOC 1183
FOC 1183's picture

little Joey will be off by more than 100%.  but still likely to collect a nice bonus

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 09:06 | 1328112 morph
morph's picture

Rats

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 09:27 | 1328169 DavidC
DavidC's picture

Ah, there's one I haven't heard in a while. Succinct and to the point.

DavidC

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 09:08 | 1328115 LRC Fan
LRC Fan's picture

These economists are fucking useless lackeys of the state.  It reminds me of the local weatherman, except the weatherman doesn't cause trillions of dollars of money to move one way or another. 

It would be like your weatherman comes on at 7am and forecasts 5 straight days of sunny weather, then at noon (after heavy rain all morning) comes on and "revises" his forecast to rainy for today but still sunny the rest of the week, rinse and repeat every day until finally it is sunny and he collects a bonus check. 

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 09:24 | 1328159 luciusfargo
luciusfargo's picture

As the joke says... Why do economists make predictions? So the weatherman has someone to laugh at. 

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 09:16 | 1328118 Widowmaker
Widowmaker's picture

There is a correlation between hopium and changatanium with those at the top .1% of the earnings scale.

I expect record bonuses for their bullshit spew straight out of grandma and grandpa's social security.   In other words, 'business' as usual.

The real question is why do these ass-clowns still have any front teeth, or a face recognizable?

Disclaimer:  Long fraud street facial reconstruction.

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 09:13 | 1328119 lizzy36
lizzy36's picture

Remember a year ago when Biden promised 250k-500k a month of job growth was just around the corner?

Remember a year ago when Geithner welcomed the recovery?

Remember 4 months ago when Geithner said the US and world economy was strong enough to handle $100 oil?

BLAH, BLAH, BLAH.

The only thing we all remember is Bernanke's Jackson Hole speech. Wonder what the 2.0 version will look like.

ps- can anyone remember the last time Geithner said anything that wasn't 50%spin, 40% outright lie and 10% hope and change?

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 09:29 | 1328177 lieutenantjohnchard
lieutenantjohnchard's picture

some of us do remember.

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 10:46 | 1328553 Bwahaha WAGFDSMB
Bwahaha WAGFDSMB's picture

I think the last thing Geithner said not fitting your description was something about catastrophic economic consequences of default.  Hmm, on second thought that probably counts as spin.

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 09:10 | 1328121 Anaxagoras
Anaxagoras's picture

Not to worry, BLS will print +250K for May, thanks to its secret job-creating Birth-Death model and its ability to "disappear" another half-million or so unemployed into "marginal attachment."

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 12:11 | 1329097 SRV - ES339
SRV - ES339's picture

Not this week Anax, we need QE2 and a new debt ceiling... time for some bad news!

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 09:11 | 1328124 2DollarBill
2DollarBill's picture

7 digit salaries + bonuses to piss in the wind...where do I sign up?

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 09:11 | 1328125 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

There's no crying in baseball.

Stock markets are the greatest legal Ponzi Scheme the financial charlatans of the world have ever invented.

Being officially connected to the Wall Street Inner Sanctum is literally possessing a license to steal.

Equity markets were crazy-criminal up until the time Glass-Steagall was enacted, enjoyed a relatively stable and RELATIVELY fraudlite period from about that time until the mid 1990s (Gramm-Leach-Bliley was passed on November 2, 1999), at which time repeal of regulations and the stripping away of real financial oversight allowed both the magnitude of theft via criminal activity (some sanctioned by rewriting of laws and regulations, much of it not but ignored anyways) soared and the interval between the rinse and wash cycles shortened considerably.

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 09:18 | 1328141 cosmictrainwreck
cosmictrainwreck's picture

excellent summary

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 09:16 | 1328128 anony
anony's picture

We must, however odious it might be, give credit where it's due.

There are a several groups of people, nearly ALL connected at the hip in the Financial Services 'industry', that mave managed something we lesser mortals have not:  Gotten a very lucrative career, with fantastically high pay, benefits and bonuses Not to mention the unmentionable----super model girlfriends for the asking, condos and mcMansions all over the world, private G7 transportation, limos, power that makes Niagara look like a rill----- and all kinds of perks and favors-----for being utterly wrong. 

Career mistakes with an impact that has ruined hundreds of millions, billions of people, haven't affected a single swindler in the Financial Services sector.

If I had to do it all over again, I would choose the Federal government, and financial services (as a former CPA, I was on a parallel track but never saw the potential).

And I think I have a just larcenous enough heart to fluff off the guilt of being so richly rewarded for all my errors.

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 09:20 | 1328136 equity_momo
equity_momo's picture

One of the greatest scams of the modern era was to grant PHDs to economists. Doctors my ass.

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 09:18 | 1328139 rsnoble
rsnoble's picture

Can't we just build more mcdonald's?  And we could make it mandatory to give employees that work fulltime 2 free meals a day.  That creates jobs and takes care of the food problem.  We won't discuss health issues.

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 09:24 | 1328147 PaperBear
PaperBear's picture

"mixed track record" ADP 80% miss, does it mean that Friday's NFP will be a 99% miss ?

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 09:22 | 1328152 LRC Fan
LRC Fan's picture

It probably will come out "better than expectations" and the Dow will gap up 150 and close up 100. 

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 09:21 | 1328149 LRC Fan
LRC Fan's picture

Why is crude spiking? 

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 09:25 | 1328151 Translational Lift
Translational Lift's picture

What a neat trick.....Just lower the bar and POOF....easy to make a good number!!

sic

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 09:25 | 1328160 DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

If the 'plan' is to produce a stock market correction so some form of QE3 is 'regretfully required' they have many months of BLS upside bias that can suddenly become downside bias. If so, do they start early (this week) or wait until the slide is well developed in July? So may scenarios to ponder, what fun!

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 09:31 | 1328181 Cone of Uncertainty
Cone of Uncertainty's picture

Brith Deat bitches, the ultimate plug number.

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 09:28 | 1328162 MiningJunkie
MiningJunkie's picture

Bad news is actually "good news" so watch for massive spigot-opening pumpage of another 3 trillion FRN's into the "system" within days...

Gold will take out $1600 by June 15th...

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 09:25 | 1328164 Cone of Uncertainty
Cone of Uncertainty's picture

Bernanke is fucking brilliant, thanks to his policies, no matter what the economic data, the stock market goes higher.

It's like a fucking perpetual beat off machine, that just jacks asset prices up no matter what.

And what a fucking hilarious morning meeting at my firm today, watching the behind the curve guys try to dissect and apply this data point to their to their totally ass backwards investment outlooks.

Jesus man, for those analysts and PM's that have stuck to fundamentals throughout this QEx saga, all I can say is--you are in the wrong line of work.

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 09:31 | 1328165 Mercury
Mercury's picture

 And so the thunderous herd of highly overpaid and always wildly inaccurate Wall Street lemmings better known as "economists" starts moving.

Yeah but as Buffett once said, no individual lemming ever suffered from bad press...

Although that was before ZH ;)

 

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 09:26 | 1328166 oogs66
oogs66's picture

why do animated cartoons need to hire famous actors/actresses to do voices? 

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 09:30 | 1328168 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

The old trick is new again.

If the economy sucks and even the official and heavily massaged data shows it getting suckier, just STFD!!! (sink the f*cking dollar).

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 09:53 | 1328271 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Theyre getting more annoying than the bully kid on your block saying every day hes goin to kick your ass but never does anything. They want the markets UP? Ok, but not TOO far up that will spook the 401K Bathrobe Brigades, cant go DOWN too much either that will spook em....creep slightly higher until the 'go' signal is given to pull the rug out and seize all pensions and 401K's so quick it leaves everyones head spinning.

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 09:27 | 1328171 Jayda1850
Jayda1850's picture

waiting for the ISM report to bomb, NFP estimates will all drop to 100,000. These forecasters have been so wildly off these past couple week, they have to try to cover their asses just to be able to show a modicum of relevance.

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 09:32 | 1328178 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

We're slumping into the long hot summer. We'll be in a slump for a long, long time. Forget home runs and RBIs, we're lucky to hit a single. But we strike out more than we get on. And that shortstop has a killer arm. 

These guys and gals in charge, and these "brains" on WS, there's not A ONE that has advanced any solutions, any remedies to change our losing streak!

And that may be because they don't even see it as a losing streak at all.

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 09:46 | 1328245 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Always been a planned controlled demolition. These people knew it wasnt going to get any better from the first mention of TARP and TALF, and that was the start of the Greatest Transfer of Wealth operation in history.

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 09:39 | 1328207 Use of Weapons
Use of Weapons's picture

+100 irony for Tyler.

Explanation:

It all started when the nature documentary 'White Wilderness' was filmed in 1958 in the arctic wilds of Alberta, Canada. It was a massive undertaking that took 3 years. No one has yet to figure out why - and Disney never explained - why they got it in their heads to film a "real lemming migration" complete with rare, never-before-seen footage of the critters drowning themselves in the sea. This was never-before-seen because lemmings don't do this. Population explosions sometimes happen and lemmings do migrate and maybe a few will accidentally fall off a cliff or tumble down some rocks and fall in a stream or something and drown. Sucks to be them, then, but it's not a habit they all get into as some wise form of population control. You could just as easily say ants migrate and commit suicide by throwing themselves off curbs and drowning themselves in puddles. Apparently The Disney Documentary Braintrust neglected, in researching their Wildlife documentary, to find any actual desire to document the wildlife accurately. Not to fear! The head photographer and crew decided to take the liberty of bullshitting. They paid Inuit kids 25 cents for every lemming they brought in and they got a few dozen.

They put the critters on a huge, snow-covered "Lazy Susan" turntable and spun it, then filmed from various angles as the critters ran, fell and slid into each other. This pretty much made it look like a "migration" sequence showing a bunch of spinning, running, sliding lemmings with snow flying all over. Voila! Lemming migration! Afterwards, instead of just letting the things go with a few $ and some Mickey Mouse ears, then they were all taken to where there was a cliff overlooking a river and herded over the edge, down into the water, where they drowned. For real. For no reason except to be filmed. Cut and Wrap! Disney got his footage and the myth of the Lemming Hurling Off Cliffs To Commit Suicide was born.

 

http://www.anomalies-unlimited.com/Disney/Lemmings.html

http://www.snopes.com/disney/films/lemmings.asp

 

Never let it be said that your reality is not manufactured or that the MSM's three stooges act isn't scripted.

And never forget what Walt really stood for.

http://www.atissuejournal.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/08/disneyorgchart1...

 

And yes, that does say 'morgue'. Apparently slang for a process.

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 12:16 | 1329143 Reptil
Reptil's picture

JUMP!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R62zcvQl4Nc

I love that video. Don't know why.

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 19:28 | 1330766 Use of Weapons
Use of Weapons's picture

Obvious answer is obvious.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mEnrJ6m1f0c

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 09:42 | 1328241 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

More bad news shucked off by the tape.

Market leaders AAPL, GOOG, PCLN all green today.

Investor's Business Daily issued "confirmed rally" buy signal yesterday.

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 09:47 | 1328249 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

MomoFader trying to live on the shoulders of others again.

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 09:55 | 1328280 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

NVLS taking off big today.  Chip stocks are leading again.

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 09:54 | 1328289 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

XRT and IYR down a puny 35 cents today.

No urgency to sell.

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 10:04 | 1328323 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

Abby Joseph Cohen is very bullish on equity markets, not just in the U.S., but Burma (aka Myanmar) and North Korea as well, with or without further QE or QE-like Fed Monetary Stimulus (since the organic economy is so robust).

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 10:26 | 1328456 tao400
tao400's picture

she is always bullish. That's why she got demoted a few years back.

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 10:15 | 1328361 huggy_in_london
huggy_in_london's picture

... and goldman just lowered theirs to 100k !  right on cue....

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