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Tim Backshall On Europe: "Default Now Or Default Later" As EuroStat Complains That Greece Is Still Withholding Critical Data

Tyler Durden's picture





 

There is one major problem with putting houses of card back together - they tend to fall...over and over. And while abundant liquidity in May and June served as an artificial prop to return European core and PIIGS spreads to previous levels merely as mean reversion algos took holds, the second time around won't be as lucky. CDR's Tim Backshall was on the Strategy Session today, discussing the key trends in sovereign products over the past few months, noting the declining liquidity in both sovereign cash and derivative exposure (we will refresh on the DTCC sovereign data later after its weekly Tuesday update). Yet the most interesting observation by Backshall is the declining halflife of risk-on episodes, which much like the SNB's (now declining) interventions, are having less of an impact on the market, as ever worsening fundamentals can only be swept under the carpet for so long before they really start stinking up the place, and indeed, as Tim points out at 5:30 into the interview, even the IMF now realizes that soon the eventual second domino will fall, and it is better the be prepared (via the previously discussed infinitely expanded credit line), than to have to scramble in the last minute as was necessary in May. In other words, the storm clouds are gathering and only fools will invest in risk asset without getting some additional clarity on what is happening in Europe. The bottom line as Backshall asks is: "do they default now or default later." And that pretty much sums it up. Buy stocks at your own peril.

Incidentally all this is happening as we read in an exclusive Bloomberg piece that "four months after the 110 billion-
euro ($140 billion) bailout for Greece, the nation still hasn’t
disclosed the full details of secret financial transactions it
used to conceal debt" and that EuroStat still has not received the required disclosure about just how fake (or real) the Greek debt situation truly is. When one steps back and ponders just how bad (and unknown) the situation in Europe is, and that stocks are unchanged for the year, one must conclude, as Dylan Grice does every week, that the lunatics have truly taken over the asylum.

 

 


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Tue, 09/07/2010 - 20:03 | Link to Comment masterinchancery
masterinchancery's picture

Yep. And what the IMF and Bernanke don't get is that it is way better for Greece etc. to default now before a lot more sucker money gets expended, which just amplifies the effect of the inevitable collapse.

Tue, 09/07/2010 - 20:35 | Link to Comment deadparrot
deadparrot's picture

Oh, they get it. Think like a bureaucrat. They can either kick the can down the road and waste more taxpayers money for a while longer, or let taxpayers keep their money and let the house of cards fall. In the first scenario, they keep their jobs. In the second, they don't. No-brainer.

Tue, 09/07/2010 - 22:06 | Link to Comment Yits and the Yimrum
Yits and the Yimrum's picture

the squids gas pedal is the credit derivative markets, which drives volatility, which drives profitable trading (for those in the know)

on the other hand, you have the productive sector of the western economy which is under siege by the commodity/credit/capital volatility

the only trade for the non-insiders is tangibles and getting ready for Mad-Max survival memes, which is a lot better than being a card carrying member of the Jim Jones/CNBC/Chamber of Commerce American dream cult

Tue, 09/07/2010 - 21:37 | Link to Comment Getagrip
Getagrip's picture

I say we all default together. You know...all for one and one for all...

Tue, 09/07/2010 - 23:41 | Link to Comment doolittlegeorge
doolittlegeorge's picture

now you're thinkin' like a REAL Fed Chairman.  Always explore ALL the options...

Tue, 09/07/2010 - 20:09 | Link to Comment traderjoe
traderjoe's picture

Dominoes Bitchez!

Tue, 09/07/2010 - 20:24 | Link to Comment bugs_
bugs_'s picture

Yes only Greece fudged their numbers.

Tue, 09/07/2010 - 20:15 | Link to Comment Phat Stax
Phat Stax's picture

"...hat tip to Zero Hedge.... "  nice!

Wed, 09/08/2010 - 07:00 | Link to Comment MsCreant
MsCreant's picture

Like V for Vendetta...

Tue, 09/07/2010 - 20:19 | Link to Comment dark pools of soros
dark pools of soros's picture

so when is the western debt jubilee??  China wants to work for peanuts.. so they dont really have a need for a money surplus anyway

 

someone has to be the serfs..   reset the debt and bring back the ghost of Reagan

Tue, 09/07/2010 - 20:25 | Link to Comment PolishHammer
PolishHammer's picture

Trichet on Bloomberg said the banks are in fine shape

Tue, 09/07/2010 - 20:34 | Link to Comment Goldenballs
Goldenballs's picture

Looks like a nice two fingered gesture from Greece.Well done.

Tue, 09/07/2010 - 20:40 | Link to Comment americanspirit
americanspirit's picture

Thumbs up from Greece ( not what the gesture means in the US - check it out).

Tue, 09/07/2010 - 20:47 | Link to Comment 10044
10044's picture

he did say zero hedge didn't he?? did you see how frustrated faber got as soon as he said zero hedge?!

zero hedge bitchez

Tue, 09/07/2010 - 20:56 | Link to Comment VK
VK's picture

He did, he did! Hat tip to Tyler! Stick it to CNBS.

Tue, 09/07/2010 - 20:57 | Link to Comment bugs_
bugs_'s picture

zero hedge bitchez

Tue, 09/07/2010 - 21:23 | Link to Comment Rick64
Rick64's picture

Getting recognition from CNBC's guests. Nice.

Wed, 09/08/2010 - 01:06 | Link to Comment vs18
vs18's picture

Tim Backshall isn't just a guest, he's also credittrader on twitter and I think supplies Tyler with his Bloomberg screen shots.

 

His contributions since Zerohedge's inception has been the "Daily Credit Summary", which is probably one of the most underappreciated and underrated contributions that ZH has ever given to the masses. But excuse me ... back to "GOLD BITCHEZ!!111".

 

 

Wed, 09/08/2010 - 06:01 | Link to Comment Rick64
Rick64's picture

Wasn't aware of that thanks for the info.

Wed, 09/08/2010 - 03:34 | Link to Comment Moonrajah
Moonrajah's picture

Does it mean that they won't be guests any longer at CNBC?

Tue, 09/07/2010 - 21:05 | Link to Comment lynnybee
lynnybee's picture

Good, say it !   SAY IT LOUD ~~~~~ ZEROHEDGE !!!

Tue, 09/07/2010 - 21:37 | Link to Comment Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

Let's do the bank stress test all over. Sure we can manipulate the bell curve again.

On a side note.

Wed Jun 16, 2010 7:59pm EDT

(Reuters) - Under intense pressure from President Barack Obama, BP Plc agreed on Wednesday to set up a $20 billion fund for damage claims from its huge Gulf of Mexico oil spill and suspended dividend payments to its shareholders.

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSN1416392020100616

Obama is in crisis mode.

Tue Sep 7, 2:12 pm ET

The U.S. National Institutes of Health said on Tuesday it would use $10 million from BP to start a multiyear study to look at the potential health effects from the oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico.

The NIH has already designated another $10 million to begin the study, which will look at the health effects on clean-up workers from oil and dispersants, including respiratory, neurobehavioral, carcinogenic, and immune conditions.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20100907/us_nm/us_oil_spill_health

20b-10m = nineteen billion nine hundred ninety million

Soon, the US administration parasites will ask for more monies. New job creation is being financed on taxpayer bill.

Keeping up status quo

Joseph Tainter; The Collapse of complex Civilisations

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GzuviYRse3E

Wed, 09/08/2010 - 00:09 | Link to Comment MsCreant
MsCreant's picture

20 billion dollars of stim on the wall,

20 billion dollars of stim...

Take 10 mil down and pass it around,

19 bil, 990 mil on the wall.

19 bil, 990 mil dollars of stim on the wall, 

19 bil, 990 mil dollars of stim...

 

Hiccup! Hiccup!

I feel sdrunk already. Bloated.

Tue, 09/07/2010 - 21:57 | Link to Comment cjbosk
cjbosk's picture

Greece, Portugal, Spain, then....Japan!

Zero Hedge Bitchez! 

Did I get that right?

Tue, 09/07/2010 - 22:30 | Link to Comment NOTW777
NOTW777's picture

faber - what a squirrel.  just when the guy gets to the crux after mentioning ZH, faber quickly ushers him out.  more time for mindless babbble

Tue, 09/07/2010 - 23:54 | Link to Comment doolittlegeorge
doolittlegeorge's picture

so you mean to say "countries are even bigger black holes than banks"?  of course.  i know what my risk is with a bank because i can close it down.  that's especially true now that the economy has been obliterated, no? "countries" on the other hand have, well....."things."  Read Reinhart and Rogoff and you'll understand.  NOBODY knows.  You might ask then "what the hell are they doing buying our debt, then!"  well--they don't call it RINGING THE BELL for nothing on the NYSE.  The ability to engage in what ZH'ers engage in is actually quite unique and indeed "uniquely American."  In other words, "these folks aren't just angry--they're surprisingly well informed about it as well."  there can be no greater "market support"--now if i could only get you all to admit "bulls and bears make money"!

Wed, 09/08/2010 - 04:52 | Link to Comment Pondmaster
Pondmaster's picture

Bulls and Bears make money !!

Nothing has changed , stocks still go up and down , form consolidations , hit bottoms and rise on value . Become grossly overvalued and sell off . ad infinum . Enjoy . Continue to continue .

Wed, 09/08/2010 - 01:02 | Link to Comment NERVEAGENTVX
NERVEAGENTVX's picture

Very proud to be a ZH'r when I hear us being referenced in the MSM, especially CNBS! Cracks in the facade anyone? Talk about being "ahead of the curve".

Wed, 09/08/2010 - 03:16 | Link to Comment doggings
doggings's picture

:) Faber definitely grimaced when Backshall said "hat tip to Tyler at Zero Hedge for signalling that the IMF have opened this limitless borrowing capacity.."

funny.

penetration bitchez, whether you like it or not.

Wed, 09/08/2010 - 03:57 | Link to Comment Chuck Mentzel
Chuck Mentzel's picture

It's amazing to see ZeroHedge playing the game started by TPTB using WSJ.

What happened in the economy that would warrant defaults right now? I tell you what, nothing, but apparently the US cannot do anything to get itself out of the present predicament, so it's time to put the euro collapse theme on again and play another game of who-s-gonna-default-first-in-Europe.

You guys want fireworks for some reason. If you can't solve your problems, at least create fireworks somewhere else. Careful with the matches, you might get burnt.

There are as many arguments for European countries to default as there are for USA to default.

Wed, 09/08/2010 - 08:44 | Link to Comment stollcri
stollcri's picture

Drop your nationalism (or regionalism) and open your eyes, almost every nation is having financial problems. Below are a handful of articles published recently that would suggest that Europe is currently having financial troubles.

Many nations can rightfully blame the US for their economic problems, but probably not too many European ones. The fact is that the European Union is more likely to fall apart than the United States, and if that happened there would be a great fear of complete breakdown in the global capitalist system(s). We are all in this together, but I would expect that in the event of a failure the populations' anger will be directed away from the true cause and into nationalistic fervor [like yours].

 

 

 

Wed, 09/08/2010 - 10:06 | Link to Comment Chuck Mentzel
Chuck Mentzel's picture

I'm not questioning the content of the WSJ story, I'm questioning their motive. We already know Europe has huge problems, we already know the stress tests were window dressing, like all stress tests are... including those in the US. But I'm asking what is really the big difference between the situation in Europe and that in the US? All of a sudden, nothing macro happens in Europe and this story gets pushed writ large in the WSJ and generates cheerful waves in other MSM. It really leaves a certain stink around it... And GS is saying now you should drop the euro... Come on, we've seen this episode played before.A Wall Street gazette pushes a story on the depraved banking system in Europe (as compared to the US one), then Wall Street starts selling the gloomy picture, then... Any minute now a rating agency should show up with their update. Etc. We're getting a rerun for some reason and that is what I'm trying to find out.

The first time was because EU and the BRICs initiated talks on making a transition away from the dollar as reserve note, which put some in the US in a panic mode strong enough to launch an attack on the euro and nip any change in the bud. Now, which one is it? Why does Wall Street need to rehash the Euro collapse scenario, when not much happened lately to warrant such a big change?

What is the new data that shows a Greek default is more likely than a few months ago? I thought they had already secured ECB and IMF loans to cover their back for the next period of time, which includes servicing their debt.

Cui bono?

Thu, 09/09/2010 - 10:03 | Link to Comment MsCreant
MsCreant's picture

I agree. A whole lot feels engineered lately. Probably I am just catching up to the curve here.

Wed, 09/08/2010 - 04:15 | Link to Comment Azannoth
Azannoth's picture

Maybe the Greeks them selves dont know what the numbers are, if their unionized accountants are as competenet as their politicians

Wed, 09/08/2010 - 04:47 | Link to Comment Pondmaster
Pondmaster's picture

Sovereign risk is the only trend in an upturn . 

Besides ,my Dad's ( Benny ) got a bigger printing press than you Dad ! ( The IMF )

So whats the problem here?

Wed, 09/08/2010 - 05:04 | Link to Comment Pondmaster
Pondmaster's picture

Yes , Mr Backshall should get KUDOS . Hey did anyone notice that the tickers for the indices during the clip were all down ( duh) but they were not RED , they were GREEN .!!!!! Whats with this phsyco babble B.S. ?? They got the other charts right, red down . More propaganda from FedMedia LLC . OMG ObaMedia  is also catching up in the ratings . 

Wed, 09/08/2010 - 06:48 | Link to Comment Dismal Scientist
Dismal Scientist's picture

Faber is a douche, Kominsky a nodding head puppet. The ad they run for their show about being 'ahead of the curve' is one of the more risible on the financial porn channel. I for one cannot wait for how they 'deal' with a collapse.

Perhaps it'll be the old 'buy when there's blood on the streets' mantra. Or maybe 'look at the value, the yield versus bonds is off the clock'.

They'll find a way to deny reality.

Wed, 09/08/2010 - 07:59 | Link to Comment BearOfNH
BearOfNH's picture

Kaminsky just loves to hear himself talk. He's all medium and no message.

 

Wed, 09/08/2010 - 10:20 | Link to Comment spartan117
spartan117's picture

Maybe Greece can issue some of those California IOUs.

Thu, 09/09/2010 - 00:31 | Link to Comment Hephasteus
Hephasteus's picture

Aggregate blob of tylers. Do you see how proud we are of you and how much we love you. Do you see?

Tue, 09/28/2010 - 04:02 | Link to Comment Herry12
Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!