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This Time Is Different
"This
time is different". It really, really is. Trust me. It's
true. Those famous 4 words of investing that should have you running the
other way and that should be relegated to the trash bin of investing along with
such phrases as "stocks climb a wall of worry" and the "stock
market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent" are as true
today as any time in the past 10 years.
{click on graphs to view larger image}
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One certainty that I am sure of is there will be a pull back, but I am not paying $104 to thetechnicaltake to tell me what my charts and other toys don't already do. Anyone subscribing to such a service is clearly unfit for trading. MArkets were flat and so are my positions except for a token few.
Oh and BTW this "technical writer" spells like a 3 year old girl in diapers having a period.
Booms are the same, but the busts are different.
1900? Slow stock collapse and commodity deflation.
1929? Rapid stock collapse and commodity deflation.
1966? No stock collapse in real terms, slow inflation.
2000? Extend and pretend for ten years.
Every bust is different.
I just love different busts.
All you "long PM, short equities" boys are going to get destroyed if the Dow collapses from here.
PM's always go down 3x faster than stocks, so watch out.
Amazing how the gold bulls simply don't get it.
If they want higher gold prices, they should be cheering on an economic boom and Dow 14,000.
I note that your gold call last night, that it was going to crash and that the sky was falling, worked for you. I see that you support of your surgical thinking, you have supplied empirical evidence shuch as: the Fed has stopped printing money; Barry has saved the housing market, the auto industries and that the unemployed hordes have been rehired in wealth creating export enterpriises, all backed by capital sourced from Fort Knox.
The Big Rock Candy Mountain has also had its streams replenished with 12 year old, oak flavoured, blended whiskey. I think I can see a field of tulips in front of it that you will be abke to tip toe through to get there.
We're talking different languages here. Although POMOs and Plunge Protection Team keep the casino market floating today, the flip side is the currency Printers keep debasing the FRNs. My position is, when the corruption/musical chairs/casino music stops, the casino folds but those holding real money (Ag Au) will still be able to buy food that they forgot to store or buy passage on the last ship leaving port.
Sure, profits can still be made playing with paper 'something', today, tomorrow, next week. Shorting, Longing, etc. Metals are a different play...currency failure, government default (outright or via inflation), etc.
So I see your Point Of View but PM buyers have a different POV. Some PM holders/buyers, believe the casino will fold tomorrow/next week and we're not into profit next week but surviving the system failure next month or next year.
Myself, I have $200k in the casino, $800k in (discounted) RE, $60k in metals and untold $ in knowledge in carpentry, farming & husbandry.. in prepping, ammo, ...... because I don't know which bet will pay off.
Not all of us at ZH are traders, some of us come from different angles.
Yes, there is linkage between equities & PM's. But, after the initial Dow collapse, the PM's would turn around & act as a currency & hedge once the levered players were forced out. Stocks do not act as an inflation hedge as was demonstrated in Wiemar, Germany & Zimbabwe. Any hyper-inflation would cause profit margins for stocks to collapse.
Equities loose both ways, in high inflation or deflation. Only if the FED can achieve a "Goldilocks" economy can they thrive. Your belief in the FED & Goldilocks will last until it collapses as all fiat monetary systems have in human history. It is NOT different this time....
So, Robo Trader, I take it you believe in Gold -i- locks, yes?
As usual, RobotLemming, you are a blinkered and terminally short-term idiot --- who also happens to be wrong once again.
Please show us where the precious metals followed your beloved DOW and especially the NASDOG into the toilet in 2000-2003 (oops, they ROSE instead!), or where they continued to fall from November 2008 to May of 2009, again unlike equities. Not to mention the strong net increase in the PMs from September of 2007 to September of 2008, while stocks were simultaneously falling.
Of course, the precious metals did fall in September and October of 2008 --- well, their PAPER derivatives did fall anyway, although the REAL article was difficult and expensive to come by at that time. When premiums on silver coins increased to over 50% during the bottom in silver's (paper) price, just how much did REAL silver really fall?
And once again, just to hammer the last nail into the coffin of your pro-equities bullshit, your beloved equities have gone basically NOWHERE in the last ten years --- and fallen over 50% in REAL terms overall --- while gold is up over 400% and silver is up over 600% (approximately 250% and 400%, respectively, in REAL terms) over the same interval. Enough said.
Now please shut the fuck up you meathead stock pimp.
+ 1407.30 + 30.30
Robo never lets the facts get in the way of his Bullshit Bromides.
He knows about as much about the long-term price history of PMs as the average J6P on the street - - which is to say Absolutely Nothing.
The phrase about a market being able to stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent should be amended to "a market can stay manipulated longer than you can stay solvent" with a corollary of "unless you are one of the manipulators."
Get real. This time things are different. The Fed is intervening in markets more than ever before. As for "buying power" that is a meaningless term when confronted with the Fed's giant printing presses.
ZH is as bad as Elliott Wave International.
You'll need to be more specific. However, I do not believe that ZeroHedge, as a website, has made ANY predictions at ANY time, although it has repeated the predictions of a rather large number of others.
Just because "This time it's different" does not apply to EVERY situation, does not mean that "This time it's different" never applies to SOME situations --- sometimes, occasionally, this time 'it" IS in fact different. Basic logic is a heartless bitch.
Here's another idiotic and oft-repeated warning that should be relegated to the trash bin: "When the turn comes the bulls won't be able to get out because the exits will be clogged." Heard it a million times.....never seen it happen without plenty of warning and plenty of time to get out with minor losses at worst.
Yeah after all, that's what the floor traders and dirtman sacks are there for, to provide liquidity.
Game of musical chairs continues as the Chinese remove more seats!
Then isolate China from the whole process.
Or at least make sure they can't remove any more seats.
Like fiddles, musical deck chairs are easily imported.
Add to the drop in buying power: 33 weeks of continous outflows in equities, $9+ TRILLION in debt, and people cashing out IRA's and 401K's to pay the mortgage and health bills.
Add to these the eventual inflation, raise in taxes, capital gains, and confiscatory taxation and capture of any pension or retirement funds people haven't cashed out.
Only the Elites didn't feel the hull of the Titanic gashed open by the iceberg becasue they were on the upper decks, drunk, listening to the band play "and the band played on" and playing musical chairs, whilst flaunting their baubles, their mistresses, or their mistresses baubles.
By definition "this time is different" is immaterial.
The relevant question before the house is whether "it" matters.
"It" always matters to the Knights who say Ni.
This time...fewer people own precious metals than ever.
Nice article
+1
This time...I didn't forget my depends.
This time AAPL will save us...
This time is the same...as the last depression.
Sure it is different! Just look at the debt levels, eh?! Look at the dough the Benjoman has given to the bancheros?! It is DIFFERENT until it DIFERS!
This time is different, until it's not......
(insert Santayana quote)
"Look, my penis grew another inch last night."
turn the ruler over...thats the cm side
;)
Oh (chuckling) this is good, too!
Fucking metric system.
You must be counting from the spleen.
"This time is different". It really, really is. Trust me. It's true. Those famous 4 words of investing that should have you running the other way and that should be relegated to the trash bin of investing along with such phrases as "stocks climb a wall of worry" and the "stock market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent" are as true today as any time in the past 10 years.
This paragraph makes absolutely no sense.
"This time is different" "should be relegated to the trash...along with "stocks climb a wall of worry" and the "stock market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent" are as true today as any time in the past 10 years.
After reading it twice, I came to the same conclusion. If the first paragraph is flawed, it doesn't matter what follows, because the author has not collected his thoughts & presented them correctly. Mr. Lerner, you simply cannot write such articles & expect the public to pay you for your lack of skills no matter how great your "technical take" may be.
Your advertising here with such poor writing reflects directly on you. Please make a concerted effort to improve what you produce. It may net you more subscribers. You might want to contact that person on ZH that offered to do editing for the guest articles. An editor would clean up all your errors quickly.
Good Luck & please try harder next time.
You seem to be stuck on "thinking", and stuck on the idea that others should "think" too.
Stop it - you will only annoy yourself and others.
Don't worry about what the author is trying to say. Simply absorb information.
There's a graph, with this "buying power thingee". It's low. OK. This is another thumb on the multidimensional scale that is "the market". Check. Move on.
Narrative is noise. I'm actually encouraged that so few people bother to craft it any more; this carelessness is indicative of narrative's deprecated status.
I'll take "Failing High School English" for $1000-, Alex.
I didn't realize it until just now that "This time is different" is an anagram of "Look, my penis grew another inch last night."
Oh, this (belly laughing) is good!
If this is such a good indicator, then howcome everytime since November when it goes below the 50% level (low buying power) does the market go up? Oh yes, low volume and HFT up churn...
"coup in Greece." there you go. "this time is different." never had one of those before....
I was watching one of the financial channels (cnnfn, cnbc, whatever) back in 1999. The format was similar to what we see nowadays, a panel of talking heads, and they were discussing the run-up in tech stocks. Profits didn't matter, management experience didn't matter, it was all about growth and momentum. The moderator babe threw out the red meat: "Given the fantastic performance of these stocks, shouldn't every investor have some tech in their portfolio?" Three of the four talking heads agreed, but to this day I remember the comments of the fourth. He said that fundamentals always matter, and people should buy these shares only if they were prepared to lose 90% on their investments.
I pine for the cnnfn days when the channel would actually allow a Roy Blumberg to report that the long, intermediate, or short-term trend was actually down. I think they eventually had him whacked.
Like you, I remember watching the talking heads during the tech bubble until Ron Insana, whom I admired at the time, ask this question of some guest nondescript, "You mean, earnings matter?" I never watched network television again.
I would like to thank whomever it was that brought up AVL last week.
Thank you.
oh please! You don't know????
I do. I do see green shoots.