Time For The Dollar To Pick Up The Leadership Baton? Brown Brothers USD Commentary
BBH's Marc Chandler gives his latest outlook on the FX board. Not surprisingly, and as we pointed out following the CFTC COT data, following a fresh round of record bearish bets on the USD, the Brown Brother's chief FX strategist sees a short-term bottom in USD sentiment (until we get a fresh new low of course), which coupled with a dose of irrational exuberance over how fast Europe has come on the past month, on nothing real but merely more expectations of improvement, could make the EURUSD fall to a $1.3250-$1.3350 range. Of course, this is the worst outcome for the dollar debasing central banks (i.e., all of them currently, due to the implicit G-20 understanding that a temporary bounce in the US stock market in nominal terms will lift all boats). Specifically: "For three days the euro tried to rise convincingly above the $1.3840 area, a technical area we had been monitoring. Provided this is indeed a failure, the euro could fall back into the $1.3250-$1.3350 range in the near-term. Sterling neared $1.62 and appeared also to run out of gas. Yet given the rebound in UK data and the prospects of heightened tensions in the euro zone, sterling can outperform the euro. Sterling may encounter support in front of $1.60, but there appears to be potential toward $1.58." Keep in mind that Citi's Steven Englander proposed a comparable logic recently, claiming that increasingly the only way to moderate surging inflation (check out commodity futures) aside from CME, ICE and other exchange margin hiking gimmicks which work for all of 24 hours, is for a concerted push to raise the dollar. Naturally, by the time a move like that is espoused by Bernanke it will be far too late.
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