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TimMUNIber
Looking at the now standard daily levitation in equities on bad, good, and no news, one may be left with the impression that every asset class is on a tear. Wrong. The chart below shows the 3 year performance in MUB. One word: bidless.
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CNBC and Mike Darda to the rescue ASAP!
It's almost like there is a plan to make things so bad for the states that the Federal Gov has to step in to "save the states from chaos". Otherwise, how would new R's and Tea Party R's be able to explain their votes for the state bailout?
They'll say "we had no choice to avoid the National Guard from rolling on main street".
They'll say, "We're doing this to save all of you".
States will be bailed - it's just all bout the set up now.
Agreed. Especially once Jamie Dimon publicly spoke to the issue. That was the tip off.
I was thinking the same thing.
I will really look bad when the States can't pay the Holy Trinity and the Feds will step in for "everyone's benefit." The Fed may squeal about the additional bonds they'll have to soak up, but they already have done state bailouts via bond guarantees etc
And the reaction from the markets is ..... yawn
There is no market.....only zuul....
classic!
"so they just dont make markets like they used to"
"no they never made markets like this, its like the market is a giant superconductive ponzi scheme designed to attrack middle class wealth!"
pimco is not buying?
This will be the crisis of next week...then back to Europe....
All the buyers are at the zerohedge not responding riots
Cue Robo with JPM chart in 3......2..........1.........
ROFL...it's getting obviously blatent, isn't it? ;-)
Getting?
Maria: Should America buy JPM?
Dimon: [Honk Honk/ rattle rattle] Corporations are American. America is the global leader because that is where the corporations come from! So using Aristilian logic, yes!
Me: But the corporations have no allegence to anyone but themselves. What makes you think we should trust the corporations with our wealth creation?
Dimon: Honk honk rattle rattle?
The only Muni i ever gave a shit about was Scott Muni on Wnew FM. Great voice. He loved The Beatles. RIP great one
Things from England
Got NVDA,BAC,JPM,ARMH ... yet ? :-)
Well said, Luca. +1!
if no one is bidding on muni debt, how can my beloved IL issue 8.75 Billion in bonds to pay 2009's invoices?
Enslave the inhabitants and give away 1 slave for free with every bond one buys?
Cueing the ZH/CNBC Autobots in 3, 2, 1...
Buy the dip is soo 2010. 2011, buy high, sell higher.
Afternoon liftoff! SPY 1,300 next!
Seems to be heading to the 1300 level unabated this afternoon.
For every buyer, there is a seller. May you be the buyer of what I sold today....
That would put it within 19% of ATH's. Would make for some nice 3 day long weekend headlines.
Not only that but Joe Public will look at his/her ever increasing 401k growth and feel much more comfortable about the future. That is the wealth effect. That comfort leads to confidence in making bigger purchases whether for your home or dining out more often. That's what Bernanke hoped would happen and it seems to be spot on.
Everyone I talk to is freaking out about how much everything suddenly costs.
No one gives a shit about their 401k (have you not seen ICI flow of funds?) And you're right Bernanke does appear to be spot on (he is a genocidal maniac) Bernanke being spot on is a bad thing.
Learn about yourself before you go around telling everybody what you think. What is U 6 Harry?
Why will you not respond?
What is U 6??????!!!!?!?!?????????????????????????????????????????!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Learn about yourself before you go around telling everybody what you think. What is U 6 Harry?
Why will you not respond?
What is U 6??????!!!!?!?!?????????????????????????????????????????!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
What is U 6 Harry?????????!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!????
What is U 6? Food stamps?
I would call it THE FRAUD EFFECT...
Only in creatures which can no longer form short-term memories.
Life must be wonderful in Candyland!
Do you think anyone else besides me remembers and knows you once said you trade stocks for a living? Was that a joke or a lie, Harry? How often do you lie? Are you a lie?
Because if you are an experiment, and this goes for ALL of the trolls (you know who you are even if I don't), then you should get fucked. If you are a real person, and you just have no clue what you are writing about, still, get fucked. Just get fucked.
Senior Hendrix,
Harry and some others are attention seekers who didn't get breast fed as babies. They still want someone to validate them...pay attention to me.
As for Harry, word has it he was exposed as a financial blogger who is simply trying to push peoples buttons. There is no reason to respond or get riled by this ilk.
What is is (know your isness). Let Harry's of ZH die of solitude.
Lastly, don't argue with fools or you're likely to become a fool - argue with smart guys and get smarter.
I get the box marked 'agitated' then. It is epic bullshit. This is mot a game. Food riots, unemployment, on and on, and this fucker spews shit from his laptop that sits on his trust fund table. I mean, I know that it is a bunch of spoiled children who do not understand, but what they fuck are they doing?
They are distracting, they corner the conversation, they limit the topic. It is utter bullshit. It distracts from this site. I am for free speech but it is beyond that now. Harry is commiting planned murder and ZH is the accomplice, whether they know it, like it, or not.
Wow. How much did you loose in the futures market ?
I am telling you guys but you do not understand. Nothing matters to me except physical precious metal. I do not care what your metric is.
PMs presently consolidating their gains against fiat, preparing for the next launch against paper under constant devaluation pressures...
Trading equities/bonds for return on capital in this environment is a fool's game, and there's always more than enough of them to go around.
IMHO the only thing that one who has amassed any shred of stored wealth should be concerned with, going forward into this nightmare, is return off capital, but a fool and his wealth are always soon parted...
Hell,
for all we know Harry could be a Fed spook trying to push the next Jared Loughner over the edge, trying to push the mentally instable (most?) of ZH into outrageous statements that allow "pre-emptive action" - just not worth your time.
A bit paranoid but just cause cause you're not paranoid deosnt mean they're not after you.
I still think that Wanker is the latest version of "Eliza"! -- look it up on wikipedia
I love getting fucked. But, Im not troll. Im just wondering, cause I like you mr. hendrix, and so why you want these trolls to reproduce, man? hahaha
Harry said a whole lotta things when he first showed up here -- remember he was doing research, he was a trader, he had a small "shop." Now he sells knick knacks and paddy whacks to the middle class and things are f*ing fantastic. It's best to just ignore his constant blabber.
I can't fight the urge to feed the troll any longer... Wanker, we are closing in on very large levels on the charts... 12,000 DJIA, 1300 S&P & 2800 NAZZ. You better hope this muni crisis picks up steam because w/ Benny and the Jets running out of steam, they need another excuse to re-load.
I guess writing is on the Wall with Timmy out yesterday warning about another "crisis" where the government would have to "step in" again and Dimon warning about Munis. If they don't get the excuse and can't execute another trillion dollar bail out, kiss your f-ing rally goodbye.
$1800, $1360, $28.50, $90.
Four of a kind beats whatever everyone else has on this one. No straigh flush. The four horsemen of the Tupacalypse win. Harry and the trolls have lost all of their chips, but they smile and say, 'Next hand.' There is no next hand. The game is over. Fucking SCOREBOARD, bitchez! Cheeky Bastard seldom posted after he called gold to $900 for a reason. MasterBates (although I think he is still around) at least stopped his weekly barages because he was wrong. Harry has no tact. None! Even MasterBates had a little tact, most of the time. He said he would not come back if gold went over whaterver number it was, and he has stayed away. Harry on the other hand....what will it take to get Harry off this site? U 6 of 40%? Food stamps at 60 million? I mean the dude has to shut the fuck up at some point, why not now.
Indeed sir, you make a good point. (Though I do miss Cheeky... lol)
U-6? Wasn't that a movie about a WWII Nazi submarine? lol
Really MLH, this is the interwebs, nothin' but a Sea of Noise...
Don't let the trolls, morons, crazies and autobots get to you, that's their intention.
Nothin' really matters anymore, 'cause the train is stuck on full speed ahead, there's no brakes left and the golden parachutes are about to be deployed as the Cannonball Express roars into a tunnel that has no exit.
Be prepared to exist in a different world...
I like to think of it as shouting into the void.
Pink Floyd The Wall - Pink Floyd - Comfortably Numb :
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tkJNyQfAprY
+100%
I have to say, it's pretty funny that many of you listen to lunatics posting on this forum about doomsday scenarios and you think people like Robo and I are the crazies???
How many times have I heard since SPX 850 that we were going to crash again or it wouldn't end well? At some point there will be a sell off but to continually listen to wackos who have been consistently wrong rather than those who have been correct is the definition of insanity.
We are going to crash again... it's not a matter of "if" it's WHEN. For you to not see how over-leveraged the system is and to think good times are here again.... God dude, get a clue.
The next crash won't be a market or "tradeable" event. Now that the Gov's (elite) of the world are all in, only their repudiation and collapse from an mighty large inflationary spike or hyperinflation will accompany the change.
But if, when, that is game changer.
So long as current powers remain in place, expect more of the same.
I am sure glad you post here Harry to inject some sanity into the discussion.
A refreshing breath of sanity. Just go on a vacation people. Just pick a spot not polluted by core-exit without food riots and find a beach without 10000 dead fish and crabs on it.
Intel had RECORD earnings. And it's not important if they used enron accounting to achieve them. What's important is that they will crush the soul and resistance of thier competition and get them for cheap.
Everythings fine. There's no tax revolt tax revenues are fine. All it takes is a few examples to fix it. The powers that be are very good at making examples and have never made bad examples. They'll pick high profile movie stars with alot to lose to show you how to comply. It's all taken care off. You're just doomers who want the system to fail out of pure meanness and spite.
lunatics? crazies? wackos? insanity?
you're either with us or you're with the fucking midget :)
SP pushing higher and higher on less and less volume....I rather own a Harrisburg water muni due in 2035...
Looks like Silver Wheaton. Huge selling volume before the weekend.
Down 25% in 4 weeks.
The President's Working Group on Financial Markets have sold their shares of SLW to Carlos Slim. Move along.
SLW is a fantastic company, and will be at a bargain value soon
100% Correct. But for now ...
+1 re SLW.
Yep, shift that money from peripheral EUR sovereigns to Munis once Time does a cover story on "the municipal bond crisis." Then wait for the next "will the Euro survive?" cover and shift back. I love living in a world with a ten-second attention span.
How do you play that ? Tips ...
Once easy money at little to no interest rates was all but guarnateed with QE 2 and since the maket rise with QE lite in Septemeber/Ocotober, who would want to invest in the muni market at little returns. Only cure for this is high interest rates. Otherwise, watch the plunge to depths unbeknown.
looks like my trading account...
$3 trillion muni market on the cusp of record defaults
SPX at 30-month high
Sounds perfectly logical
'Blow off' here we come! Harry, get your camera ready
not a chance bro
I think the blow off will be coupled with the inflationary spike in oil, commodities, ag, etc.
Til that happens, Ben can happily monetize and not more than a few Merican's will know any different.
Me thinks the top will be hit only if / when the Fed policies and current government actions are repudiated by a nation ravaged by stagflation. Seems we have a ways to go and could be China blinks first? Or could be we will be Ben's damaged collateral.
The more the muni's crumble...
Stocks go up even faster.
Especially the likes of cruise lines like RCL, new 52-week highs today.
And don't forget the 1999 screamers like KLAC, NVLS, AMAT, etc.
You forgot to bring your towel.
Don't forget to bring a towel.
Give it a rest. People are dying in riots and starving over this market orgy by the fed and bankers.
Money, not food, not homes not shoes
No Need, just feed the bank canibal animal
I browse to the rubble that used to be a market
Line up to the mind cemetary now
What we don't know keeps contracts alive and movin'
They don't gotta burn the books they just remove 'em
While cash balances fill as quick as the cells
rally round the family
Pocket full of shells
They rally round the family
with a pocket full of shells
BULLS ON PARADE!
BULLS ON PARADE!
Woke last night to the sound of thunder.
How far off I sat and wondered.
Started humming a song from 1962.
Funny how the night moves.
When you just don't seem to have that much to lose.
Strange how the night moves.
Your moms a screamer
The more the muni's crumble...
Stocks go up even faster.
Because the market is EXPECTING another bail out.
Wait until the smoke starts pouring out from China's hood' after a few more rate hikes ....
Most commodities will get monkey hammered with the slowdown talk as the USA is booming. We sold a lot of our problems MBS/CDO's/Debt ect and now we are exporting our inflation. As commodities fall the US companies that sell things on the global marketplace will get a boost from cheaper input cost. Just a small pullback will help .... 5% - 10% because the rate hikes in China help her people earn more spending power but the manufacturing complex gets blowtorched.
China's not going to crumble but you will not see 9% GDP over the next 5 years.
Most commodities will get monkey hammered with the slowdown talk as the USA is booming...
Who the hell are we selling to if at least half of the S&P 500 profit comes from overseas? If Euro-zone goes through austerity and China hits a brick wall, just who are we selling to? And here is a news flash.. commodities aren't going up just because production is booming. They are going up because they act as a STORE OF VALUE. Think about it as every developed nation destroys their currencies.
We sold a lot of our problems MBS/CDO's/Debt...
Really? Who did we sell them too? If memory serves correctly, the Fed took a lot of that slop onto their balance sheet. The "problems", as you so nicely like to put it, haven't gone anywhere. They have moved from one balance sheet to another.
because the rate hikes in China help her people earn more spending power...
Perhaps, but they have to USE it. We have NOT seen the Chinese consumer materialize yet. They are still very s...l...o...w to spend money. It isn't built into their culture and a decade or two of growth isn't going to change that overnight. Hell, they haven't even developed the social safety nets everyone was talking about that was supposed to free up the Chinese wallet and act as the next wave of consumerism.
If I were you I would review your IBD Level 2 notes and see that the S&P 500 is almost as extended now as it was in May 2010 relative to the 200 EMA.
P.S. - RCL looks like a great buy with a P/E of 21...maybe we can use those ships to house all the people soon to be foreclosed upon.
LOL
I don't think riots and governments being thrown down with munis crashing is good.
But stock market keeps soaring. I don't like things.
I wonder what WILL cause the market to reverse ? With Bernake buying , Primary dealer/banks buying, HF robots buying , no individual investors or Mutual funds providing a selling catalyst and no short sellers what will actually sell to cause any pullback. Given the trading environment I can't see any reason for the market to pullback. EVER
A reversal? Somebody trips over the server cord...
Stop caring about equities. Period.
You'll wake up some Monday with a 10+% crash from futures that triggers the breakers in the first 1 minute of trading, and you are locked out.
Next day, same thing. Next day, same thing.
You can be down 30% before you can trade.
There are plenty of rational places to make money that don't involve equities. Iron Ore, Copper and Oil will remain elevated until the limited Oil supply smashes all growth. Then they all fade until economies dare try to grow again, and oil smashes them again.
All this can be reasoned out with marginal Fed power to influence it.
This.
Oh, and this:
Coming to a municipality near you!
me either
-2007
Strategic press release to scare the herd back into bonds if yields start creeping up?
Muni-bonds themselves may not give TPTB reason to light that fire but if there is contagion or political pressure its anyone's guess.
i was hoping for a robot chart showing the 7% drop in zales (after the one he showed it up 35%) to match this one.
alas, i'll have to wait for him to declare jpm the winner in the silver struggle after it moved 10% in their direction after it went 70% against them.
Santelli likes this one but cautions do your homework.
CXA
That just caught a baby bid...
This is just like 2008 in ignoring the news and the under the surface garbage. Everyone knows JPMs earnings are a joke and the munis are in trouble. But to the market it is not happening until it does and to the Fed a muni catastrophe, a when not if, is an ability to push through QE3. Who owns the munis? Follow the $. Probably not banks mostly.
Does anyone else think Fed Gov Tartufo, oh Tarullo is really John Malkovich?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5gmpbsZ9H_w
thought i would warm you peeps up. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5gmpbsZ9H_w
Check out IQI.
Municipals have to pay a whopping....wait for it....3.42% on a 10 year municipal bond. Give me a shout when this gets interesting, or even attractive to purchase.
ETF's are for suckers BTW.
Hey Bernanke... I mean asshole...
The world is crumbling around your equity ramp job.
With MUB down just over 1% and TLT down about 0.5%, gettting another 5-8 bps of widening (trying to figure out the exact duration of this beast). BAB is widening by about the same amout. MCDX is 7 wider on the day. MUS and PML are both down about 2% but were down closer to 4% in earlier panic trading. Sector still under a lot of pressure. Probably almost no liquidity for off the run issuers. How stocks are up on this and the data today is beyond me, though with new and improved EFSF expected to be announced Monday and the certainty that the Fed will have to QE the muni market, stocks are probably smarter than the rest of us....again....still....
parabolic blow off followed by a hyperbolic crash.
the ulimate algebraic win-win....
HYD - High Yield Municipal Bond ETF... now yielding close to 10%
WB7 could you put your formidable skills to work on say Mr. Dimon of JPM.. perhaps along his resemblence of the rodent family? or his ongoing evolution as a troglodyte.
We demand you issue an immediate apology to the Rodent Horde.
Beavers are very conservative, you know.
Who owns most of the munis? Who just got a two year break on their federal income tax rate? Demand is dampened and risk has increased. At what yield does demand pick up given the new risk landscape?
What I hear is that the republicans want the states to go bankrupt (they are trying to write law to allow them to do that) so that they can renegotiate with state unions to cut back or get rid of retirement guarantees and pensions, this is done in order to weaken the democratic politicians and their support from the public unions.
So, where's the downside?
No shit. Gold plated pensions are coming to an end. Plan on it.
I knew there were problems in Muni Bond land but I was not aware that the MUB is now trading at levels not see since early 2009 as depicted by the Bloomberg chart below.
http://bit.ly/dWwzlz
Also one web site is predicting "Municipal Bond Market Crash 2011: Are Dozens Of State And Local Governments About To Default On Their Debts? "
http://bit.ly/gBghs7
Are the talking heads on CNBC misdirecting us away from the serious problems of the state or is the Govt working on a possible solution?
I recall the Ben Bernanke when asked by a member of Congress recently on the Feds possible bailiout of the States his response was that "the Fed does not have that jurisdiction and would not be able to participate in a bailout of the States"
the thing about Smailes is, ya cut the hamstring at the back of the leg. They'll push everything off to the right. They'll give up the game of golf