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Today's Asset Pairs: Dollar-Vol And Bonds-Stocks
Momos still unable to read anything beyond the misleading headline in today's housing numbers (here's Rosie cliff notes for all those challenged with words longer than 3 syllables). Let's give them another few hours.
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I want to puke as I purchase puts again today. Dunno how long it'll be before I drink a bottle of pepto bismol every morning as I do this.
Don't fight the Fed... Welcome to QE
Exactly, still another 500B of money to be printed to buy MBS, most of which will go directly into the markets.
By the time that is smoked, they'll roll up some CMBS purchases.
possibly
good articles; my newest bookmarked finance site ..http://www..
hat tip: finance news & finance opinions
The Fed just bought a record $5.6 billion in agency mortgage securities today.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/fed-buys-record-56-billion-in-agency-de...
Make that $5.6 billion in agency debt, not MBS.
Been buying puts for two weeks now. I guess it's true that the markets actually CAN remain irrational longer than I can remain solvent. S & P up 2%, time for another Glenlivet.
Excellent choice in scotch.
I think that is also my main lesson learned this year. It looks like GS wants to get back all the money I made since March before they let this one go down again...
They are really trying hard to force a final shakedown so their bets on the downside are the only ones left by the time it comes. 76% profit growth in Japan next year? Who in their right mind would believe there could be a driver for that when their economy is almost purely based on discretionary products?
The 18 or 21 year I assume
18. Great value still. Although I may be switching to the 12 yr old if this keeps up.
I say drink your lower end scotch, but hold off on your good stuff. Goldbugs think they will have a great returns on gold, but it won't be as great of a return as a some good bottles of scotch!
Just remember. THe market can stay irrarional alot longer than you can stay solvent. Stop trying to trade against the GOVERNMENT and GOLDMAN SACHS. They have unlimited money and manipulate it against YOU everytime. Either trade on their side, or wait til they switch sides.
Agree.
They won't switch sides though. They'll keep pumping and pumping until the whole thing blows up.
So day trade long, don't hold overnight, and get ready to jump on board when this thing starts to crater.
It also might not be a bad idea to lock in some profits with physical PM's and other tangible goods.
TD, it is a poor assumption the momo's read anything or could care less, unless just to chuckle to themselves how stupid anyone is to believe this ramp is based on anything other than vaporware.
We all know the shitstorm is brewing, well overdue, but the million dollar question is when the levees break. No buses for the poor folk to escape, the hue and cry will be loud and piercing, " Obama doesn't like 401K people!!"
Exactly what do you say?
I posted this under TD's state UE rate thread but it bears repeating. For cycle traders--numerous stock market cycles are lined up for the first week of Sep to be a significant top. NFP/UE come out on the 4th. We may have our rally expiration date close at hand. Since the cycles are from the 4-8th, and Labor Day is the 7th, either NFP explodes us to the upside with a little follow through on Tuesday, the 8th, or the party ends 8:30 am on the 4th. With the new highs today, we have a possible 250+ more Dow in this loco-mo-mo-train.
as a momo i resent this post!
NFP explodes - not going to happen bank on it
I agree wholeheartedly. I'm buying puts galore on the 3rd. I just added that in since the 8th is part of the cycle dates and are to be respected as such.
interesting description of the dangers of short selling but also the benefits of having shorts in the market generally
http://www.minyanville.com/articles/risk-reward-stocks/index/a/24173
and ends with
"When the longs decide to sell in unison, as they surely will, the first tranche of shorts will gladly cover to get out of a bad trade. With the first buyers out of the way, the stock is a good candidate for a mighty fall. But most of the shorts will already have been carried out. The longs, looking to sell, will be reminded of the story of the speculator who keeps pushing a stock higher, then tells his broker to sell.
“To whom, sir?” asks the broker."
So exhausted, the melt-up continues. I don't think I know anyone long this thing (probably a bad thing).
Real buyers of the stock market are currently on the beach. But they’ve got some real problems with relaxation, and ready to send the SELL order any second to realize profits they’ve got since March.
it’s not If but When they’re gonna do that and who’s gonna be the last holding the bag.
keep shorting the stock market.
keep shorting the stock market.
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why? to loose even more money?
better stay away from the trading
They are exposed to liquidity problems the people on this board just don't have. If it takes you more than 5 minutes to enter into a position, congrats, you have a lot more money than me.
Well we can all say we have witnessed the biggest bubble in history on valuation grounds when we talk to each from our cardboard box shelters
http://acrossthecurve.com/?p=8022
the beginning of the collapse
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aHrnUR1Z3n3U
"
States with a drop in unemployment triples in July"CNN Headline; I haven't read details of cause but I am pretty sure there is nothing in there about mass layoffs.
The whole situation reminds me on how USSR government hid facts about Chernobyl and Afghanistan. People were all confident that those issues are minor and will be solved, however such a confidence had a heavy cost and contributed highly into the hellish economic spiral downwards.
Reminds me of the boy & wolf story, in this case when real economic recovery will come, no one will believe and we might have an extra year or two of recession.
The problem I see (and I must be a idiot, cause I am so short) is the prices are so bid up that even if we pullback 20% in the next few months it is a non-event. If we crash 50% or more the game is up and the Fed will back any failures. We are f&cked no matter what happens. Love those opening prices for RUT and NDX.......When was the last reversal in the mkt, from high to low?? I can't remember.
Well, irrational markets or not, this is getting to the point of utter silliness. Shitty fundamentals, still losing 300k jobs a month, real unemployment in the mid teens, collapsing global trade and China shutting off the only valve of growth globally--it doesn't matter.
Unless we correct by close today, this bear is going all into cash, FED auctions next week and whatnot. Shorting is just too painful at this point. A tiny put spread is still in place as well as some gold and commodities, but that's it .
I closed all my longs today, and all the SDS will be the next to go. Being net short in this market has been just suicidal.
Best to all who have the conviction to stick by their guns.
Hey Anon...I' m with you...I closed out all my shorts this morning and am now in all cash. I just cannot keep getting my ass handed to me day in and day out waiting for what should have already happened. My plan now is to take a breather and maybe jump back in short around the Sep 4th timeframe before NFP/UE, as suggested by one of the other users here earlier.
Maybe I should just join the Dark Side and put all my hard-earned, (beaten-down) SDS proceeds into the SSO -- of course, that's when BB will decide we need some fear and push the market down 5%... lots of treasury toilet paper being printed next week. When the big fish are playing, better stay out until I can figure out what the rules are and if they make sense going forward.
The Zerohedgers (who are still short) are capitulating... Are the bearish of the bearish finally giving up? Nobody left to cover?
That's been my thought as well, we might actually be reaching a tipping point in the market if that's the case. That is of course assuming the computers forgoe their control, or start trading the other way (though that would be a lot harder, but they can't make much while the market is just sitting still at the top)
Nah, plenty left on Evil Speculator, Slope of Hope, and Xtrends.
I'm with both of you, all cash until Sept. My ass needs a break from the daily pounding. The S&P moves this week may have caused permanent anus damage, I really should have it checked out, along with my mind.
Yep...see you at the proctologist office...I will be the one sitting on the big ass donut in the waiting room. The problem with capitulating though, is that I think that the correction will be a lighting fast event and I may not be able to get in on it, if I am not already in the positions....You guys concerned about that also?...suggestions?
why you americans are sooo stupid
even on an educated site like this, one still bothers about pelosi
Agree. She is a symptom.
As a fellow bear but someone who hasnt been short since June , may i suggest staying 100% cash without any naked shorts in the market well until the primary trend reasserts itself downwards. there are no prizes for standing in front of steamrollers - allow the market to come to you and then trade in bigger clips when its going your way. being 100% cash is essentially being short anyway. so dont sweat it. patience.
well that max pain scenario certainly didn't work out.....This hint of this move was the strength off the lousy employment data....This is shaping up to be a buy the rumor of recovery leading to a sell the fact the recovery is here.
Where exactly does the Federal Reserve get all this money to purchase all these securities (MBS, agencies, treasuries etc)?
Lots of ink and toilet paper manufacturers working overtime
They have a money tree growing in their back yard.
Are you kidding, who needs ink, toilet paper, or money trees. This is the 21st century! Just type 25,000,000,000,000 at the keyboard and hit Enter! Viola, your done and there's still time for a round of golf.
this is leading up to be a big crash because there won't be any shorters in to slow it down, squeezing it so far from basic fundamentals and hammering the shorts for all they can will just leave a void
The market is pricing in an instant recovery to housing bubble levels with consumers able to access lots of cash and go on a big spending spree.
The consumer confidence figures and jobs numbers say it all but the market is deaf to that, and listens to words that the economy is levelling out from the people that said sub prime was well contained! For goodness sake, what idiots are these? Oh just poor squeezed shorters killed by GS HF prog trading who suck the blood from those that look at the real numbers and analyse reality for what it is
I've got some advice for all you negative doomsayers on ZH waiting for the all elusive market crash (it'll never happen)- if you can't beat em' join em!
Yeah, just like we were at a "new paradigm" in housing. Ftard.
They hold the prices so the shorters that have to close buy from new shorters who think because it has surged and not gone any further think it is safe to short.
Then just before the end GS and the rest give it a little nudge higher and wham, suck blood from all the new shorts and push it higher with all the stops being hit into the close.
How to cause max pain by just holding the prices and then a little buying which can be easily got rid of to the blood sucked dry shorts before close
If you look at the graph of the SPX, the bots trade it in a 25bps range based on (!!!) the intraday RSI -- which is probably not the most idiotic concept I've come across but it is the stupidest I've seen this week. Somebody needs to explain to the programmers the concept of three standard deviations.
Come on, take it easy on the smart guys... I'm by definition (IQ) one of them smug bastards.
My unique problems comes from the fact that my IQ has translated into common sense, and that is getting punished by the merry folks in Washington.
Who gets the cash? Cash for clunkers; so if I bought a F350 heavy duty to haul my posterior to work every day I get a break. Bailouts for banks and automakers -- companies that in a free economy would have failed. The banksters get their tax-payer funded bonuses.
They are rewarding failure and paying for it from the people who were prudent. The FED is transferring wealth from the savers (0% interest rates) to the banksters that own it.
So, in that line of thinking, my common sense tells me things are getting worse. Hence, I am being punished just like the rest of the prudent folks.
I view it as a social tax until we reach a new form of government--Idiocracy, where everybody drives more car than can handle, has more stuff than can store, and lives in a bigger house that can afford.
those become mandatory and they control the pricing of the insurance they can put every bank that is not their
good articles; my newest bookmarked finance site ..http://www..
hat tip: finance news & finance opinions
friend
Most people who play in the trading game and even those that don't realize that what lead to the plummet in the stock markets last year was to much leverage and to much money. To a large degree we have "fixed the problem" by adding more money and liquidity to the system which on an intellectual level is completely insane. But the bottom line is that the banks r long for whatever reason and have convinced enough people that the market is undervalued and the market is going up. So if you are in this to make money why fight it.
This is just amazingly brutal, I feel completely sick. :) Must mean it's almost over.... ALMOST.
what are MOMO's?
SPX HAL9000 look's like he forgot a couple of words to Daisy-Daisy since 11:30. A shiny penny says the Agency POMO misses with the stick save today to thread the bond needle for next week: Close under 1020. Replay of April post OpEx Monday, SPX down 4% to 979. Then go-fever till week of Sept 18.
SPX volume - 3.6b 2:45pm EDT
S and P 100 Index - (OEX)
Call Put Total
21,486 27,120 48,606
S and P 100 Index LEAPS-American
Call Put Total
20 0 20
___________
Operation 1 - RESULTS
Operation Date: 04/23/2009
Operation: Coupon Purchase
Settlement Date: 04/24/2009
Maturity/Call Date Range: 05/31/2012 - 08/15/2013
Total Par Accepted:* 7,000
Total Par Amt Submitted:* 15,990
Operation 2 - RESULTS
Operation Date: 04/21/2009
Operation: Coupon Purchase
Settlement Date: 04/22/2009
Maturity/Call Date Range: 02/29/2016 - 02/15/2019
Total Par Accepted:* 7,000
Total Par Amt Submitted:* 26,807
___________
Tentative Schedule
Operation Date Operation Type1
August 24, 2009 Outright Treasury Coupon Purchase
August 26, 2009 Outright Treasury Coupon Purchase
so do we do