We get two non-core employment indicators today, with both the ADP and the Initial Claims numbers coming out in an hour. Last month ADP for the first time in a while predicted the NFP release with a high degree of confidence, although with the bulk of layoff now concentrated at the government level it will likely not disclose the full picture.
8:15: ADP employment report (June): Larger gain. The consensus forecasts a gain of 70,000 in the ADP measure of private employment growth this month. This estimate is 55,000 below the consensus forecast for the BLS count of private payrolls (+125,000). The difference likely reflects slightly weaker growth in the ADP measure over the last three months. We see upside risk to consensus forecasts for ADP. We are more optimistic on June employment growth overall, and believe the gap between the ADP and BLS measures could narrow.
Median forecast (of 36): +70k; last +38k.
8:30: Jobless claims (Week of July 2): Small decline? Initial jobless claims have stabilized in recent weeks, albeit at a higher level than in late Q1. We agree with the consensus forecast that declines are more likely than increases over the next few weeks.
Median forecast (of 48): 420,000; last: 428,000.
12:30: Kansas City Fed President Thomas Hoenig speaks in Oklahoma.
From GS and ZH