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Today's Economic Data Docket - With All Eyes On Europe, NFP And Consumer Credit In The US
With all eyes on Europe today, where the BOE just announced it is keeping rates at 0.50% as expected, the events in the US are jobless claims and February consumer credit.
8:20: Richmond Fed President Jeffrey Lacker on financial regulation. Mr. Lacker will also hold a media Q&A at 11:00 today.
8:30: Jobless claims (Week of April 2): Edging lower. With an ongoing improvement in activity overall, initial jobless claims should continue to edge lower.
Median forecast (of 44): 385,000; last: 388,000.
c. 9:15: GS Retail Index (March). Our retail analysts are looking for this index of same-store sales to drop sharply to -1.4% yoy from +5.0% last month due to a shift in the timing of Easter (and perhaps negative weather effects). We do not see sings of more fundamental weakness in consumer spending.
11:00: Last POMO of this week: Fed buys $5.5-$7.5 billion in bonds due 04/30/2015 – 09/30/2016. There will be no POMO tomorrow
15:00: Consumer credit (February): Extending recent gains. Consensus forecasts expect that consumer (non-mortgage) credit increased for a fifth consecutive month in February. Recent consumer credit reports have shown a clear divergence in borrowing activity by type of loan. Non-revolving consumer credit – loans for automobiles, appliances, etc – has begun to increase after declining moderately during and immediately after the recession. In contrast, revolving credit – credit card debt and unsecured lines of credit – has remained on a steep decline (except for a brief increase in December). As a share of disposable income, revolving consumer credit has declined to levels last seen in 1994.
Median forecast (of 32): +$4.6bn; last +$5.0bn.
From Goldman and Zero Hedge
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BTFD
The GS Retail Index is a BS number. It will surprise on the upside, but if you look to the numbers of tons moved, it's a totally different story.
Retail sales will be up 7/8% but total volume sales is down 3/4%.
The price increases make up the difference.
good interview yesterday on the central banking scams, gold, silver, and mining shares: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uDkT8_4tnis