Today's Economic Data Docket - All Headlines With Some Claims, Philly Fed and LEIs Thrown Into The Mix

While the entire world is focused on political developments, namely the rescue of the Eurozone, and the extension of America's credit card borrowing limit, there are some economic updates to keep track of in the US, namely initial jobless claims and the July Philadelphia Fed Index. As Goldman observes below, a weaker than expected initial claims number will be lamed on the ongoing Minnesota shutdown, while it appears that as explained yesterday, the surge in M2 has been completely ignored by the economists, and thus expect a massive beat in today's 10am LEI. That said, the only thing that will drive the market once again will be headlines from both sides of the Atlantic.
 
8:30: Jobless claims (Week of July 16): Still tough to read. The weekly initial jobless claims figures will likely be difficult to interpret again this week due to annual plant retooling in the auto sector and related seasonal adjustment issues. US auto production picked up a bit last week as some plants came back on line, consistent with what is expected by the claims seasonal adjustment factors. The best guess is therefore that these seasonal distortions will have a neutral effect on claims this week (they will be a source of upside risk in next week’s claims figures). Separately, the government shutdown in Minnesota reportedly added more than 10k to weekly claims last week. These should drop out of the claims figures in this week’s report.
Consensus:  410,000; Last: 405,000. MAP: 2
 
8:30: Chicago Fed President Charles Evans speaks to reporters.
 
10:00: FHFA House Price Index (May): Small gain? This index—which tracks the purchase price of homes with agency-conforming mortgages—improved a bit in April (+0.8% mom). The consensus expects that it posted a small gain in May as well.
Consensus: +0.1%; Last +0.8%. MAP: 0
 
10:00: Index of leading indicators (June): Components of the leading index were mixed last month, with weaker stock prices and consumer sentiment, but stronger money supply growth and a continued positive signal from the slope of the yield curve.
GS: Flat. Consensus: +0.2%; Last +0.8%. MAP: 0
 
10:00: Philadelphia Fed index (July): Slight improvement? The Philadelphia Fed’s manufacturing survey should improve a tad from its dismal June reading, although the soft Empire State factory survey suggests that improvement will likely be small.
GS: -6.0; Consensus: +2.0; Last -7.7. MAP: 4
 
10:00: Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke testifies on regulatory matters.

11:00: Treasury will announce 3- and 6-month bills, a 52-week bill, along with the 2-, 5-, and 7-year auction details. Sizes are expected to be as follows: A combined $58.0 billion of 3- and 6-month bills, a $24.0 billion 52-week bill, a $35.0 billion 2-year note, a $35.0 billion 5-year note, and a $29.0 billion 7-year note

13:00: Treasury will auction a new $13.0 billion 10-year TIPS to raise all new cash.

From GS, SMRA and ZH

Comments

[mynhair]

'will be lamed on' - good one

[Stoploss]

3.5 point spread already. Pull up Finviz Futures.

[slaughterer]

Watch for the rally at 10:00am on a LEI "beat."  Consensus: +.2%.  Actual: +1.0%

Just saying. 

[somethingelse]

Tell me LEI's tell me sweet little LEI's...

[mayhem_korner]

I'm betting string-pullers will get the BLS to print a to-be-revised, sub 400K on the IJC to reinforce the M2-cooked LEI and enable a feigned rally.

[mayhem_korner]

Whoops...missed it.  IJC print 418k.  Time to buy some more maples.