Analysts expects today's Jobless claims to decline from last week's soon to be upwardly revised 434,000 to 420,000. We believe that there is a risk the number will be worse than expected due to ongoing layoffs in the auto sector as the "Japan" effect refuses to go away. If this does not happen, rain, flooding, drought, snow and UV lamp exposure will be blamed, not necessarily in that order. But not the economy. Never the economy. We also get existing home sales and the Philly Fed index.
8:30: Jobless claims (Week of May 14): Another decline. Last week jobless claims declined from 478k to 434k. In our view, the drop resulted from the reversal of temporary seasonal adjustment bias related to the Easter holiday and school spring breaks. This week we expect another decline as filings related to auto production cuts diminish. These may be partly offset by filings related to flooding in the South. See links below for further details.
Median forecast (of 49): 420,000; last: 434,000.
8:30: New York Fed President William Dudley visits multiple locations. Focus likely to be on regional economy. Scheduled events at 8:30, 10:00, 12:00, and mid-afternoon.
10:00: Existing home sales (April): Small increase. Moderate increases in the pending home sales index in recent months point to a small gain in April existing home sales.
GS: +2.0%; median forecast (of 75): +2.0%; last +3.7%.
10:00: Index of leading indicators (April): Growth in the index of leading economic indicators likely slowed in April due to higher initial jobless claims, a decline in the ISM vender performance index, and a reduced manufacturing workweek.
Median forecast (of 58): +0.1%; last +0.4%.
10:00: Philadelphia Fed business index (May): Partial rebound. We forecast that the steep decline in the Philadelphia Fed index in April partially reversed in May. The Empire State index released on Monday showed a moderate decline, but continued to signal growth in the region’s manufacturing sector.
GS: +22.0; median forecast (of 59): +20.0; last +18.5.
11:00: Another small POMO, today we see the same $1.5 - $2.5 billion in total buybacks as yesterday, however focusing on 08/15/2021-11/15/2027 maturities
13:30: Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher on “Federal Reserve Functions and Economic Update”. Q&A scheduled.
13:40: Chicago Fed President Charles Evans at corporate treasurer conference. Q&A scheduled.
from GS and ZH