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Today's Economic Data Docket - Another 400,000+ Jobless Claims Print, Philly Fed And Existing Homes

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Analysts expects today's Jobless claims to decline from last week's soon to be upwardly revised 434,000 to 420,000. We believe that there is a risk the number will be worse than expected due to ongoing layoffs in the auto sector as the "Japan" effect refuses to go away. If this does not happen, rain, flooding, drought, snow and UV lamp exposure will be blamed, not necessarily in that order. But not the economy. Never the economy. We also get existing home sales and the Philly Fed index.
 
8:30: Jobless claims (Week of May 14): Another decline. Last week jobless claims declined from 478k to 434k. In our view, the drop resulted from the reversal of temporary seasonal adjustment bias related to the Easter holiday and school spring breaks. This week we expect another decline as filings related to auto production cuts diminish. These may be partly offset by filings related to flooding in the South. See links below for further details.
Median forecast (of 49): 420,000; last: 434,000.
 
8:30: New York Fed President William Dudley visits multiple locations. Focus likely to be on regional economy. Scheduled events at 8:30, 10:00, 12:00, and mid-afternoon.
 
10:00: Existing home sales (April): Small increase. Moderate increases in the pending home sales index in recent months point to a small gain in April existing home sales.
GS: +2.0%; median forecast (of 75): +2.0%; last +3.7%.
 
10:00: Index of leading indicators (April): Growth in the index of leading economic indicators likely slowed in April due to higher initial jobless claims, a decline in the ISM vender performance index, and a reduced manufacturing workweek.
Median forecast (of 58): +0.1%; last +0.4%.
 
10:00: Philadelphia Fed business index (May): Partial rebound. We forecast that the steep decline in the Philadelphia Fed index in April partially reversed in May. The Empire State index released on Monday showed a moderate decline, but continued to signal growth in the region’s manufacturing sector.

GS: +22.0; median forecast (of 59): +20.0; last +18.5.

11:00: Another small POMO, today we see the same $1.5 - $2.5 billion in total buybacks as yesterday, however focusing on 08/15/2021-11/15/2027 maturities

13:30: Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher on “Federal Reserve Functions and Economic Update”. Q&A scheduled.
 
13:40: Chicago Fed President Charles Evans at corporate treasurer conference. Q&A scheduled.

from GS and ZH

 

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Thu, 05/19/2011 - 08:14 | 1290753 DaddyO
DaddyO's picture

 

The numbers don't matter unless you live in DC or NYC. On Main St., things are bad and getting worse. The CDC even made reference to a "Zombie Apocalypse" on their blog this week, asking people to prepare.

The scenes inside the gold mine keep getting more bizzare.

DaddyO

Thu, 05/19/2011 - 08:18 | 1290755 oh_bama
oh_bama's picture
  • Can you guys just TRUST THE FED?
  • It will take some time!
  • CLAIMS HIGH DUE TO JAPAN AND WEATHER as indicated in the FED MINUTES!!!
Thu, 05/19/2011 - 09:08 | 1290914 moonstears
moonstears's picture

+1... Doors referenced.

Thu, 05/19/2011 - 09:32 | 1291039 CPL
CPL's picture

I'm going to blame it on smurfs, unicorns and trolls.

 

Yeah i read the zombie outbreak thing from the CDC.  I seriously wonder what these guys do sometimes for the tax dollars given to them.

Thu, 05/19/2011 - 09:49 | 1291100 DaddyO
DaddyO's picture

 

Our tax dollars hard at work!!!

DaddyO

Thu, 05/19/2011 - 08:19 | 1290766 MiningJunkie
MiningJunkie's picture

The fact that the second largest economy in the world is now officially in recession has no ramifications for the global macro trend, RIGHT?

Thu, 05/19/2011 - 08:41 | 1290824 oh_bama
oh_bama's picture

Of course NOT!

If you are talking aobut JAPAN it is the THIRD..

And if you TRUST THE FED you would have BOT THE FD on ES futures a few days ago already!!

 

Thu, 05/19/2011 - 08:22 | 1290768 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

...and the MSM headlines will all state "New jobless claims FELL from..."

...and the body of the reports will state "evidence that the recovery is taking time to accelerate" and "according to economists, jobless claims of sub 400,000 are indicative of job growth".

The MSM has repeated this mantra for months now, yet initial jobless claims have RISEN steadily from 368K in early March (when the economists were saying that jobless claims of below 350K were healthy) to where they are today.

Lies, damn lies, and the MSM!

Thu, 05/19/2011 - 08:26 | 1290772 acrabbe
acrabbe's picture

doom soon. double parachutes. greatest ever asset collapse in modern market history will commence this year. VIX CALLS. RUSSELL PUTS. immediately convert to physical silver, food and ammunition. If you're lucky you might get an iso piece of land and some animals/veggies. bizarro world.

http://slv.collective2.com

Thu, 05/19/2011 - 08:30 | 1290785 sabra1
sabra1's picture

i'm in the process of writing a new cookbook entitled, " How to Eat Well on Roadkill, and How to Make it Taste Like Chicken!"

Thu, 05/19/2011 - 08:46 | 1290837 LFMayor
LFMayor's picture

Roadkill... dude, there's gonna be no gasoline to make your main ingredient.  Personally, I'm going to braise hippies with wild onions and plantains over a railroad tie fire.

Thu, 05/19/2011 - 08:53 | 1290860 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

Creosote gives hippies a tangy, smoky flavor.  It's nice. 

Thu, 05/19/2011 - 13:33 | 1292343 acrabbe
acrabbe's picture

This could be the next growth industry. Canned Cannibalism. I am preparing so I can avoid this. If I have to stack up bodies it will be for fuel and compost, not food! Keep in mind that if people are crazy enough to storm or attempt to loot a heavily guarded residence then they are probably starving and therefore very thin.

I am honestly trying to be right on top of the next crash so I can cash out my puts and pickup a plot with a dock on a waterway somewhere. Aside from buying one of those ex-missilve silo's I see no better last resort defense than a houseboat for if/when you run out of ammo and the compound is overrun by flesh-eating CNN brainwashed zombies.

http://slv.collective2.com

Thu, 05/19/2011 - 08:52 | 1290854 DaddyO
DaddyO's picture

 

Road kill will become a thing of the past as no one can afford fuel, I suggest you get a small caliber rifle and plenty of ammo if you want to eat small game usually found dead on the road.

It's never to late to start preparing for an uncertain future, however most people in the US are oblivious to the storm clouds on the horizon. Although many of my aquaintences are expressing a feeling of impending doom and are starting to realize things may not be as the MSM is telling them.

Look out for huge price swings on longer term storage foods when J6P wakes up to his vulnerability.

DaddyO

Thu, 05/19/2011 - 08:53 | 1290858 Fred C Dobbs
Fred C Dobbs's picture

But less cars on the road mean less roadkill.  

 

Thu, 05/19/2011 - 08:24 | 1290776 writingsonthewall
writingsonthewall's picture

It was the SNOW.

Thu, 05/19/2011 - 08:32 | 1290796 writingsonthewall
writingsonthewall's picture

No you fool - it was the BANK HOLIDAY

Thu, 05/19/2011 - 08:33 | 1290798 writingsonthewall
writingsonthewall's picture

You moron - it was the EARLY EASTER

Thu, 05/19/2011 - 08:36 | 1290802 writingsonthewall
writingsonthewall's picture

What??? - it was clearly the sun and moon alignment in the 4th quadrant of Venus

Thu, 05/19/2011 - 08:34 | 1290805 writingsonthewall
writingsonthewall's picture

Anyone who is anyone know the high number is due to the BIN LADEN EFFECT

Thu, 05/19/2011 - 08:29 | 1290781 bigwavedave
bigwavedave's picture

im in for a shy under 470k today. oops

Thu, 05/19/2011 - 08:33 | 1290801 Temporalist
Temporalist's picture

it was 409,000 but last we was revised up to 428,000

Thu, 05/19/2011 - 09:00 | 1290880 moonstears
moonstears's picture

"It's just a flesh wound"...hope and change 2012!

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