Today's Economic Data Docket - Case Shiller Hits New Double Dip Low, Chicago PMI Tumbles, But Consumers Very Confident

Tyler Durden's picture

Case-Shiller house prices, the Chicago PMI, and consumer confidence. Fasten your seatbelts: bizarro day will be fully enforced today with horrible data leading to market surges.
9:00: S&P/Case-Shiller home price index (March): Possible increase. Unlike the consensus, Goldman forecasts an increase of 0.1% mom in the Case-Shiller house price index, based on its model using asking prices. This would be the first increase in the index since May 2010. The consensus forecasts a 0.2% decline, in line with the previous month.
GS +0.1%; median forecast (of 18): -0.2%; last -0.2%.
9:45: Chicago purchasing managers’ index (May)
. Effects of auto shock. Goldman forecast that the Chicago PMI fell to 62.0 in May from 67.6 previously, consistent with the sizable declines in the other regional manufacturing indexes. Our research finds that the Chicago index is most sensitive to changes in auto production, and so should show effects of recent cutbacks at the Japanese-brand automakers.
GS: 62.0; median forecast (of 49): 62.0; last 67.6.
10:00: Conference Board confidence index (May): Small gain. Like the University of Michigan measure of sentiment, GS expects a small increase in the Conference Board’s measure of household confidence. Improving job market prospects and the decline in gas prices, in particular, should help consumer attitudes.
GS: 67.0; median forecast (of 60): 66.5; last 65.4.

11:00: New York Fed complete tiny POMO, monetizing $1.5.$2.5 billion in debt maturing 08/15/2028-05/15/2041

From GS and ZH

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Dolemite's picture

Headlines from the future ;)

Gold looking to confirm all of these by going higher

Cash_is_Trash's picture

a "tiny" POMO, no biggie, it's only the price tag of the Time Warner Center in NYC.

The Banksta's have no notion of what shit costs...

kaiserhoff's picture

True dat.  Almost a parallel universe.  That will work, until it doesn't.

youngman's picture

It does not matter what the studies show....good or bad...this market is going up....we are celebrating the Greece bailout again....everyone is happy....

Alex Lionson's picture

As long as the world (+the Fed) lend the US money, the US consumer will be happy.

Traianus Augustus's picture

More scam for breakfast please.  Central Bankers special today is the Greek omlette!!!

Platinum_Investor's picture

Whoops bought PUTS Friday on FAS.   How dare I short the market.

LRC Fan's picture

Been short SPY and/or USO for about 6 weeks now.  Hasn't been fun but at any point it could all impolode and any shorts would score huge.  Sentiment has to be so bullish now.  How can it not be?  Shorts have been vaporized consistently in the past 2 years.  Just when you think "this is the news that will trigger a selloff" the Dow drops 150 and then rockets back up to end -75, and then the next day gaps up 125, drifts up 50 the next 2 days and suddenly your puts are worthless. 

Same with crude.  Overnight it might be down $1.50 or $2 but by the time 9:30 rolls around it's usually down about 50 cents or even green, on its way to a +2% day.  I've been saying it for a few weeks now-there is just no downside confirmation, ever.  Once we see two or three really solid days of selling/closing near the lows then it might be time for the shorts to start making money. 

And the volatility has been gone for months now.  We get into a really tight range every day between 11am and about 245 and just stay within 20 or 30 Dow points for those hours.  It's boring and hard to make money on options if there is no movement in prices.  Volume is laughable so it's easy for the market to simply be bid up on air. 

But I'm not giving up on my shorts-any one thing could set off massive selling.  Something in the middle east goes nuts.  A big earnings warning from Apple.  More GDP downgrades.  Dollar strength.  A false flag.  Margin hikes.  Anything can happen.  Expect the unexpected. 

razorthin's picture

To me, its not worth burning through funds with puts.  It costs nothing to have disaster short triggers always waiting under the 200 day MA.

I am more equal than others's picture

Money is my shepherd; I shall want more.
It makes me lie down on Wallstreet.
It leads me to take greater risk.
It restores my soul to make more.
It leads me in paths of excess for its name's sake.

Even though I walk through the valley of the shadow of debt,
I will fear no evil, for the Fed is with me;
your bailouts and your carelessness, they comfort me.

My servants prepare a table before me in the presence of my enemies;
money anoint my head with oil; my cup overflows.
Surely goodness and greed shall follow me all the days of my life,
and I shall dwell in the house of the Fed forever.

Id fight Gandhi's picture

You took own of the most favored psalms and jooed all over it

LRC Fan's picture

Is it just me or has Ron Paul really improved on his speech, dialouge, delivery, body language, etc when giving interviews on TV?  He seems a lot better prepared lately, less stammering and pausing and really feels like he has gained a lot of confidence in what he's saying. 

Racer's picture

And bizarro day started last night with the possibility of giving bankrupts more money so they can stop from going more in debt

Iam Rich's picture

Of them all, it's still pretty tough to watch IYR (RE ETF) rally.  There has simply been no good news in that sector for maybe 8 months.

kaiserhoff's picture

Case Shiller is a shit sandwich.  Way too many filters and adjustments, and the central cities are lagging indicators.

jtmo3's picture

Equities rally. Dollar falls for a while then recovers. Gold drops then recovers. Tresuries rally as fed buys all in sight. Have we not seen this play before. I just wonder how long they can keep the balls in the air. I'm amazed they've lasted this long.


BTW, anyone else feel like we're playing monopoly with phony money? What is this shit really wrth when they can just print it whenever they want and send ME the bill.

Traianus Augustus's picture

Please report to detention hall "C" for reprogramming...