Today's Economic Data Docket - Claims, Current Account, Philly Fed
An important set of indicators for assessing the state of the slowdown: jobless claims, current account, housing starts, and Philly Fed. Expect another confirmation that the economy is in a re-re-recession.
8:30: Jobless claims (Week of June 11): Small decline? Initial jobless claims are down from their late-April peak, but remain above levels in February and March. In Goldman's view, special factors are no longer the major reason behind the elevated level. For the current week, most forecasters look for a small decline. GS would interpret an unchanged reading as a modest positive, given the downbeat message in many other indicators.
Median forecast (of 46): 420,000; last: 427,000.
8:30: Current account balance (Q1): Larger deficit. Net exports figures from the Q1 GDP accounts point to a widening of the current account deficit in Q1. Today’s report will also include annual revisions to the US balance of payment statistics.
GS: -$135bn; median forecast (of 40): -$-130bn; last -$113bn.
8:30: Housing starts (May): Slightly better. In April both starts and permits declined, led by weakness in multi-family building. Given high month-to-month volatility in the multi-family sector, a partial rebound looks likely for May. Yesterday’s NAHB homebuilder sentiment report—which showed a further decline from already low levels—suggests growth in single-family home construction likely remained weak.
On starts, GS: flat; median forecast (of 78) +4.2%; last -10.6%.
On permits, median forecast (of 55) -1.1%; last -4.0%.
10:00: Philadelphia Fed index (June): Downside risks. Market attention on the May Philadelphia Fed report is quite high. Following a weaker-than-expected Empire State result, risks are likely skewed to the downside. However, uncertainty is quite high, and we did not find the evidence compelling enough to revise down our forecast (+5.0). In yesterday’s US Daily, we estimated the impact of auto production cuts on the major manufacturing surveys. The results show that the decline in US auto production can only explain around 20% of the 40-point drop in the Philly Fed index since March. This suggests that other factors are behind the recent weakness. For more details, see the link below.
GS: +5.0; median forecast (of 54): +7.0; last +3.9.
US Daily: Weakness in Manufacturing Surveys Only Partially Due to Auto Disruption (Stehn):
10:00: Federal Reserve Governor Daniel Tarullo testifies on regulatory issues.
11:00 today we begin the 10 last days of POMO countdown, with a $4-5 billion POMO targetting bonds due 06/30/2015 - 11/30/2016
No speeches: The traditional press blackout period in advance of an FOMC meeting is now in effect. Fed officials will be out of sight between now and the June 21-22 discussions.
From GS, SMRA and ZH