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Today's Economic Data Docket - CPI And UMich

Tyler Durden's picture




 

The CPI and index of consumer sentiment:
 
8:30: Consumer Price Index (April): Higher core. We expect another unfriendly CPI report this month. Specifically, we forecast that the all-items CPI rose by 0.39% mom in April, and that the core increased by 0.19% mom. Our forecast for an acceleration in the core (after a gain of 0.14% in March) primarily reflects higher apparel and medical care inflation. If our forecast is correct, year-over-year growth in the core CPI would rise to 1.3%
On headline, GS: +0.39%; median forecast (of 76): +0.4%; last +0.55%.
On core, GS: +0.19%; median forecast (of 77): +0.2%; last +0.14%.
 
10:00 (9:55 to subscribers): Reuters/University of Michigan consumer sentiment (May prelim): Still low. The consensus expects the index of consumer sentiment to remain about unchanged at relatively low levels. This report’s measure of longer-term inflation expectations declined to 2.9% in April from 3.2% in March.
Median forecast (of 62): 70.0; last 69.8 (April final).
 
11:00: Today's POMO is $6-8 billion of 05/15/2018-02/15/2021 maturities

from GS and ZH

 

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Fri, 05/13/2011 - 07:16 | 1271086 hugovanderbubble
hugovanderbubble's picture

Uhm Sorry , i humble think that a lower CPI, will mean lower growth than expected, which turns in lower equity prices.

 Of course i could be wrong,

Fri, 05/13/2011 - 07:42 | 1271105 Pullmyfinger
Pullmyfinger's picture

Well, the way I read it, a higher CPI means higher consumer prices. Since almost everything consumers consume these days is imported, higher prices are indicative of how much additional money is flowing out of the country; hence, less availible in real terms of domesticate growth. If you're spending noticably more for gas, for example, you have less to spend on car loans, etc. --thus overall, decreasing the number of cars sold. Your notion that implies that inflation is good for the economy is drawn directly from the crackpot keynesian/central banking playbook.

Fri, 05/13/2011 - 08:04 | 1271142 hugovanderbubble
hugovanderbubble's picture

+1,

Thanks for u post.

Fri, 05/13/2011 - 08:30 | 1271195 sagerxx
sagerxx's picture

Uhhh, I think you two need to check the batteries in your sarcasm detectors. I think they've gone dead...

Fri, 05/13/2011 - 07:53 | 1271107 depression
depression's picture

Core CPI is still very weak and will be lucky to hold +0.1 and would not surprise me to see it slip to zero or even -0.1 this month. This will help the Fed make the case to ramp up QE-3 next month.

Fri, 05/13/2011 - 08:18 | 1271167 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

hehe. CPI will print close to zero EVEN with rising energy, food and import prices (which are now a given in the new reality). 

Why you ask?

Again I'll repeat: 40% of CPI is calculated on 'owner's equivalent rent' ie the cost of residential housing prorated monthly as if you rent even if you own.

Where is housing going lately?? Down! It's the cover the Fed is using to hide incipient inflation

So the CPI calculation conveniently cancels to close to zero. 

That's BIflation, baby! Enjoy the ride! If you're middle class you won't be for long

Fri, 05/13/2011 - 07:14 | 1271087 oogs66
oogs66's picture

I miss the days of when bad was bad and good was good.  feels like it has been years since that has been true

Fri, 05/13/2011 - 07:18 | 1271089 hugovanderbubble
hugovanderbubble's picture

+1

Ancient days:)

Fri, 05/13/2011 - 08:31 | 1271095 Al Gorerhythm
Al Gorerhythm's picture

Confidence? I have absolutely no confidence that these dip shits can change course. In fact I am fully confident that this ship of fools is steaming straight for the falls, expecting a soft landing. 

Confidence will be reported as neutral or bouyant.

(Disclaimer: Confidence and CPI measures are dictated by the terms of reference).

Fri, 05/13/2011 - 07:31 | 1271096 Robslob
Robslob's picture

In the end...it will be "measured" in Gold.

Fri, 05/13/2011 - 07:52 | 1271116 Pullmyfinger
Pullmyfinger's picture

As the collapse progresses and for some time afterward, I fully agree. But the phenomenon of "economics" is pure physics. Thus ultimately, the only truly effective monetary system to evolve in the aftermath will be one with an energy-backed currency coupled with the rise of the tax-free state.

Just to shake things up a bit :)

Fri, 05/13/2011 - 07:34 | 1271099 MassDecep
MassDecep's picture

Woe unto them that call evil good, and good evil; that put darkness for light, and light for darkness; that put bitter for sweet, and sweet for bitter! Woe unto [them that are] wise in their own eyes, and prudent in their own sight! Woe unto [them that are] mighty to drink wine, and men of strength to mingle strong drink: Which justify the wicked for reward, and take away the righteousness of the righteous from him!

Therefore is the anger of the LORD kindled against his people, and he hath stretched forth his hand against them, and hath smitten them: and the hills did tremble, and their carcases [were] torn in the midst of the streets. For all this his anger is not turned away, but his hand [is] stretched out still

Fri, 05/13/2011 - 07:59 | 1271125 Al Gorerhythm
Al Gorerhythm's picture

Whoa, I need a drink.

Therefore is the anger of the LORD kindled against his people, and he hath stretched forth his hand against them, and hath smitten them: and the hills did tremble, and their carcases [were] torn in the midst of the streets. 

I wanna be saved! Sign me up. <sarc>

Nut job.

Fri, 05/13/2011 - 08:13 | 1271163 Pullmyfinger
Pullmyfinger's picture

I stretched my hand out in the back of a '63 Ford once and it was smitten mightily. Pass the drink.

Fri, 05/13/2011 - 08:37 | 1271196 Al Gorerhythm
Al Gorerhythm's picture

Wild Turkey American Honey do? My round. Put it on my tab. Check out the handle!!!

"Mass Deception". Now there's a double entendre if ever there was one. Fucking classic.

Fri, 05/13/2011 - 07:35 | 1271101 Tail Dogging The Wag
Tail Dogging The Wag's picture


oh, btw it's FRIDAY THE 13TH... so CPI this!

Agricultural properties in Panama, bitchez!

http://www.thorssoncapital.com/land-portfolio.html

caesium-137-FREE

Fri, 05/13/2011 - 09:57 | 1271474 onarga74
onarga74's picture

Those are nice.  You get a hand written Deed of Trust and they throw in the burro.  Right before your bananas are ready to ship the real owner shows up with a representative of each of the armed forces, the judicial police, and a pen. The name of that growing area is called Gringo Pendejo.

Fri, 05/13/2011 - 08:22 | 1271177 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

Under Biflation theory, CPI will print close to zero with minor ticks up here and there. 

 

Fri, 05/13/2011 - 08:32 | 1271194 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

Post 8:30 AM note: see what I mean?

Fri, 05/13/2011 - 08:32 | 1271197 firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index will be a "OMGZ, EVERYONE IS HAPPY AND BUYING"!

Fri, 05/13/2011 - 10:10 | 1271526 onarga74
onarga74's picture

Sayonara inflation long live deflation.  Market cracks and holders of gold will have diarrhea all weekend. Buy TZA today and buy a new car next Wednesday.

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