Several important economic updates due today, among which CPI, Empire Index, Industrial Production and UMichigan consumer confidence. There is a small QE Lite Pomo today closing at 11 am. The Stress Tests are released at noon. Expect more European headlines to whip the EURUSD, and thus ES, around.
8:30: Consumer Price Index (June): Lower core inflation. Overall consumer prices probably edged down in June, but the core index likely logged another increase of around 0.2%. Goldman expects slower inflation in rents, apparel, in vehicle prices relative to last month.
On headline, GS: -0.3%; median forecast (of 80): -0.1%; last +0.2%.
On core, GS: +0.2%; median forecast (of 78): +0.2%; last +0.3%.
8:30: Empire Index (July): Rebound? Consensus forecasts anticipate a rebound in the Empire State index following two months of declines. A higher reading would be consistent with consensus forecasts for stronger GDP growth in Q3, despite firms like JPM already starting to cut Q3 GDP (see post yesterday)
Median forecast (of 47): +5.0; last -7.8.
Complete empire index forecast range:
9:15: Industrial production (June): Steady growth. We forecast a 0.3% increase in industrial production during June. Leading indicators for the report were mixed: the ISM index edged up, but hours worked in the manufacturing sector declined. Weekly vehicle production figures suggest we could see some improvement in auto-related output.
Production: GS: +0.3%; median forecast (of 80): +0.3%; last +0.1%.
Capacity utilization: GS: 76.8%; median forecast (of 63): 76.9%; last 76.7%.
10:00 (9:55 to subscribers): Reuters/University of Michigan consumer sentiment (July prelim): Downside risks. Forecasters are looking for this index to show a small increase. However, timelier measures of household confidence suggest downside risks to the consensus. In the June report, the measure of 5-10yr inflation expectations was steady at 3.0%.
Median forecast (of 61): 72.0; last 71.5 (June final).
11:00: $2.5-$3.0 billion POMO closes as part of the continuing August 2010-announced QE Lite which rolls matring debt on the Fed's balance sheet.
12:00: European Stress Test Part 2: The Farce Strikes Back released to the general public