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Today's Economic Data Docket - CPI, IP, TIC

Tyler Durden's picture




 

CPI, Industrial production, more Chinese Treasury outflows, and a few surveys.
 
8:30: Consumer Price Index (May): Slower headline growth. We forecast a 0.14% (mom) increase in the May CPI, with risks likely skewed to the upside (due to strong food and import prices). We forecast a 0.16% (mom) increase in the core, down from 0.19% in April. Among the major components, we expect slightly slower vehicle inflation, partially offset by faster growth in apparel and rent-related prices.
On headline, GS: +0.14%; median forecast (of 79): +0.1%; last +0.42%.
On core, GS: +0.16%; median forecast (of 79): +0.2%; last +0.19%.
 
8:30: Empire Index (June): Roughly unchanged? Last month the Empire State index did not decline as dramatically as some of the other regional manufacturing surveys. Our research suggests this may be because the index is less sensitive to changes in auto production. This month, forecasters expect a roughly unchanged reading.
Median forecast (of 52): +12.0; last +11.9.  
 
9:00: TICS net inflows (April).
Median forecast (of 5): +$35bn; last +$24bn.
 
9:15: Industrial production (May): Too soon for auto rebound. Cuts in motor vehicle output held back the index of industrial production in April. Manufacturer reports suggest that overall vehicle production likely increased slightly in May (on a seasonally adjusted basis), as gains among the Big Three offset further declines in production from the major Japanese automakers’ US operations. However, the level of auto production should still be significantly below the Q1 average. A larger rebound in vehicle output looks unlikely until the June and July reports.
On production, GS: +0.3%; median forecast (of 79): +0.2%; last 0.0%.
On capacity utilization, GS: 76.9%; median forecast (of 68): 77.0%; last 76.9%.
 
10:00: Housing Market Index (June): Likely still low.This index remains in the mid teens, where it has been for most of the past three years.
Median forecast (of 42): 16; last 16.

11:00: $4-5 billion 12/31/2016 - 05/31/2018 POMO; As this is to the right of the Bill Gross proposed "rate cap" interval except the OTR QQ6 to be heavily monetized

No Fed Speeches: The traditional press blackout period in advance of an FOMC meeting is now in effect. Fed officials will be out of sight between now and the June 21-22 discussions.

From GS, SMRA, ZH

 

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Wed, 06/15/2011 - 07:55 | 1370369 CPL
CPL's picture

Anyone heard anything on Japan in a while?  The MSM is just reporting on the kids in Japan being poisoned by their own governments by proxy of the lying and typical nonsense that comes with modern regimes....I mean democractic institutions.

 

Wed, 06/15/2011 - 08:12 | 1370417 HelluvaEngineer
HelluvaEngineer's picture

I heard it was fixed.  Once everything stops glowing in the dark the reconstruction efforts will begin and supply chain issues will be resolved.  Any day now...

Wed, 06/15/2011 - 07:54 | 1370374 CPL
CPL's picture

Jazz hands!

 

Like watching a slow motion car wreck.  Congrats to anyone that decided to ignore the "rally" yesterday built on 10% the usual volume (adjusted) for that day over 50 years.  Today, other than the usual threat of POMO short sale interruption at 11, it is safe-ish to short.

 

Wed, 06/15/2011 - 07:52 | 1370378 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Yea I did notice the ultra low volume on the magical 130 point up day. Everything so broken.

Wed, 06/15/2011 - 07:58 | 1370383 CPL
CPL's picture

It's damn near impossible to time the algos as well.  I'm pretty sure with all the short backstops in place under the UnFortunate 500, it was the only reason we didn't see a 2.5% rise.

 

We have to think of new and interesting ways to confuse the algos.

Wed, 06/15/2011 - 08:29 | 1370474 snowball777
snowball777's picture

That NatGas algo seemed to do a number on them the other day.

Time for LulzSec to do some co-locating?

Wed, 06/15/2011 - 07:54 | 1370375 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

But no matter the 'data' it will all be OK by afternoon for a green close Im sure. Why even bother watching?

Wed, 06/15/2011 - 08:09 | 1370419 HelluvaEngineer
HelluvaEngineer's picture

Not so sure.  Looks like a lot of shorts were chased out yesterday morning.  This could be an interesting day.  I reloaded VXX early afternoon yesterday.

Wed, 06/15/2011 - 08:18 | 1370435 HITMAN56
HITMAN56's picture

I dont disagree with reloading VXX...butmy thought is that the 20 level on VIX seems to be a pyshcological level so to pay a 22 handle for VXX how much upside could there be?

Wed, 06/15/2011 - 07:58 | 1370394 HITMAN56
HITMAN56's picture

more better than bad econ data. Send lawyers, guns and money...

Wed, 06/15/2011 - 08:02 | 1370397 CPL
CPL's picture

Double plus un-good?

Wed, 06/15/2011 - 08:01 | 1370395 snowball777
snowball777's picture

Having set the world economy ablaze with inflation, while leaving a record-setting gap to be closed by the world's stock markets, the Bernank then turns his back to the audience for effect.

Wed, 06/15/2011 - 07:59 | 1370399 CPL
CPL's picture

He has an audience?

Wed, 06/15/2011 - 08:22 | 1370455 snowball777
snowball777's picture

You don't remember buying a ticket? But seriously, we're talking about a journey through the theater of what passes for his mind here.

Wed, 06/15/2011 - 08:04 | 1370401 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

The stock markets suck, stuck at 6 month ago levels and can only rise on zero volume yesterday. What a joke.

Wed, 06/15/2011 - 08:07 | 1370415 doesmybuttlookf...
doesmybuttlookfatinthis's picture

I was just told I have the body of a greek god. Wait a minute. Oh. Correction. What she meant to say was that I had the body of a goddamn greek.

Wed, 06/15/2011 - 08:23 | 1370460 snowball777
snowball777's picture

CP-aye aye aye.

Wed, 06/15/2011 - 08:41 | 1370493 somethingelse
somethingelse's picture

is anyone else having difficulty loading the treasurydirect.gov   website this morning?

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!