Following China's blistering CPI which came as leaked at 5.4%, today we get our own number which is known by only very select traders on Wall Street. We will also get the Empire Index, TIC treasury flow data, Industrial production and capacity utilization, UMichigan consumer sentiment, a couple of Fed speeches and of course, POMO.
8:30: Consumer Price Index (March): Another gain. Factors lifting consumer prices over the last few months likely persisted in March. We look for a 0.48% mom increase in the headline index, helped by a sharp gain in gasoline prices. The core CPI likely increased by 0.18% mom after a 0.20% gain in February. Although some of the volatile components may have decelerated during the month, firm rent inflation likely prevented a more substantial cooling.
On headline, median forecast (of 81): +0.5%; last +0.5%.
On core, median forecast (of 78): +0.2%; last +0.2%.
8:30: Empire Index (April): Still high. This index remains at a high level, and most recent reports on manufacturing sector activity have been upbeat. In all the upcoming manufacturing surveys, we will be watching for any evidence of supply-chain disruptions resulting from the natural disasters in Japan.
Median forecast (of 54): +17.0; last +17.5.
9:00: TICS net inflows (February).
Median forecast (of 5): +$40bn; last +$51.5bn.
9:15: Industrial production and capacity utilization (March): Weather-related payback. In February industrial production declined on lower utility output. According to the Federal Reserve, this reflected unseasonably warm temperatures in that month. The negative weather effect should reverse this month, and we therefore expect a sizable increase in industrial production. Underlying growth in manufacturing output likely remained solid.
On production, GS: +0.7%; median forecast (of 81): +0.6%; last -0.1%.
On capacity utilization, GS: 77.4%; median forecast (of 65): 77.4%; last 77.0%.
10:00 (9:55 to subscribers): Reuters/University of Michigan consumer sentiment (March prelim): Likely low. The small decline in the consumer sentiment index in late February suggests household optimism was particularly weak late in the month, and will start March at a low level. We therefore think consensus forecasts for a gain may be overly optimistic.
Median forecast (of 65): 69.0; last 67.5.
10:00: Chicago Fed President Charles Evans on monetary policy. Q&A scheduled. Mr. Evans is a voting member of the FOMC this year.
11:00: Fed buys back $5-7 billion in bonds due 04/30/2015-09/30/2016
13:30: Kansas City Fed President Thomas Hoenig speaks on the economic outlook. Q&A scheduled. He is not currently a voting member of the FOMC.
From Goldman and Zero Hedge