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Today's Economic Data Docket - Durable Goods Post A Durable Drop
Only important data point today is the durable goods number which, will be another material drop, and merely the latest confirmation that US economic growth is coming to a complete halt.
8:30: Durable goods orders (April): Likely setback. Goldman forecasts that durable goods orders declined by 2.0% in March, in large part due to weaker aircraft bookings. Core orders and shipments (nondefense capital goods ex-aircraft) may also have softened after large gains in March. In addition, April is the first month of the quarter, and we have observed a tendency for durable goods orders and shipments to temporarily weaken at the start of each quarter (although this effect appears smaller for April than for January, July and October).
GS: -2.0%; median forecast (of 81): -2.5%; last: 4.1%.
10:00: FHFA House Price Index (March): Smaller decline. This index, which tracks the purchase price of homes with agency-conforming mortgages (i.e. it excludes homes with subprime and prime jumbo mortgages), weakened sharply in February. Forecasters anticipate a more moderate decline for March.
Median forecast (of 19): -0.5%; last -1.6%.
13:00: $35 billion in 5 year bonds to be pre-monetized (aka issued). In other words 6 times the cash recovered from the sale of AIG stock
13:30: Minneapolis Fed President Narayana Kocherlakota on “Some Contingent Planning for Monetary Policy”. Audience Q&A.
From GS and ZH
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"latest confirmation that US economic growth is coming to a complete halt"
Quick lower interest rates, print money, boost the economy......
What do you mean we've been doing that for the last 3 years???
Uh oh.
3? Try 30. 50k factories 250+ workers over last 4 decades while pumping sugar monopoly money into the corpse ie you.
.
"doable gurls" -- N.Taleb
Everything going as planned. Isn't it great! Goodbye soverien Currencies, Hello Global Currency.
Roll with it Sheeple, youth already indoctrinated, masses loving the handouts.
Just here for the captcha: 0 + 21 =
"0" say they, Obey
FRN's, bitchez
Let me get this straight.
Polo Ralph Lauren just missed on earnings.
AMAT gives a shitty forecast.
CSCO gives a shitty forecast.
None of the Greek/Euro problems have been sorted out at all.
CostCo posts shitty results.
GlenCore IPO flops.
LinkedIn has hit the skids since the $120 print on IPO day.
Goldman downgrades GDP.
All sorts of food companies/restaurants are raising prices.
Oil is still hugging the $100 level or damn near.
All the recent data has come out extremely weak.
Last night we broke down technically on the S&P.
The reactors are melting down in Japan.
Flights cancelled in Europe due to the volcano.
Horrible tornadoes and storms in the US.
The Middle East is still a powder keg waiting to explode.
QE2 is supposedly ending.
The COMEX is quickly running out of silver.
Volume on the NYSE is laughable.
Unemployment, even by the manipulated gov't stats is 9%.
Insiders are selling like mad, something like 600x/1 last week if I recall correctly.
Most of the world is raising rates.
Housing is not coming back, and is falling off a cliff throughout the world.
The DSK scandal is ongoing.
Supposedly there is a heightened terrorist threat since we killed Osama.
The dollar has suddenly caught a decent bid.
And yet, the ES is down a whopping 1 and a half fucking points. 1 point fucking 5. Anyone who is short has to be pulling their hair out, and capitulation from all the shorts can't be far behind if we somehow surge to a new high in the next week-10 days.
Last night I saw the Dow futures down 97 and laughed and said to myself "it will probably be green by 9:30" and here we are, down just 13. I shit you not, we are 84 points off the lows from about 9 hours ago, maybe more, because I wasn't watching every tick but I did see the Dow -97.
The dollar is consistently ramped up, then crashed to make equities pop back to life. It's happened for at least the past 2 weeks on every day. We threaten to plunge, and then suddenly it's as if God himself smashes down the DXY by a good 15 ticks, pumping the Dow up 25 pts in a snap. Then we get some bullshit "good news" about a takeover, earnings beat, or things not completely falling apart, and we run up a quick 100 on the Dow.
Technicals don't fucking matter.
Bad data doesn't fucking matter.
Earnings warnings only drag down the individual stock, but an upbeat forecast sends the whole sector soaring.
Any bad news is temporary, and any good news is proof positive that QE2 is working and we're on the road to recovery.
I swear they are just baiting the shorts and then crushing them one by one, every single day. From yesterday at 3:30 until about midnight you had an absolutely horrible technical breakdown, but it didn't matter at all. The dollar ran up but lo and behold it's back below 76 just in time for our friends on Wall St to sip their morning java. What else can you do but throw up your hands and BTFD? Honestly, what the fuck can you do? Maybe it's sour grapes, because yeah I'm short, but how the fuck can I add to my shorts now? There has been no downside confirmation. Zero. Zip. Zilch. None. 0. We open -150 on the Dow, drift around and close -130, and then we fall by fucking 25 pts, plunge about 100 on the futures, then BAM back up and at em. It's as if someone's life depends on the Dow not closing -100, and heaven forbid the bears slip one by, the next day cannot ever even think about going down 50+. Truly sickening.
"It's time to buy stocks."
US President Barack Hussein Obama, March 2009
He was right.
Yep, stocks continue to climb the "wall of worry" just fine. Can you imagine if we actually take out the highs within the next 2 weeks? I would probably piss my pants laughing/crying over all my worthless puts. Then I would honestly say "fuck it" and go uber long (after buying some more PMs of course.) I tried to go long one time and I got crushed doing that too, so maybe I should just forget playing the markets and buy more PMs...but I like to dabble in the markets, it's a lot more fun than the casino used to be.
Goldman told him to say that.....don't give him too much credit.
I remember that. I have a big long story about the day he said that. I won't get in to it hear. The short is I didn't buy. What are the chances he tells when to sell. haha
"What are the chances he tells when to sell"
"It's time to nationalize our retirement funds"
President Barack Hussein Obama, December 2012.
Wasn't aware that anyone was still willing to short the market, much less hold a position overnight.
Well I certainly don't want to be caught long when the true crash comes, and it's coming one way or another.
This Durable Goods # will be out soon. If it prints in line with expectations, the market probably will stay where it is, maybe go a bit lower. If it prints well above, we will probably stay where we are, maybe go a bit higher. If it prints well below, we will plunge and then recover all the losses and then some by the time Strategy Session kicks off at noon.
It's sad if you're a bull and actually rooting for horrible economic data to give you the prime opportunity to BTFD so you can close out your position 4 hours later with a huge gain.
i present the blackest of black swan events:
Smoking Gun: Gov’t moles alerted investigator of planted Obama birth certificate 2 months before releaseThe witnesses will be considered terrorists.
Not a bull at all, but if you trade this market, it is irresponsible to attempt to use TA or hold a position without stops. When people receive information before you can, when transparency becomes opaque, you are depending on trust and faith to protect you- poor shields against the arrows of market makers and HFT.
Ever heard the phrase 'pissing into the wind' ? Maybe you could try shorting things that want to go down, rather than the broader market...
I'm short oil via USO puts, I gave up shorting the SPY a while ago.
THE GAME IS RIGGED BITCHEZ!!!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6ljxpyH4dnA&feature=grec_index
Today's criminal syndicate Wall Street banker playbook:
1. Miss on durables...market dip in the premarket.
2. Miraculous bounce back in the first two hours of the regular session...Roach Motel [SPY] to approximately $132.05 [where mynhair noticed algorithmic shorting yesterday]. S&P 100 day sma will be overtaken, and "rally" will be the word, but heavy volume will not advance the Roach beyond the aforementioned point, and as such is doomed to fail.
3. Sell off from that point into the close...with lots of hand rubbing and suddenly bearish bankers over at the BlowHorn [CNBC]
4. High P/E darlings sell all day without mercy [consequently, what is a high enough P/E for Salesforce.com.......500?].
5. After the close, bearish bankers shift tone to "it was some profit taking." Carter Worth of Oppenheimer will be made joyous by the news that the S&P just took strike four.
6. By tomorrow morning, the conversation will be QE3 [which by the way is not coming soon enough to save the market from currently planned truth therapy].
7. By tomorrow morning, well conditioned [in fact now Pavlovian] dip buyers will be egged on by "long term historically cheap valuations" and dreams of S&P earnings of $110. Those players will be washed out before noon.
8. The USD studman dollar is now out of L. Blankfein's closet...and he is pissed off and will continue to storm every office over at Goldman, tube of lube in his hand.
8. By Monday [next week or next month], Lear Jets will be fueled and polished.
There is NO compelling reason to own this market. As such, Average Joe, through sell offs and snap back rallies, will simply continue to NOT GIVE A SHIT...which has been and continues to be the real problem with the market. So much for Ben Bernanke's wealth effect. And it all cost ONLY $5 trillion. Brilliant!
big miss :D
Supply comming into euro and stocks.
http://deadcatbouncing.blogspot.com/
"Durable Goods Plummet: -3.6% On Expectations of -2.5%; 8% Monthly Swing From 4.4% Prior Print; Ex Transportation Consensus Missed By 2%"
8 % drop from last month
who/what yanked the rug out from under durable goods
OIL..
price at the pumps...
hydrocarbon bytches
+1 BITCHEZ!
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