Jobless claims, wholesale inventories, the trade balance and Janet
8:30: Jobless claims (Week of June 4): Balanced risks. The weekly jobless claims report will again be a major focus. In Goldman's view, special factors (related auto production cuts, inclement weather and seasonal adjustment problems) are no longer a major driver of claims, and therefore see balanced risks around today’s report. An unchanged reading would arguably be a positive sign coming after the recent streak of worse-than-expected data.
Median forecast (of 49): 419,000; last: 422,000.
8:30: The US trade balance (April): Japan effects? Goldman forecasts a narrowing in the trade balance in April to -$47.5bn from -$48.2bn previously. Although higher commodity prices likely lifted the nominal value of imports, this was more than offset by weaker import volumes from Japan. This will be the first trade report for Q2, so could have an effect on tracking estimates of current quarter GDP growth.
Median forecast (of 75) -$48.8bn; last -$48.2bn.
10:00: Wholesale inventories (April): Solid growth. Forecasters see strong growth in wholesale inventories continuing in April. In part this may reflect higher commodity prices, which boost the nominal value of wholesaler stocks.
Median forecast (of 32): +1.0%; last +1.1%.
12:00: The Critical Flow of Funds report is released: while many use this to evaluate how much the US consumer's net wealth increased due to the move in the Russell 2000, a far more useful use of the Z.1 is to determine what is really happening in the shadow banking system. This Zero Hedge exclusive analysis will be provided in the afternoon.
12:10: Federal Reserve Vice Chair Janet Yellen on “Housing Market Developments and Their Effects on Low- and Moderate-Income Neighborhoods”. Q&A scheduled.
13:00: Treasury to auction off the last of 3 issues for the week in the form of $13 billion in 30 Year Bonds
Ftom GS and ZH