Quiet day in the US where just jobless claims will provide the last jobs datapoint before tomorrow's NFP. Attention will be focused on Europe where if not today, then very soon, Trichet will admit his mea culpa for hiking rates prematurely, now that the German economy is taking a big turn for the worse.
8:30: Jobless claims (Week of April 30): Still high? Initial jobless claims unexpectedly increased to 429,000 last week, the highest level since January. Given the size and persistence of the recent increase, we believe it reflects an actual deterioration in labor market conditions rather than noise in the data. This week the Department of Labor will publish details on the state level breakdown of last week’s increase as well as anecdotal information on its industry composition.
Median forecast (of 46): 410,000; last: 429,000.
8:30: Productivity and costs (Q1): Modest increase. The advance estimate of Q1 GDP (and in particular, the 3.1% reported growth for real gross value added of the nonfarm business sector) implies a productivity gain of about 1% qoq annualized for the quarter. We expect a slightly larger increase in compensation costs, and therefore low but positive growth in unit labor costs.
For productivity, GS: +1.0%; median forecast (of 68) +1.1%; last (Q4) +2.6%.
For unit labor costs, GS +0.8%; median forecast (of 56) +0.8%; last (Q4) -0.6%.
9:15: Chicago Fed President Charles Evans at Fed banking conference.
9:30: Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke at Fed banking conference on “Implementing a Macroprudential Approach to Supervision and Regulation”.
11:00: POMO closes, following yesterday's minute TIPS POMO, today follows with another very small monetization operation, in which just $1.5-$2.5 billion in 08/15/2028-02/15/2041 bonds are bought.
13:15: Minneapolis Fed President Narayana Kocherlakota on “Some Contingent Planning for Monetary Policy”. He has also scheduled a press conference for 15:15.
From GS and ZH