Today's Economic Data Docket - Initial Claims, Philly Fed, No POMO

Another wildly fluctuating initial claims will be interpreted in any way necessary to justify the ongoing surge in stocks (not so much plummet of the dollar). Prior revision will naturally be higher. The Philly Fed may be interesting to show whether the latent economic weakness from last quarter is pushing over into Q2.

8:30: Jobless claims (Week of April 16): Decline after technical rise. Initial jobless claims likely declined in the second full week of April after rising to 412k in the previous week. In last week’s report, the Department of Labor (DOL) said that “quarter-end volatility” contributed to the rise. This could mean that a backlog of claims from earlier weeks were filed late and lumped in to last week’s report. Whatever the precise cause, the comments from the DOL strongly suggest that technical factors were behind the increase, and we therefore expect it to reverse.
Median forecast (of 47): 390,000; last: 412,000.
 
10:00: FHFA House Price Index (February): Likely soft. This index, which tracks the purchase price of homes with agency-conforming mortgages (i.e. it excludes homes with subprime and prime jumbo mortgages), continues to trend lower. As of January it was down 3.7% from a year earlier. Other measures of house prices and housing activity remain soft, and we therefore do not expect much improvement in the FHFA index in this month’s report.
Median forecast (of 17): -0.3%; last -0.3%.
 
10:00: Index of leading indicators (March): Another increase. We expect that the index of leading economic indicators rose in March. Gains in consumer expectations, supplier delivery times, building permits and hours worked likely contributed positively to the index. The decline in stock prices should subtract moderately from its growth rate.
Median forecast (of 53): +0.3%; last +0.8%.
 
10:00: Philadelphia Fed business index (April): Down from extreme heights. Last month, the Philadelphia Fed business conditions index jumped to 43.4 – the highest reading since 1983. Although we think that conditions in the manufacturing sector remain healthy, we doubt this diffusion index can sustain current levels for very long. More likely, many respondents that reported an increase in activity in recent months will instead report “no change” – indicating a high level of output but no further gains – which would lower the overall index.
Median forecast (of 55): +36.8; last +43.4.

11:00: No POMO today

Source: GS and ZH

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