Today's Economic Data Docket - Initial Claims, PPI, Retail Sales And More Debt Ceiling Busting

Following last week's surge to 474,000, everyone will be seeking confirmation of whether the dramatic deterioration in labor conditions is permanent or merely "seasonally adjusted." We also get PPI and retail sales data, and the last of three auctions ($16 billion in 30 Year notes) which effectively puts the US over the ceiling. Lastly, Bernanke talks to the Senate Banking Committee on regulatory issues.

8:30: Jobless claims (Week of May 7): A cleaner—and lower—read. In late April, initial jobless claims suddenly moved higher. We believe the increase mostly reflects technical distortions related to the late timing of Easter and school spring break holidays (for more details see the US Daily linked below). If correct, initial claims should come down significantly this week as persons collecting benefits over the school recess return to work.
Median forecast (of 44): 430,000; last: 474,000.
 
8:30: Producer Price Index (April): Moderate increase. Higher gasoline prices point to another increase in the PPI, but we see a more moderate gain than the consensus. We expect that growth in the core PPI cooled to 0.2% mom after a 0.3% increase in March.
On headline, GS: +0.4%; median forecast (of 72): +0.6%; last +0.7%.
On core, GS: +0.2%; median forecast (of 69): +0.2%, last +0.3%.
 
8:30: Retail sales (April): Upside Risks. We forecast that retail sales increased by 1.0% mom in April, or 0.7% excluding motor vehicles. Both figures should benefit from the increase in gasoline prices during the month, which raises the nominal value of sales at filing stations. April chain-store sales results were encouraging, but need to be treated with caution due to shifts in the timing of Easter.
On total sales, GS: +1.0%; median forecast (of 78): +0.6%; last: +0.4%;
On sales ex autos, GS: +0.7%; median forecast (of 70): +0.6%; last +0.8%.
 
8:30: Philadelphia Fed President Charles Plosser on the economic outlook. Q&A scheduled.
 
9:30: Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke testifies to Senate Banking Committee on regulatory issues.
 
10:00: Business inventories (March). This business inventories report could imply revisions to the advance estimate of Q1 GDP if results for retail stocks differ from the Commerce Department’s assumptions.
Median forecast (of 45): +0.9%; last +0.5%.

13:00: 30 Year $16 billion in bonds to be auctioned off.

20:00: Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke gives brief remarks at US-Mexico Chamber of Commerce.

Comments

[trav7777]

something better pop up to turn the USS Titanic Silver around

[achmachat]

well.. apparently Mr Keiser has some secret info or something like that. Couldn't really figure out what he was saying; too much wind and Paris.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wGWx83MCI1U

[BlackholeDivestment]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HzXI_ApY4dY

http://www.haaretz.com/news/international/report-iran-receives-another-nuclear-fuel-batch-from-russia-1.361122?localLinksEnabled=false

http://www.naturalnews.com/032277_virus_China.html

http://www.ctv.ca/CTVNews/TopStories/20110511/bedbugs-homeless-superbugs-infections-vancouver-110511/

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6nULwgHsVqw What isn't popping up at this point, the list is huge but, this is the time of the Super Fraudman Sachs and deep capture dark pools of LLord Blankfein. Riots, Revolution, Wars, Mississippi floods, Texas fires, Siberian fires, Fukushima Meltdowns, Killer Twisters, Hurricanes, Great Quakes, Tsunamis, Drought, dead birds, dead fish, dead bats, missing bees etc... Looks like no matter what ''pops up'' nothing phases the beast ...so far. ''They'' just print away, fake the numbers and ...like the Croupier's home in Vegas and World Trade Center 7 ...it's gone.

[Mach1513]

And after each release of data points, our illustrious members of the commentariat at CNBS will project each of these points into infinity.

But as I recall from my old math days circa 1967, you can project a single point in any direction, making all the sturm und drang created by these masters of sophistry less than meaningless.

And, as my stat professor always warned us: the data is never a given, it is always taken. So much for their "projections" and "trendlines."

[TooBearish]

BLythe made her year this month as she takes SI down to 23....BTFD

[docj]

I'm sure MiniTru will have the Party approved jobless numbers this week showing last week's to be a "fluke" or "reporting error" or somehow related to "snow".

[docj]

There you go - it's all good. Claims down to "only" 435K. Rally on, serfs.

[Monedas]

At 21:00 Bernanke with pointer in hand will explain the pyramid with the eye ball on top on the $1 FRN ! It's not some mystical symbol of pyramid power ! Look closely at the horizontal and vertical lines ! It's an organizational fiat flow chart (names omitted to protect the guilty) of the trickle down fiat feeding trough ! The eye ball is the CIA which gets first dibs on the fiat filth...........the base of the pyramid represents welfare recipients, social suck survivors and Acorn operatives ! Monedas 2011 I promise an acorn in every snout !

[vote_libertaria...]

I read yesterday the 'over the debt ceiling' event actually happens on Monday when these bond sales this week settle.

So Timmy will probably announce something scary pre market Monday?