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Today's Economic Data Docket - ISM And UMichigan Confidence

Tyler Durden's picture


Today's ISM manufacturing index will be watched by everyone for signs that America is reverse decoupling again (despite a 70% services-based economy), following the overnight barrage of ugly global PMI data. The median forecast has risen modestly to 52.0 even as regional Fed indices and other June data predicts a sub 50 print. And to baffle everyone with BS, we fully expect that the UMichigan index will come stronger than the median forecast of 72.0, even as the Conference Board consumer confidence index missed earlier this week. Oh yes: there is no POMO today.

10:00 (9:55 to subscribers): Reuters/University of Michigan consumer sentiment (June  final): Stabilization.  Forecasters are looking for this index to remain essentially unchanged after declining in the preliminary June report. Its inflation expectations measures will also receive attention. In the preliminary June release, the measure of 5-10yr inflation expectations increased to 3% from 2.9% previously.
Median forecast: 72.0; last 71.8.
10:00: ISM manufacturing index (June):
A Small Decline? Regional manufacturing indexes have been mixed in June, with the New York and Philly Fed indexes disappointing sharply but Chicago, Dallas and Richmond looking better more recently. Taken together, Goldman expects a slight decline in the ISM in June, although the encouraging Chicago PMI points to some upside risk.
GS: 52.0; median forecast 52.0; last: 53.5.


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Fri, 07/01/2011 - 07:48 | 1418164 HITMAN56
HITMAN56's picture

anyone see VXX trading out there? Usually at least some vol at this point in the morning.

Fri, 07/01/2011 - 07:55 | 1418182 Greeny
Greeny's picture

More likely we'll gonna have flat day even with better data there should be some profit taking before long weekend. I don't think VXX (VIX) is the play here.. Flat and quiet. Man, Silver tanking. Fraudsters!

Fri, 07/01/2011 - 08:02 | 1418194 HITMAN56
HITMAN56's picture

nice comments, on Silver and VIX...thanks Green. I'm short silver for a bit now, but thinking of taking it off soon.

Fri, 07/01/2011 - 08:06 | 1418201 Greeny
Greeny's picture

Yeah, thanks, there is last support around $33.60 + -

If broken then it might go straight for 200 MA at 32,

but my bet is not today. For today we might test


support and that be it.. Let's watch ;)

Fri, 07/01/2011 - 09:25 | 1418420 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

VXX is broken.  My advice: do not trade it, and do not at all option it. 


No more POMO, no more QE2.  Let us see what the market does without its "training wheels."

Fri, 07/01/2011 - 07:55 | 1418176 Greeny
Greeny's picture

Forces pushing Silver to 200 MA on Daily, about $2/oz to go.

Will play bull puts spread below 200 MA for hard rebound

ones it touches it. Dollar down, Silver down, Gold down, amazing.

Fri, 07/01/2011 - 09:25 | 1418411 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Blah blah blah

Fri, 07/01/2011 - 07:55 | 1418183 pepperspray
pepperspray's picture

So I have to wait another week to see 9.1 go higher?

Fri, 07/01/2011 - 08:06 | 1418195 Silverhog
Silverhog's picture

Market could care less about the numbers anymore. Heading to my coin shop today to BTFD.

Fri, 07/01/2011 - 08:44 | 1418265 monopoly
monopoly's picture

Numbers do not mean a lot in a broken market. But tough to short. If I see 1,460 on gold this month will make a call to add physical.

Fri, 07/01/2011 - 09:42 | 1418483 r3volver
r3volver's picture

The early regional manufacturing surveys were weak, yes, but the recent data has actually been pretty strong.  Particularly the Chicago PMI.  I'm actually looking for a modest beat in the ISM, though I had been hoping for a good opportunity to short a big miss on the first day non-POMO day.  Be careful with that one.

Fri, 07/01/2011 - 20:36 | 1420580 taca
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