Today's ISM manufacturing index will be watched by everyone for signs that America is reverse decoupling again (despite a 70% services-based economy), following the overnight barrage of ugly global PMI data. The median forecast has risen modestly to 52.0 even as regional Fed indices and other June data predicts a sub 50 print. And to baffle everyone with BS, we fully expect that the UMichigan index will come stronger than the median forecast of 72.0, even as the Conference Board consumer confidence index missed earlier this week. Oh yes: there is no POMO today.
10:00 (9:55 to subscribers): Reuters/University of Michigan consumer sentiment (June final): Stabilization. Forecasters are looking for this index to remain essentially unchanged after declining in the preliminary June report. Its inflation expectations measures will also receive attention. In the preliminary June release, the measure of 5-10yr inflation expectations increased to 3% from 2.9% previously.
Median forecast: 72.0; last 71.8.
10:00: ISM manufacturing index (June): A Small Decline? Regional manufacturing indexes have been mixed in June, with the New York and Philly Fed indexes disappointing sharply but Chicago, Dallas and Richmond looking better more recently. Taken together, Goldman expects a slight decline in the ISM in June, although the encouraging Chicago PMI points to some upside risk.
GS: 52.0; median forecast 52.0; last: 53.5.