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Today's Economic Data Docket - It's All About The NFP

Tyler Durden's picture





 

Given the many mixed signals in recent data, this month’s Employment Report could prove especially important:
 
7:30: Federal Reserve Vice Chair Janet Yellen on “Finance and Economic Growth” (in Finland). Q&A scheduled.
 
8:30: Employment Report (April): Many moving parts. The sudden rise in initial jobless claims has raised concerns about the health of the labor market. However, we still forecast an increase of 175,000 in nonfarm payroll employment in April. First, claims figures earlier in the month – when the payroll statistics were collected – were much lower. Second, other labor market indicators – such as the Monster.com employment index, consumer attitudes about the job market, and the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing employment index – were consistent with a healthy report. Nevertheless, news released over the last week, including the latest claims figures and the non-manufacturing ISM, point to downside risk to our below-consensus call. We forecast that the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 8.8%.
 
We discussed many questions related to the April Employment Report in yesterday’s US Daily. We see downside risk to employment growth from construction employment, which normally sees a seasonal upswing this time of year. The rise in jobless claims cannot be entirely explained by one-time factors, but this arguably matters more for next month’s Employment Report, given the timing of the increase. Arguments for significant upside risk are less compelling, in our view. The large scale hiring event by McDonald’s Corporation is likely related to natural turnover and seasonal demand, rather than a major business expansion. We find some evidence of seasonal effects in payroll “surprises,” but the results are over a small sample and therefore probably not reliable.
 
On total payrolls, GS: +175k; median forecast (of 86): +185k, ranging from +118k to +325k; last +216k.
On unemployment, GS 8.8%; median forecast (of 80): 8.8%, ranging from 8.6% to 9.0%; last 8.8%.
On earnings, GS +0.1%; median forecast (of 55): +0.2%, ranging from +0.1% to +0.5%; last: 0.0%.
 
10:00: New York Fed President William Dudley at press briefing on regional economy.
 
11:45: St. Louis Fed President James Bullard on the US economy.
 
15:00: Consumer credit (March): Continued increase. Recent consumer credit reports have shown a striking divergence in consumer borrowing by type of debt. On the one hand, non-revolving consumer credit – loans for automobiles, appliances, etc – has increased steadily since mid-2010. On the other hand, revolving consumer credit – mostly credit card debt – has continued to decline.
Median forecast (of 37): +$5.0bn; last +$7.6bn.
 

 


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Fri, 05/06/2011 - 07:28 | Link to Comment anynonmous
anynonmous's picture

Rosie on Bloomberg Radio now savoring the commodity crash

 

http://tinyurl.com/2qovav

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 07:23 | Link to Comment EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

Don't forget that the markets yesterday went down by 140 points. That alone should be justification for a 200 point rise today.

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 07:30 | Link to Comment oogs66
oogs66's picture

maybe today can be Freaky Friday and bad news would actually be bad news.

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 07:45 | Link to Comment Sandy15
Sandy15's picture

Now that just made me laugh.........

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 07:42 | Link to Comment Bazooka
Bazooka's picture

NFP miss, stocks will go up, NFP beat, stocks will go up.

Do you see the insane similarity to this?

Economy improves, silver will be in more industrial demand; if economy sinks, investors wanting save haven will buy more silver....it can't go down.

One word: ZANNY!

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 07:45 | Link to Comment Cdad
Cdad's picture

Isn't the important NFP report issue last month's revision?  Isn't that where the "surprise" will be?

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 07:51 | Link to Comment Shocker
Shocker's picture

We are in a recovery, so I see no reason we don't rally today. ahhahah

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 08:09 | Link to Comment Cole Younger
Cole Younger's picture

Unemployment is going to be higher come June (at least in California). Teachers and assistance are being laid-off. It also looks like state run pre-school and head start programs will be gone.

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 08:12 | Link to Comment r101958
r101958's picture

I wouldn't be surprised if the UE rate comes in at 9.1 or 9.2. Perhaps that is the real reason for all this market turbulence. Pricing in the UE report already.

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 08:19 | Link to Comment X. Kurt OSis
X. Kurt OSis's picture

I'm not so sure we're going to get QE3 and if we do, whether it will matter at all.

We are probably in the top of the fourth inning in this economic experiment. This will likely be a debate carried on by future Keynsian asshat professors, but this is where the rubber will meet the road. Is it the absolute size of the Fed's balance sheet or the rate of change.

QE2 was less effective because the change rate was smaller than the first QE so far less stimulus which is filtering into economic data now. QE2.5 will be marginal relative to the Fed's balance sheet, so no stimulus at all. But the Fed's balance sheet is so large now that QE3 would have to bigger than everything done thus far combined which they probably don't have the political will to do.

You heard it here first, the Fed is shooting blanks at best just hoping the noise will scare the markets higher.

Eventually people will figure this out and which will lead to total systemic failure in anything that can be priced in US dollars.

Monetary stimulus is off-line and fiscal stimulus is off the table at this point (politically speaking). The net is gone. Once the markets figure out that the downside risk is officially limitless, its game over.

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 08:34 | Link to Comment nantucket
nantucket's picture

QE infinity won't matter, the bottom line is that the US govt spends $1.5T more per year than it collects, there aren't enough buyers at these low rates so the Fed had to buy about 75% of the issuance in the past 9 months.  When that 75% buyer steps away,...you tell me, what's gonna happen to bond prices? 

We can grow our way out of you say.  Wrong I say.  Our economy (GDP) grew to $15T in 1Q11 from $14.5T in 1Q10, so we basically paid $1.5T for $0.5T of growth....SWEET!!!

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