The decline in house prices may have slowed in January, but consumer confidence probably dropped in March:
6:00: St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard spoke earlier this morning on monetary policy in Prague. As in his other recent remarks, President Bullard argued that the policy debate will soon turn toward tightening: “Exit strategy was widely discussed in 2010, and that debate will likely revive during 2011”.
9:00: S&P/Case-Shiller home price index (January): Smaller drop. In earlier research we found that home “asking prices” provide valuable leading information for house price trends (See Sven Jari Stehn, “House Prices: Asking Prices Point to Further Near-term Weakness.” US Daily Comment, September 30, 2010). Asking prices remain soft, and we therefore forecast another decline in the 20-city Case-Shiller index for January. However, improvements in other indicators – such as the decline in the unemployment rate – suggest the deflation in prices could slow relative to the past 4-5 months.
Median forecast (of 18): -0.4%; last -0.4%.
10:00: Conference Board confidence index (March): Likely retreat. The Conference Board’s measure of consumer confidence has not yet reflected the impact of higher gasoline prices on household attitudes. The index of consumer sentiment from the University of Michigan, which is timelier, showed a steep drop for the month of March. We therefore look for a decline in the index to 60.0 from 70.4 previously.
Median forecast (of 68): 65.0; last 70.4.
11:00: POMO - Tiny $1-2 Billion TIPS POMO across the entire curve 04/15/2013 – 02/15/2041
From Goldman Sachs and Zero Hedge