A quick look at today's market action confirms that we get even more purposeful obfuscation from Fed pundits whose only strategy continues to "baffle with bullshit." We also have the Services ISM, an episode of Flip that Bond, and the FOMC minutes.
10:00: Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner testifies on the budget before Senate panel.
10:00: ISM non-manufacturing index (March): Small decline. We look for the non-manufacturing ISM index to retreat slightly from high levels. In the past, the index has only reached comparable highs during brief spikes. A large decline appears unlikely, however, given healthy growth in service sector jobs in the March Employment Report.
GS: 59.0; median forecast (of 68): 59.5; last 59.7.
11:00: POMO closes: $6.5-$8.5 billion in 05/15/2018 – 02/15/2021. Look for fun with CUSIP PX2 in today's episode of Flip That Bond
12:45: Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart gives welcome remarks at Atlanta Fed financial markets conference. Mr. Lockhart is not currently a voting member of the FOMC.
12:45: Minneapolis Fed President Narayana Kocherlakota gives welcome remarks at Minneapolis Fed homeownership conference. No Q&A. Mr. Kocherlakota is a voting member of the FOMC this year.
13:00: Philadelphia Fed President Charles Plosser moderates panel at Atlanta Fed financial markets conference. Mr. Plosser is a voting member of the FOMC this year.
14:00: FOMC minutes (March 15 meeting): Diverging views. We see three main questions for the March 15 FOMC minutes released today. First, how much have the committee’s views diverged on the outlook? Recent public comments suggest that several Fed officials are eager to turn the debate towards tightening, while others remain comfortable with the current policy stance. Presumably contrasting views behind the risks to growth and inflation partly explain the differences. Note that as of the March 15 meeting the FOMC will have observed the rise in oil prices but not the February CPI report. We expect the overall tone to sound more hawkish than the last FOMC minutes, in line with the shift in recent public commentary. Second, what communication-related topics were discussed at the meeting? We now know that the committee decided to begin holding regular press conferences after some FOMC meetings. But did it also debate an inflation target, or how it presents its forecasts to the public? Third, was there any serious consideration of stopping quantitative easing (QE) short of the announced $600bn? President Bullard publicly floated this idea last week, but we doubt there is much support in the broader committee.
Using Goldman and Zero Hedge data