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Today's Economic Data Docket - NFP Crunch Time
Some may recall that it was the abysmal August 2010 NFP number that set off the QE 2 chain of events (courtesy of Goldman Sachs, which promptly downgraded the economy, only to upgrade it 4 months later in the worst call to ever come out of its economic department). We may be 45 minutes away from another August... On the other hand, a solid beat in NFP means QE 3 is off the table for a long time, which will really spook stocks.
An advance look at today's events:
A critical jobs report follows a series of weak economic releases:
8:30: Employment Report (May): Slower growth. On Wednesday Goldman lowered its forecast for May nonfarm payroll employment growth to +100,000 from +150,000 previously due to the weaker-than-expected ADP and ISM reports. Consensus forecasts have also moved lower: the Bloomberg median estimate now stands at +165,000, down from +190,000 last Friday. The median estimate for the forecasts updated over the last two days is +130,000. GS continues to expect an 8.9% for the unemployment rate, in line with the consensus.
The composition of employment gains could help determine whether the weakness in recent data was caused by idiosyncratic factors or a broad-based slowing. Weakness concentrated in manufacturing employment would be relatively benign, as it could suggest supply-chain problems resulting from the events in Japan have temporarily stalled activity. If the downshift is instead concentrated in business services and retail employment, it could signal that other factors are weighing on growth.
Also worth watching is the household measure of employment (which weakened last month), hours worked (which could be affected by auto production cuts), and the employment-to-population ratio (because changes in the participation rate may influence the unemployment rate).
On total payrolls, GS: +100k; median forecast (of 89): +165k, ranging from +65k to +250k; last +244k.
On unemployment, GS 8.9%; median forecast (of 85): 8.9%, ranging from 8.7% to 9.1%; last 9.0%.
On earnings, GS +0.2%; median forecast (of 57): +0.2%, ranging from +0.0% to +0.3%; last: 0.1%.
10:00: ISM non-manufacturing index (May): Modest rebound. GS looks for the non-manufacturing ISM index to rebound slightly after an unusually large decline in April. Research suggests that last month’s drop was caused in part by biased seasonal adjustment. For the current month, this bias should fade. However, a larger rebound in the index appears unlikely. Instead, we believe distorted seasonal adjustment artificially raised the index during Q1.
GS: 54.0; median forecast (of 74): 54.0; last 52.8.
12:30: Federal Reserve Governor Daniel Tarullo speaks on regulatory issues.
15:30: Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren at Stanford University. Topic TBD.
From GS and ZH
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I bet the household does better this month since it underperformed so badly last month and CNBS will spend the whole day trying to tell us now that the household one is more accurate. Birth/Death will once again be a bigger number than the raw data on the NFP.
Do I really care about any of this anyway? Let's just look at the market (over)reaction as a buying or selling opportunity...
Haven't we learned in spades that this obsession with number-crunching, statistics, GDP, etc., can never accurately represent the collapse in living standards that is going on?
The only type of qe3 republicans would allow are temporary tax cuts and tax rebates.
Now, if only there actually were some republicans.
I predict a Goldielocks type number, not too hot not too cold, just kicking that proverbial can down the road...
Take out Mcdonalds this month and what's left?
+1
Maybe Starbucks and Walmart will rocket¡:)
Tell me just 10 companies that has in absolute terms signed more people than fired ....in last 6 months
In the US...
and the second derivative...Ok u obtain a job but part time? Temporality?...
and the third issue: In real terms...the wage obtained? Higher or lower than 2-3-5 years ago for the same job application....
*THE SYSTEM IS COMPLETLY ABOUT TO EXPLODE
We need to get the old census workers back to pass out USDA food plate refrigerator magnets in the food deserts to up next months numbers.
The key for next months, will be Debt Ceiling....
imho US needs to raise interest rates gradually and slowly.....now and PUT a big Hurdle Cap in the Debt.
Sell paper silver (good phyz buy in a few weeks)
Sell stocks
http://deadcatbouncing.blogspot.com/
News do not drive markets! Exogenous events don't move markets! It's linear extrapolation which always fails. Also, these news are all lagging indicators, it's like driving with only your rear view mirror....your car will be wrecked by the time you even go half way to your destination....hence the result of many investors' fortunes.
Endogenous (social mood) moves the markets in fractals and the best way to measure these fractals is by Elliot Waves which is based on the fibonacci ratios that are inherent in our fractal nature. These fractals, while not always accurate, allows you to peak around the corner, regardless of news or exogenous events.
A miss and a big downward revision to last month seems about right.
Make or break time for the buck.
This NFP number looks to be a big miss if the decline today of silver down to a low of $35/oz is anything to go by.
Could not possibly have had silver at $50/oz or even $40/oz when this final NFP number for the QE2 period comes out.
Should this NFP number be a miss then another round of QE is guaranteed.
Bad NFP: bad economy, stocks plunge. Good NFP: no QE3, stocks plunge.
I think silver has formed another bottom today - $35/oz.
Let the short squeeze commence.