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Today's Economic Data Docket - NFP On Deck

Tyler Durden's picture





 

Only one thing matters in today's economic docket: an overly priced-in NFP beat. Whisper number now is at 140k even as the median forecast has pushed up just modestly to 105K. The reason is that the key Wall Street banks are well above the median, and for some reason they are the ones that matter. Citi's Steve Englander summarizes the data as follows: "
About 20% of the forecasters polled by Bloomberg changed their forecasts today and the median forecast for those with a July 7 timestamp is 125K vs. 100K for those with a July 6 or earlier timestamp. So the true consensus is probably somewhat above the median of 105K that includes both revised and unrevised forecasts. Citi expects 100k, private sector jobs forecasted to rise 130K. The range for the July 7 forecasts is 85K to 175k and is well distributed in this range. It is probably the case that an above 150K outcome will be regarded as a positive surprise and below 115K as a negative. The rates moves of a couple of bps higher in – and 10-year yields is consistent with a modest upside shift in expectations but no wholesale change."

Full data docket from Goldman:

8:30: Employment Report (June): Stronger growth. The June labor market report is likely to be considerably stronger than its predecessor. We expect a gain of 125,000 nonfarm payrolls, with risk tilted to the upside, and a decline in the unemployment rate to 9.0%. The Bloomberg median consensus for total payrolls is currently 105,000, up from 90,000 last week. The average of forecasts updated yesterday—after a better-than-expected ADP report—is 126,000.
 
Most labor market indicators have been stable or better in recent weeks. New jobless claims ranged between 418,000-432,000 for seven weeks, job advertising has held at reasonably robust levels, the employment indexes in both of the ISM surveys improved (albeit only marginally for the non-manufacturing index), and the ADP report on private-sector employment growth was much firmer. In addition, several special factors likely held back job growth in May, including disruptions in the motor vehicle sector, inclement weather, and technical factors related to the timing of the payroll survey. These factors likely reversed, implying better results for June.
 
Payrolls: GS: +125k; median forecast (of 85): +105k, ranging from +40k to +175k; last +54k.
Unemployment: GS 9.0%; median forecast (of 83): 9.1%, ranging from 8.9% to 9.2%; last 9.1%.
Earnings: GS +0.1%; median forecast (of 54): +0.2%, ranging from +0.1% to +0.3%; last: 0.3%.

 
10:00: Wholesale inventories (May). The May wholesale inventories report may have implications for our “bean count” estimate of Q2 GDP.
Median forecast (of 32): +0.6%; last +0.8%.
 
15:00: Consumer credit (May): Steady growth. Consensus forecasts expect that consumer (non-mortgage) credit increased for an eighth consecutive month in May. Recent growth in consumer credit has been driven by “non-revolving” debt, such as auto loans. Credit card borrowing has continued to decline.
Median forecast (of 36): +$4.0bn; last +$6.2bn

 


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Fri, 07/08/2011 - 07:49 | Link to Comment alexwest
alexwest's picture

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Fri, 07/08/2011 - 07:39 | Link to Comment Ray1968
Ray1968's picture

Today is my 1 year anniversary of being a ZH member. Coincidentally, it is my last day on my current job. Just a coincidence.

NFP?? Phoey!

Fri, 07/08/2011 - 07:45 | Link to Comment alien-IQ
alien-IQ's picture

I guess it'll boil down to how many jobs McDonald's added and the birth/death voodoo.

The magic of government statistics.

Fri, 07/08/2011 - 07:48 | Link to Comment pendragon
pendragon's picture

expect another +150kish births deaths joke/ fudge pump model adjustment that the economists seem to miss every month

Fri, 07/08/2011 - 07:51 | Link to Comment cosmictrainwreck
cosmictrainwreck's picture

well, I dream of being smart enough some day to figure out this: we add 125,000 jobs in a month, and get 400,000 new jobless claims per week. have I got my time-frames wrong? 

Fri, 07/08/2011 - 07:51 | Link to Comment pendragon
pendragon's picture

with 420k + weekly claims the economy cannot be creating net jobs but doubtless the post qe2 economic data upside surprise conspiracy will be continued.

Fri, 07/08/2011 - 07:56 | Link to Comment HITMAN56
HITMAN56's picture

im in for 115k...prob will be higher...seeing how its 1. all BS and B. will be totally cooked #s

Fri, 07/08/2011 - 08:04 | Link to Comment 101 years and c...
101 years and counting's picture

put me down for 45-60K.  markets already rallied 8% in a week.  what a great way to destroy all the bagholders that have piled in at the top.

 

Fri, 07/08/2011 - 08:04 | Link to Comment Greeny
Greeny's picture

I'm IN for 132K

Fri, 07/08/2011 - 07:58 | Link to Comment youngman
youngman's picture

we need 250-300,000 jobs a month to get positive again...so 115-150,000....we are still losing...I also heard today the new normal unemployment is 6.5%...when during Bush the 4.7% was terrible according to the liberals/Socialists..only one stat to watch....foodstamps....no changes there..

Fri, 07/08/2011 - 08:16 | Link to Comment Boilermaker
Boilermaker's picture

Irrelevant...true, but irrelevant.

Fri, 07/08/2011 - 08:03 | Link to Comment Archimedes
Archimedes's picture

I have a funny feeling the number is going to be huge! A 200K birth Death model, 174K Private sector Jobs and only 54K loss on Govt. Jobs for a total of:

320K jobs added! All that summer hiring for the Month of June to be fired in early August.

Hey, You ever notice the Birth Death number is always a positive number? You mean there is never a time when we actually have a net loss of business being created or destroyed?

Anyway that is my estimate. Joe Lavornga signing out.

 

 

Fri, 07/08/2011 - 08:08 | Link to Comment pendragon
pendragon's picture

seems that way. jan is the only month when it's really negative...

Fri, 07/08/2011 - 08:09 | Link to Comment 101 years and c...
101 years and counting's picture

The birth/death gets 'adjusted' every year in Jan or Feb. Usually a huge downward revision of 800-1000 jobs. 

Fri, 07/08/2011 - 08:04 | Link to Comment alien-IQ
alien-IQ's picture

the only real question is: Will the /ES break 1360 before 8:30 or will it stay flat and then explode to a fresh high over 1370 at 8:31?

Fri, 07/08/2011 - 08:10 | Link to Comment Wm the Shrubber
Wm the Shrubber's picture

I see that the TOTUS will be making a statement regarding the jobs report at 10:35am.  This can only mean that he already knows what it is, that an extremely large beat fis in store, and for this he must quickly claim credit and perpetuate the recovery illusion.

Fri, 07/08/2011 - 08:11 | Link to Comment Wm the Shrubber
Wm the Shrubber's picture

I see that the TOTUS will be making a statement regarding the jobs report at 10:35am.  This can only mean that he already knows what it is, that an extremely large beat is in store, and for this he must quickly claim credit and perpetuate the recovery illusion.

Fri, 07/08/2011 - 08:11 | Link to Comment Wm the Shrubber
Wm the Shrubber's picture

I see that the TOTUS will be making a statement regarding the jobs report at 10:35am.  This can only mean that he already knows what it is, that an extremely large beat is in store, and for this he must quickly claim credit and perpetuate the recovery illusion.

Fri, 07/08/2011 - 08:30 | Link to Comment alien-IQ
alien-IQ's picture

18,000 LOL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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