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Today is my 1 year anniversary of being a ZH member. Coincidentally, it is my last day on my current job. Just a coincidence.
I guess it'll boil down to how many jobs McDonald's added and the birth/death voodoo.
The magic of government statistics.
expect another +150kish births deaths joke/ fudge pump model adjustment that the economists seem to miss every month
well, I dream of being smart enough some day to figure out this: we add 125,000 jobs in a month, and get 400,000 new jobless claims per week. have I got my time-frames wrong?
with 420k + weekly claims the economy cannot be creating net jobs but doubtless the post qe2 economic data upside surprise conspiracy will be continued.
im in for 115k...prob will be higher...seeing how its 1. all BS and B. will be totally cooked #s
put me down for 45-60K. markets already rallied 8% in a week. what a great way to destroy all the bagholders that have piled in at the top.
I'm IN for 132K
we need 250-300,000 jobs a month to get positive again...so 115-150,000....we are still losing...I also heard today the new normal unemployment is 6.5%...when during Bush the 4.7% was terrible according to the liberals/Socialists..only one stat to watch....foodstamps....no changes there..
Irrelevant...true, but irrelevant.
I have a funny feeling the number is going to be huge! A 200K birth Death model, 174K Private sector Jobs and only 54K loss on Govt. Jobs for a total of:
320K jobs added! All that summer hiring for the Month of June to be fired in early August.
Hey, You ever notice the Birth Death number is always a positive number? You mean there is never a time when we actually have a net loss of business being created or destroyed?
Anyway that is my estimate. Joe Lavornga signing out.
seems that way. jan is the only month when it's really negative...
The birth/death gets 'adjusted' every year in Jan or Feb. Usually a huge downward revision of 800-1000 jobs.
the only real question is: Will the /ES break 1360 before 8:30 or will it stay flat and then explode to a fresh high over 1370 at 8:31?
I see that the TOTUS will be making a statement regarding the jobs report at 10:35am. This can only mean that he already knows what it is, that an extremely large beat fis in store, and for this he must quickly claim credit and perpetuate the recovery illusion.
I see that the TOTUS will be making a statement regarding the jobs report at 10:35am. This can only mean that he already knows what it is, that an extremely large beat is in store, and for this he must quickly claim credit and perpetuate the recovery illusion.
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