The only thing that matters today is the NFP number at 8:30 am. Goldman sees 175,000 and 8.9%, consensus is 190,000, ranging from 150,000 to 295,000. NY Fed's Bill "Go Eat iPad" Dudley will speak at the E-3 summit in Puerto Rico. Expect more culinary advice on how to best cook one's deflationary plastic appliances. Also today we get the March ISM expected to come at 61.0, construction outlays, and the Dallas Fed.
8:15: Philadelphia Fed President Charles Plosser on the progress of the national recovery and the challenges for monetary policymakers. Q&A scheduled. Mr. Plosser is a voting member of the FOMC this year.
8:30: Employment Report (March): Improving trend. Available labor market indicators for the month of March point to another healthy gain in jobs, but not a blockbuster Employment Report. Coming into the month, Goldman thought the underlying trend in payroll growth was about 150k,000. Since then, Goldman believes initial and continuing claims have both improved, suggesting a further normalization in labor market conditions. Other indicators were mixed, with the regional manufacturing surveys and on-line job postings quite positive, but the “jobs differential” in the consumer confidence report slightly worse. Weather-related effects may have helped reported employment gains again: temperatures were colder than seasonal norms in February and warmer in the survey week for March. Putting it together, Goldman sees an increase of 175,000 in nonfarm payroll employment.
Although payroll employment looks likely to increase at an above-trend pace, Goldman expects the unemployment rate to remain unchanged. Increases in the household survey’s measure of employment have outpaced gains in payrolls recently and could cool. Moreover, after a steep decline, the participation rate could correct higher.
On total payrolls, GS: +175k; median forecast (of 83): +190k, ranging from +150k to +295k; last +192k.
On unemployment, GS 8.9%; median forecast (of 80): 8.9%, ranging from 8.7% to 9.1%; last 8.9%.
On earnings, GS +0.1%; median forecast (of 51): +0.2%, ranging from 0.0% to +0.3%; last: 0.0%.
9:00: Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher on “Global Influence of Business in North Texas”. Q&A scheduled. Mr. Fisher is a voting member of the FOMC this year.
10:00: ISM manufacturing index (March): Mean reversion. Despite good results from the regional manufacturing surveys during the month, we believe the national ISM index is set to correct downward. In the past, it has rarely sustained such high levels for long. In addition, the latest purchasing managers’ indexes from overseas have shown signs of softening.
Median forecast (of 79) 61.0; last: 61.4.
10:00: New York Fed President William Dudley speaks at the E-3 Summit of the Americas:
Export Trade Basics 101 Forum in San Juan, Puerto Rico. Note that the
speech takes place at 10:00am local time but 9:00am Eastern Standard
Time. This type of venue would not normally lend itself to detailed
comments about the outlook for the economy or monetary policy. However,
given the recent volume of speeches from other regional bank presidents,
Goldman expects that Mr. Dudley will take the opportunity to update
markets on his views. Q&A scheduled.
10:00: Construction outlays (February): Small gain. We forecast a small increase in nominal construction expenditures on a gain in nonresidential building. Residential construction should remain weak given the recent decline in housing starts.
Median forecast (of 49): -0.2%; last -0.7%.
Late morning/early afternoon: Lightweight vehicle sales (March). About unchanged. Anecdotal reports from the manufacturers suggest overall vehicle sales were about unchanged in March.
For total sales: GS: 13.2 million; median forecast (of 39): 13.25mm; last: 13.38mm.
For domestic: GS: 10.0mm; median forecast (of 18): 10.12mm; last 10.22mm.
From Goldman Sachs and Zero Hedge