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And X factor has droped Cheryl Crow...stocks up, dollar down.
Pending home sales down 11.6%, should be good for another 100+ points on the Dow.
In my area of AZ, we just crossed back to 1990's prices. Down about 50-60% from the peak in 2006. Foreclosures and percentage of underwater homeowners rising (green shoots?).
keynesianisme: "Markets are all about psychology so we have to lie to you to make you feel better"
how long before a "pending retail sales" report is published in pathetic attempt to to try and polish this turd called the US Economy? You know, the one where joe cunt thinks he might buy some shit, but not just yet.
I bought a George Forman grill last night, overnight delivery.. This is bullish for Fedex and Salton. I Hope that helps.
Firstly - All hail Tyler. You do a phenomenal job. Please keep up the fantastic work.
Secondly – I’m still mentally juggling with the inflation scenario. Any observations are most welcome.
• We have huge money printing
• Asian / China bid on commodities and energy
• Low’ish Government CPI readings (or higher if you go by shadow stats.)
This feels inflationary.
However, there are a number of other points leading to a deflationary environment.
• QE2 coming to an end
• Chinese construction wobbles
• A large sovereign debt problem in the developed world
• Lots of unemployed
How will inflation become endemic in the wider economy when so many people remain unemployed? Are people really going to go cap in hand to the boss and ask for a raise? If they do, what are the chances of them getting it? The odds must be very small.
When QE3 to QEn comes online, I can see how we will get more financial asset price inflation but how can inflation become entrenched (and boosted) by increasing wages?
Do we get an ever decreasing standard of living for society as the price of everything goes up, but wages stay flat? Do we get a de-coupling of financial assets and the real economy? Will QEn result in essentials spiralling ever higher in price, which when combined with high unemployment, means life will be harsh for everyone (everyone not reading ZH that is)?
Captain: listen pal, your are either one of us or your little people.
Decker: no choice?
Captain: No choice, pal.
I've adjusted to the World of Bladerunner outlook for quite some time now.
They have won, it was a multi-generational operation.
See E-Digital transactions.
Public unions will be the first to move wages higher, only after they have secured their pentions.
There's still a lot of room to squeese lifestyle before inflation really takes off.
Commodities could go up 500% from here before the unions strike.
Watch for congress to quietly link salaries to CPIx2 or something like that.
Chinese wages and US wages have a big gap to close. Look for high value jobs closing that gap.
This will take years to play out.
I can't answer your questions about stagflation, I can offer my humble opinion that while those are the facts, i think they are fairly irrelevant. Facts don't apply when a system doesn't operate based on those facts. The only thing that matters, is the individual citizens intent to remain subservient regardless of facts. I wish i could make this point more effectively, but until everyone makes the conscious choice to turn off the T.V. and risk their contrived identities (i.e. car, house, clothes, friends) through meaningful protest, practical discussions are irrelevant.
1356 is my next target followed by a precipitous sprint to 1234ish.
but what the hell do i know, my opinion is about as relevant as the facts at this point.
Today's volume will be horribly low. Probably lowest of the year (my prediction). Therefore, they will ramp it up. Probably good for +100 on the Dow today just from zero volume.
feel good Friday?
Not so sure, something is wrong...in the air I mean. Just a feeling. Not even the birds sang this morning.
Really? I thought it was pretty good this morning. Traffic was very light. Weather is good. People are generally happy going into a 3-day weekend. Perfect time to ram(p) up the market.
(and our futures just went green)
I agree BF, theres is an eery feeling about things at the moment.
Makes me want to play the song "In the Air Tonight" - vintage Miami Vice and appropriate lyrics. Many share the same feeling. To many balls in the air getting wobbly: housing down (more/again), Europe a mess without a solution in years that appears to be getting bubbly, emerging markets trying to shut down internal inflation, Middle East more stable but always iffy, and QE2 coming off so less pumping liquidity. Prepare for vol, although from the near-money VIX you wouldn't know it.
We need a "New Deal". Bama's "New Steal"* ain't cuttin it.
* I'm an equal opportunity political party basher. Both parties suck IHMO.
Nobody is working today, just us underlings. Highways were empty. They all went to the Hamptons last night I think.
Nasdaq in a great place for a sell entry
Nasdaq in a great place for a sell entry
"Goldman forecasts that nominal consumer spending increased by 0.4% mom in April, but all of the gain likely resulted from price change"
So, do I understand this correctly - food and fuel are excluded from core CPI because they fluctuate (and make it seem like we have inflation), so those items are left out of the adjusted inflation numbers, BUT when they look at total consumer spending, those items are now factored back in? I guess that is one way to make it look like the avid consumer is back.
The difference is core vs. non-core and isn't any kind of recent change. The issue is volatility in food/energy complex distorts the near-term trends so it's easier to look at it without them (i.e. take out the noisiest factors and you have a more dependable series providing insight into what's going on). Implicitly though many are on a fixed income so you inflate those consistently enough, you will see the impact throughout the chain as they are attached to the production/transportionation of everything as well as discretionary income left over. You can look at it either way but even when this stuff was muted it's just a better short-term data series without the vol/noise of those components. Longer-term though you want them in and if the upmoves are sustained long-enough they will make their way in.
"You can look at it either way but even when this stuff was muted it's just a better short-term data series without the vol/noise "
I agree - I was just trying to make a point though. They use whatever numbers they need in order to make the overall picture just a little bit rosier. Sure, consumer spending is up - but only because food and fuel has risen. But, if you ask them if the increase in consumer spending was due to inflation, they say no, and point to their inflation numbers that conveniently carve those two volatile indices out.
Do they like to have their (your) cake, and eat it too?
Some things never change...
“Here we are, servants today!
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