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Today's Economic Data Docket - Personal Non-Income And Lack Of Savings, UMich Sentiment And Pending Home Sales

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Personal income, completely irrelevant and mostly made up consumer sentiment and pending home sales.
 
8:30: Personal income and outlays (April): Weak real spending. Goldman forecasts that nominal consumer spending increased by 0.4% mom in April, but all of the gain likely resulted from price change. In real terms, it forecasts that consumer spending was flat during the month. Similarly, it forecasts a 0.6% increase in nominal personal income, but just a 0.2% increase after adjusting for inflation. For the core PCE deflator, it forecasts a firm reading of +0.23% mom. Yesterday’s GDP report implied that both income and spending for prior months will be revised down.
Income: GS +0.6%; median forecast (of 77): +0.4%; last +0.5%.
Spending: GS: +0.4%; median forecast (of 81): +0.5%; last +0.6%.
Core PCE price index: GS: +0.23%; median forecast (of 56): +0.2%; last +0.1%.
 
10:00 (9:55 to subscribers): Reuters/University of Michigan consumer sentiment (May final)
: Probably unchanged.  Forecasters are looking for this index to remain unchanged in the final May result, after increasing moderately in the preliminary report. In the last release, the measure of 5-10yr inflation expectations was 3.0%—in the middle of its typical range.
Median forecast (of 52): 70.0; last 69.6 (Apr prelim).
 
10:00: Pending home sales (April): Small reversal? The consensus expects that the pending home sales index fell 1.0% mom in April after a 5% increase in March. This measure tracks signed rather than closed home sales contracts, and leads the official count of existing home sales by 1-2 months.
Median forecast (of 39): unchanged; last -1.0%.

from GS and ZH

 

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Fri, 05/27/2011 - 07:54 | 1315825 johny2
johny2's picture

And X factor has droped Cheryl Crow...stocks up, dollar down.

Fri, 05/27/2011 - 12:10 | 1317023 FEDbuster
FEDbuster's picture

Pending home sales down 11.6%, should be good for another 100+ points on the Dow.

In my area of AZ, we just crossed back to 1990's prices.  Down about 50-60% from the peak in 2006.  Foreclosures and percentage of underwater homeowners rising (green shoots?).

Fri, 05/27/2011 - 07:54 | 1315826 RubberMartyr
RubberMartyr's picture

keynesianisme: "Markets are all about psychology so we have to lie to you to make you feel better"

Fri, 05/27/2011 - 07:58 | 1315829 King Dong
King Dong's picture

how long before a "pending retail sales" report is published in pathetic attempt to  to try and polish this turd called the US Economy? You know, the one where joe cunt thinks he might buy some shit, but not just yet.

Fri, 05/27/2011 - 08:24 | 1315860 plocequ1
plocequ1's picture

I bought a George Forman grill last night, overnight delivery.. This is bullish for Fedex and Salton. I Hope that helps. 

Fri, 05/27/2011 - 07:59 | 1315830 BS_Merchant
BS_Merchant's picture

Firstly - All hail Tyler. You do a phenomenal job. Please keep up the fantastic work.

Secondly – I’m still mentally juggling with the inflation scenario. Any observations are most welcome.

• We have huge money printing
• Asian / China bid on commodities and energy
• Low’ish Government CPI readings (or higher if you go by shadow stats.)

This feels inflationary.

However, there are a number of other points leading to a deflationary environment.

• QE2 coming to an end
• Chinese construction wobbles
• A large sovereign debt problem in the developed world
• Lots of unemployed

How will inflation become endemic in the wider economy when so many people remain unemployed? Are people really going to go cap in hand to the boss and ask for a raise? If they do, what are the chances of them getting it? The odds must be very small.

When QE3 to QEn comes online, I can see how we will get more financial asset price inflation but how can inflation become entrenched (and boosted) by increasing wages?

Do we get an ever decreasing standard of living for society as the price of everything goes up, but wages stay flat? Do we get a de-coupling of financial assets and the real economy? Will QEn result in essentials spiralling ever higher in price, which when combined with high unemployment, means life will be harsh for everyone (everyone not reading ZH that is)?

Fri, 05/27/2011 - 08:06 | 1315837 blindfaith
blindfaith's picture

From Bladerunner:

Captain: listen pal, your are either one of us or your little people.

Decker: no choice?

Captain: No choice, pal.

Fri, 05/27/2011 - 08:23 | 1315874 Duuude
Duuude's picture

 

I've adjusted to the World of Bladerunner outlook for quite some time now.

They have won, it was a multi-generational operation.

See E-Digital transactions.

It's here.

 

EOS

Fri, 05/27/2011 - 08:27 | 1315876 bbq on whitehou...
bbq on whitehouse lawn's picture

Public unions will be the first to move wages higher, only after they have secured their pentions.

There's still a lot of room to squeese lifestyle before inflation really takes off.

Commodities could go up 500% from here before the unions strike.

Watch for congress to quietly link salaries to CPIx2 or something like that.

Chinese wages and US wages have a big gap to close. Look for high value jobs closing that gap.

This will take years to play out.

 

Fri, 05/27/2011 - 08:29 | 1315878 augie
augie's picture

I can't answer your questions about stagflation, I can offer my humble opinion that while those are the facts, i think they are fairly irrelevant. Facts don't apply when a system doesn't operate based on those facts. The only thing that matters, is the individual citizens intent to remain subservient regardless of facts. I wish i could make this point more effectively, but until everyone makes the conscious choice to turn off the T.V. and risk their contrived identities (i.e. car, house, clothes, friends) through meaningful protest, practical discussions are irrelevant.

1356 is my next target followed by a precipitous sprint to 1234ish.

but what the hell do i know, my opinion is about as relevant as the facts at this point.

Fri, 05/27/2011 - 08:04 | 1315836 Ray1968
Ray1968's picture

Today's volume will be horribly low. Probably lowest of the year (my prediction). Therefore, they will ramp it up. Probably good for +100 on the Dow today just from zero volume.

Fri, 05/27/2011 - 08:08 | 1315841 blindfaith
blindfaith's picture

feel good Friday?

 

Not so sure, something is wrong...in the air I mean.  Just a feeling.  Not even the birds sang this morning.

Fri, 05/27/2011 - 08:16 | 1315856 Ray1968
Ray1968's picture

Really? I thought it was pretty good this morning. Traffic was very light. Weather is good. People are generally happy going into a 3-day weekend. Perfect time to ram(p) up the market.

(and our futures just went green)

Fri, 05/27/2011 - 08:16 | 1315858 Hedge Jobs
Hedge Jobs's picture

I agree BF, theres is an eery feeling about things at the moment. 

Fri, 05/27/2011 - 10:25 | 1316453 Slim
Slim's picture

Makes me want to play the song "In the Air Tonight" - vintage Miami Vice and appropriate lyrics.  Many share the same feeling.  To many balls in the air getting wobbly: housing down (more/again), Europe a mess without a solution in years that appears to be getting bubbly, emerging markets trying to shut down internal inflation, Middle East more stable but always iffy, and QE2 coming off so less pumping liquidity.  Prepare for vol, although from the near-money VIX you wouldn't know it.

Fri, 05/27/2011 - 08:04 | 1315838 Alex Kintner
Alex Kintner's picture

We need a "New Deal". Bama's "New Steal"* ain't cuttin it.

* I'm an equal opportunity political party basher. Both parties suck IHMO.

Fri, 05/27/2011 - 08:19 | 1315864 the not so migh...
the not so mighty maximiza's picture

Nobody is working today, just us underlings.  Highways were empty.  They all went to the Hamptons last night I think.

Fri, 05/27/2011 - 08:30 | 1315900 Dolemite
Dolemite's picture


Nasdaq in a great place for a sell entry

http://deadcatbouncing.blogspot.com/

Fri, 05/27/2011 - 08:39 | 1315921 Iam_Silverman
Iam_Silverman's picture

"Goldman forecasts that nominal consumer spending increased by 0.4% mom in April, but all of the gain likely resulted from price change"

So, do I understand this correctly - food and fuel are excluded from core CPI because they fluctuate (and make it seem like we have inflation), so those items are left out of the adjusted inflation numbers, BUT when they look at total consumer spending, those items are now factored back in?  I guess that is one way to make it look like the avid consumer is back.

Fri, 05/27/2011 - 10:28 | 1316480 Slim
Slim's picture

The difference is core vs. non-core and isn't any kind of recent change.  The issue is volatility in food/energy complex distorts the near-term trends so it's easier to look at it without them (i.e. take out the noisiest factors and you have a more dependable series providing insight into what's going on).  Implicitly though many are on a fixed income so you inflate those consistently enough, you will see the impact throughout the chain as they are attached to the production/transportionation of everything as well as discretionary income left over.  You can look at it either way but even when this stuff was muted it's just a better short-term data series without the vol/noise of those components.  Longer-term though you want them in and if the upmoves are sustained long-enough they will make their way in.

Fri, 05/27/2011 - 17:54 | 1318270 Iam_Silverman
Iam_Silverman's picture

"You can look at it either way but even when this stuff was muted it's just a better short-term data series without the vol/noise "

I agree - I was just trying to make a point though.  They use whatever numbers they need in order to make the overall picture just a little bit rosier.  Sure, consumer spending is up - but only because food and fuel has risen.  But, if you ask them if the increase in consumer spending was due to inflation, they say no, and point to their inflation numbers that conveniently carve those two volatile indices out.

Do they like to have their (your) cake, and eat it too?

Fri, 05/27/2011 - 08:51 | 1315978 takinthehighway
takinthehighway's picture

Some things never change...

“Here we are, servants today!

And the land that You gave to our fathers, To eat its fruit and its bounty, Here we are, servants in it! And it yields much increase to the kings You have set over us, Because of our sins; Also they have dominion over our bodies and our cattle At their pleasure; And we are in great distress. - Book of Nehemiah
Mon, 05/30/2011 - 22:54 | 1324280 joiceca
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