Today's Economic Data Docket - Personal Non-Income And Lack Of Savings, UMich Sentiment And Pending Home Sales
Personal income, completely irrelevant and mostly made up consumer sentiment and pending home sales.
8:30: Personal income and outlays (April): Weak real spending. Goldman forecasts that nominal consumer spending increased by 0.4% mom in April, but all of the gain likely resulted from price change. In real terms, it forecasts that consumer spending was flat during the month. Similarly, it forecasts a 0.6% increase in nominal personal income, but just a 0.2% increase after adjusting for inflation. For the core PCE deflator, it forecasts a firm reading of +0.23% mom. Yesterday’s GDP report implied that both income and spending for prior months will be revised down.
Income: GS +0.6%; median forecast (of 77): +0.4%; last +0.5%.
Spending: GS: +0.4%; median forecast (of 81): +0.5%; last +0.6%.
Core PCE price index: GS: +0.23%; median forecast (of 56): +0.2%; last +0.1%.
10:00 (9:55 to subscribers): Reuters/University of Michigan consumer sentiment (May final): Probably unchanged. Forecasters are looking for this index to remain unchanged in the final May result, after increasing moderately in the preliminary report. In the last release, the measure of 5-10yr inflation expectations was 3.0%—in the middle of its typical range.
Median forecast (of 52): 70.0; last 69.6 (Apr prelim).
10:00: Pending home sales (April): Small reversal? The consensus expects that the pending home sales index fell 1.0% mom in April after a 5% increase in March. This measure tracks signed rather than closed home sales contracts, and leads the official count of existing home sales by 1-2 months.
Median forecast (of 39): unchanged; last -1.0%.
from GS and ZH
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