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Today's Economic Data Docket - Plunging ISM, Weak ADP, Collapsing Car Sales

Tyler Durden's picture




 

The ISM, ADP, and vehicle sales for May: all expected to be horrible. In other rhetorical observations, what kind of stingy depressionary economy won't let a Fed chairman buy a virtuous economic cycle for $800 billion?
 
8:15: ADP employment report (May): Extremely irrelevant but for some reason the lemming herd looks at it. Over the last three months, the ADP forecast of private payroll growth has under-predicted the official BLS count by about 50k. This likely explains the gap between consensus forecasts for ADP (175k) and consensus forecasts for private payrolls (210k). The breakdown in job growth between manufacturing and other goods-producing sectors could help explain the rise in jobless claims in late April.
Median forecast (of 37): +175k; last +179k.
 
10:00: Construction outlays (April): Small decline. Goldman forecasts a small decline in nominal construction expenditures as the lagged effect of past declines in housing starts weighs on residential building.
GS: -0.2%; median forecast (of 50): +0.3%; last +1.4%.
 
10:00: ISM manufacturing index (May): Slower growth. Goldman expects that the ISM index will show significantly slower growth in the manufacturing sector in May, consistent with the message from the various regional surveys. It forecasts a below-consensus 56.5, following a 60.4 last month. The weaker result likely reflects higher oil prices, supply chain disruptions, and other factors restraining growth.
GS: 56.5; median forecast (of 80): 57.1; last: 60.4.
 
Late morning/early afternoon: Lightweight vehicle sales (May). Large decline. Goldman forecasts a sharp drop in vehicle sales in May due to higher gas prices and supply chain disruptions in the auto sector (which has both limited the number of cars and reduced dealer incentives). Anecdotal commentary from the manufacturers may help determine how much of the weakness is likely to prove temporary.
For total sales: GS: 12.3 million; median forecast (of 42): 12.4mm; last: 13.1mm.
For domestic: GS: 9.3 mm; median forecast (of 16): 9.8mm; last 10.2mm.
 
12:25: Cleveland Fed President Sandra Pianalto on “Labor Markets and Monetary Policy”.

14:00: Federal Reserve General Counsel Scott Alvarez will testify on "Federal Reserve Lending Disclosures" before the House Subcommittee on Domestic Monetary Policy and Technology, which is chaired by Representative Ron Paul of Texas. 

22:20: San Francisco Fed President John Williams on “Economics Instruction and the Brave New World of Monetary Policy”.

From GS and ZH

 

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Wed, 06/01/2011 - 07:39 | 1327887 Boilermaker
Boilermaker's picture

....and futures are where?

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 07:39 | 1327890 cashcow
cashcow's picture

Great buying opportunity?

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 07:58 | 1327929 blindfaith
blindfaith's picture

yes, I am going to go buy a bible and pray for a fucking miracle.  Nothing else appears to work.

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 09:18 | 1328142 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

what kind of stingy depressionary economy won't let a Fed chairman buy a virtuous economic cycle for $800 billion?

 

800 billion?

C'mon, Zero Hedge!

Bernanke & Timmmmayyy have plied the system with at least 8 trillion, and as much as 12 trillion, if one includes TARP, TALF, Quantitative Easing, Federal Reserve & Treasury backstopping and guarantees of loans, credit facilities, and other machinations.

 

The worst investment of time, (un)thinking and money ever implemented by a government and globalist Lizardian Ward of Rothschild ever made (whether by design or not).

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 07:39 | 1327893 euclidean
euclidean's picture

>Brave New World of Monetary Policy ?????????

WTF? Do you people have 12 year olds running the Fed Reserve? What a bullshit reinvention of age old monetary manipulation. Try the interest rate lever you halfwits.

There is nothing brave about the shit you are pulling with ZIRP and your home grown currency devaluation.

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 07:39 | 1327894 PaperBear
PaperBear's picture

The lack of demand for the USD and other forms of paper is behind demand for gold and silver.

Convince the brainwashed precious metals bears with this statement and leave the bankster propagandising precious metals bears to their fate.

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 07:40 | 1327895 Everybodys All ...
Everybodys All American's picture

Goldman this Goldman that.

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 07:41 | 1327899 Sean7k
Sean7k's picture

Speculation in a bubble shows no reason. When the equity bubble pops, it will be proclaimed unforseeable. Techs will lead. 

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 07:59 | 1327919 BlackholeDivestment
BlackholeDivestment's picture

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fpzpdEZGZXk

Buy The F'n Dip Cup of Fornication ...Chairsatan is filling it up http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JEPwvMhzVd4

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 07:54 | 1327921 dcb
dcb's picture

A big couse of this mess and data not being reflected in the market is HFT. when there is no cost of trading, no taxation of pernalty for holding shares less than 30 seconds, the market can't function the way it should. a tobin tax would help.

 

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 08:00 | 1327932 the not so migh...
the not so mighty maximiza's picture

Kick ass numbers from kick ass leaders.  A PhD in every Cracker Jack Box, a PhD for everyone!!!!

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 08:05 | 1327934 blindfaith
blindfaith's picture

10:00: Construction outlays (April): Small decline.

Gosh with only 4 million sold of the over 20 million houses in bank possession, why is this such a surprise...Oh, that is right Goldman said it, now it has teeth.

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 08:05 | 1327935 overmedicatedun...
overmedicatedundersexed's picture

no way out, the people suffer the madness of kings.

raise taxes, lower taxes, more QE or no QE..

the root cause of the peoples malaise (even if not fully understood by many)  is...Justice has not been served.

until the criminal manipulations that resulted in 2008 crash are brought to the sun light and those tax dollars are clawed back  and those criminal bankers and pols face prison..no amount of economic tinkering will fix the root cause.

party on DC and wall street..until the mob comes to exact that Justice

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 08:09 | 1327942 Use of Weapons
Use of Weapons's picture

New painting of Lloyd Blankfein to be hung at head office, unveiled today:

http://www.skotolsen.com/paintings/detail.php?id=146

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 08:18 | 1327958 Sean7k
Sean7k's picture

Doing God's work- taking the people down to their deaths. Nice catch.

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 08:15 | 1327956 PaperBear
PaperBear's picture

ADP only 38k when 175k was expected - HOLY S**T. How bad is that ?

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 08:20 | 1327962 Sean7k
Sean7k's picture

And with the McDonalds hiring splurge. Wow, that is a disaster.

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 08:20 | 1327960 flyr1710
flyr1710's picture

38,000...wow...i guess double dip recession is transitory

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 08:23 | 1327970 PaperBear
PaperBear's picture

A 80% miss on ADP, up will step Sandra Pianalto to grease the skids for further QE.

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 08:24 | 1327986 johny2
johny2's picture

QAD1 

quantitative air dropping 1

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 08:30 | 1327998 Rockfish
Rockfish's picture

Median forecast (of 37): +175k; last +179k.

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 09:13 | 1328091 virgilcaine
virgilcaine's picture

Housing is dead and isn't coming back, the chart of existing home sales will look like new home sales in a few months.  Price & Sales are in Crash mode now.

One thing we have learned is how LONG these cycles last once a major trend has changed course.. Japan still in re decline 21 yrs later.

 

Why do I  see a crash looming in RE?  The Psych. component, people are emotionally attached to their houses, when They should be treating it as a liability and getting out anyway they can. More than Half of all Home debtors are underwater and increasing daily.

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 09:18 | 1328131 White.Star.Line
White.Star.Line's picture

My future classified ad-

COLLECTORS ITEM FOR SALE
2009 Honda Accord, PRE-Fukushima, with certified low rad backup parts. Will trade for 2 grams of gold, or 100 acres of prime farmland, or 5000 wheelbarrows filled with any world currency.

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 09:25 | 1328150 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

QE2 worked as planned, it siphoned profits to da bankstas.

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 11:41 | 1328921 jmc8888
jmc8888's picture

"Brave new world of monetary policy"....how about "Same old shit"

Is it brave to be the asshole that puts such idiocy forward? I mean is a lemming brave for jumping off a cliff?

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 12:26 | 1329165 glenlloyd
glenlloyd's picture

I think history has taught us that 'the brave new world' isn't all that new, nor does it require much bravery to impose bad monetary policy and impoverish a population.

When will they start selling rotten veggies at these fed speeches?

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