Today's Economic Data Docket - Plunging ISM, Weak ADP, Collapsing Car Sales
The ISM, ADP, and vehicle sales for May: all expected to be horrible. In other rhetorical observations, what kind of stingy depressionary economy won't let a Fed chairman buy a virtuous economic cycle for $800 billion?
8:15: ADP employment report (May): Extremely irrelevant but for some reason the lemming herd looks at it. Over the last three months, the ADP forecast of private payroll growth has under-predicted the official BLS count by about 50k. This likely explains the gap between consensus forecasts for ADP (175k) and consensus forecasts for private payrolls (210k). The breakdown in job growth between manufacturing and other goods-producing sectors could help explain the rise in jobless claims in late April.
Median forecast (of 37): +175k; last +179k.
10:00: Construction outlays (April): Small decline. Goldman forecasts a small decline in nominal construction expenditures as the lagged effect of past declines in housing starts weighs on residential building.
GS: -0.2%; median forecast (of 50): +0.3%; last +1.4%.
10:00: ISM manufacturing index (May): Slower growth. Goldman expects that the ISM index will show significantly slower growth in the manufacturing sector in May, consistent with the message from the various regional surveys. It forecasts a below-consensus 56.5, following a 60.4 last month. The weaker result likely reflects higher oil prices, supply chain disruptions, and other factors restraining growth.
GS: 56.5; median forecast (of 80): 57.1; last: 60.4.
Late morning/early afternoon: Lightweight vehicle sales (May). Large decline. Goldman forecasts a sharp drop in vehicle sales in May due to higher gas prices and supply chain disruptions in the auto sector (which has both limited the number of cars and reduced dealer incentives). Anecdotal commentary from the manufacturers may help determine how much of the weakness is likely to prove temporary.
For total sales: GS: 12.3 million; median forecast (of 42): 12.4mm; last: 13.1mm.
For domestic: GS: 9.3 mm; median forecast (of 16): 9.8mm; last 10.2mm.
12:25: Cleveland Fed President Sandra Pianalto on “Labor Markets and Monetary Policy”.
14:00: Federal Reserve General Counsel Scott Alvarez will testify on "Federal Reserve Lending Disclosures" before the House Subcommittee on Domestic Monetary Policy and Technology, which is chaired by Representative Ron Paul of Texas.
22:20: San Francisco Fed President John Williams on “Economics Instruction and the Brave New World of Monetary Policy”.
From GS and ZH