Today's Economic Data Docket - Retail Sales, Bond Auction/Monetization, JOLTS, Beige Book, And Obama's Deficit Statement

Tyler Durden's picture

Busy day with quite a bit on the economic front: if Gallup is right March retail sales will be weaker than expected. Other key events include the JOLTS survey, business inventories, a Treasury auction and the inverse - POMO; and last Obama is presenting at noon his deficit reduction plan.

8:30: Retail sales (March): Upside Risks. We see upside risk to consensus estimates. We are forecasting a gain of 0.7% mom in total sales (median: 0.5%) and 1.0% ex-autos (median: 0.7%). Once shifts in the timing of Easter are taken into account, chain-store sales looked healthy. Moreover, price increases may lift the nominal value of sales for some products.
On total sales, median forecast (of 82): +0.5%; last: +1.0%;
On sales ex autos, median forecast (of 72): +0.7%; last +0.7%.

10:00: Business inventories (February). Not a market mover, but the non-auto retail inventory component could have an impact on our “bean-count” estimate of Q1 GDP.
Median forecast (of 48): +0.8%; last +0.9%.
10:00 JOLTS (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey) (February). The monthly JOLTS report includes data on gross labor market flows, and therefore provides more detail on current job conditions than the timelier Employment Report. As of the January figures, both gross layoffs and gross hiring activity remained low.

11:00 POMO Closes: Fed Monetizes $4-6 Billion in 10/15/2012-09/30/2013 bonds

Mid-day: President Obama presents deficit-reduction plan.

13:00 Treasury Auction: $21 Billion in 9-Year 10-Month Reopening

14:00: Federal Reserve’s Beige Book. Currently we see a mixed message in the various measures of real activity. On the one hand, expenditure-related data, which feed into our estimate of GDP, have unexpectedly weakened. On the other hand, surveys, and some other “hard” data still look strong (e.g. industrial production). The anecdotal information in the latest Beige Book may help clarify which is a more accurate depiction of current activity.

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Racer's picture

Futures are up, and the bots don't care about no funnymentals

HelluvaEngineer's picture

Yup.  Gap the futures above the highs of yesterday.  Problem solved.  Rally time.

firstdivision's picture

MBA applications were way down yet again.  QE3 not for you nor me!

Chuck Walla's picture

Obama for entitlement reduction is like a crack addict for less drugs on the street.

Translational Lift's picture

The biggest spender in the history of the universe is going to present his deficit reduction plan.............Right!

Any bridges for sale??  This is what happens when only half of the US pays taxes....the middleclass gets it up the ass.......w/o Lubrizol!


youngman's picture

How many times will he say "they need to" as in Congress....rather than "I will".....meaning he is taking the ball and running with it....he will give advice...or I mean teleprompters... from the sidelines...he might get hurt if he takes the ball...its easier to play Monday morning quarterback ...I heard loopholes again for big savings.....sorry...its cut... cut... cut.... eliminate... and cut some more...that is the ONLY way to save this country...they fought for a month over Planned goes to zero...along with 10,000 other programs....sorry...that is the hard truth

jmc8888's picture

Let's see if fascist NerObama does the banksters bidding (the ONLY reason) to cut social security or medicare/medicaid.  Everything else is a fraudulent debt smokescreen the idiots have been propogandized about 'balanced budgets = everything' sophistry.

Nope, they're not cutting because of some fake 'balanced budget' debate, that's for the idiots, they're doing it because they want to steal more, and if given the chance, they will.

Glass-Steagall (not fascist unamerican cuts to needed services)...sorry if you've been propagandized.  [and that doesn't mean that there aren't ways to decrease healthcare costs....hill/burton standard, as well as voiding all healthcare CMBS MERS loans, as starters]

Everyone cheering for medicare/medicaid cuts are fucktards who do the banksters bidding. FACT.