Today we get the second estimate of Q1 GDP and jobless claims for last week. Somehow a claims number over 400,000 is once again considered a good thing. Elsewhere the Fed buys $5-7 billion in 05/31/2015-11/15/2016 bonds, even as the Treasury gets even deeper into net debt ceiling breach courtesy of the last bond in the scheduled series this week which saw total US marketable debt increase by $110 billion gross and $49 billion net.
8:30: GDP for Q1 (second estimate): Upward revision. Data released since the advance estimate of Q1 GDP implies an upward revision to 2.1% (qoq annualized) from 1¾% previously. The largest upward revisions should come from business fixed investment (particularly structures) and inventories. Consumer spending is likely to be revised down slightly after annual benchmark revisions to retail sales. We expect that final sales—GDP less the contribution from inventories—will be revised up by two tenths to 1.0%.
GS: +2.1%; median forecast (of 82): +2.2%; last (Q1 advance estimate) +1.75%.
8:30: Jobless claims (Week of May 21): Watching for weather effects. Recent volatility in initial jobless claims likely reflects a variety of factors, including auto production cuts, seasonal adjustment bias, inclement weather in the South, and perhaps some underlying weakness in the economy. For the current week, the main question is whether higher claims resulting from tornados and flooding in the South offset further declines in auto-related filings. We see balanced risks around the consensus forecast (which drifted up this week to 404k from 400k at the start of the week).
Median forecast (of 47): 404,000; last: 409,000.
13:00: $29 billion 7 year bond auction. Following the stellar success of yesterday's 5 Year which came with the US deep in debt ceiling breach, look for today's 7 year to do even better as another $29 billion in retirement accounts will be squashed to make room. Then again since Goldman is not advising its clients to short the 7 Year (unlike the 5 Year), there is some risk we may get a bond failure (surely, we jest).