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Today's Economic Data Docket - Trade And Budget Deficits, Fed Speeches Galore, New POMO Schedule

Tyler Durden's picture




 

A bunch of big deficit numbers today (trade and budget, the latter expected to confirm that the Treasury is in desperate need of cutting spending), and even more Fed speeches signifying nothing but attempting to confuse even more. Most importantly, the Fed will announce the latest POMO schedule at 2:00PM EST.

8:30: Import/export price indexes (March). Higher commodity prices. The rise in commodity prices should result in a sizable increase in overall US import prices. However, we expect that inflation in imports of finished consumer goods remained moderate.
Median forecast (of 50): +2.1%; last +1.4%.
 
8:30: US trade balance (February). Chinese New Year effect reverses. Our research suggests that US trade statistics do not correctly account for shifts in the timing of the Chinese New Year holiday (see Andrew Tilton. “US Trade Balance Bounces into the Year of the Rabbit,” US Daily, April 6, 2011). We believe this was the cause of the exceptionally strong growth in real imports reported in January. For February, the effect should reverse, leading to a marked improvement in the real trade balance.
Median forecast (of 71) -$44.0bn; last -$46.3bn.
 
9:15: Kansas City Fed President Thomas Hoenig speaks on regulatory issues. He is not currently a voting member of the FOMC.
 
14:00: The US budget balance (March). The CBO estimates that the March budget deficit increased by $124bn from the same month last year. The deterioration reflects technical factors, rather than a fundamental deterioration in government finances (last March, the Treasury made a one-time accounting change to the projected cost of the TARP).
CBO -$189bn; median forecast (of 28) -$189bn; last (March 2010): -$65.4bn.

14:00: New York Federal Reserve to announce size and distribution of latest POMO schedule. Important here will be how much the Fed expects QE Lite will contribute: recent MBS repurchases have slowed drastically which means April-May could be the lowest QE total amount so far.

14:15: Federal Reserve Governor Daniel Tarullo testifies on regulatory issues.
 
14:50: Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher moderates panel discussion on “How Does an Economy Grow?” Mr. Fisher is a voting member of the FOMC this year.

From Goldman and Zero Hedge

 

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Tue, 04/12/2011 - 08:12 | 1161025 Ray1968
Ray1968's picture

Higher commmodity prices = more economic activity = increased GDP.

POMO goes right to the bottom line = increased GDP

BULLISH! What's our new target for the Russel 2K?

Tue, 04/12/2011 - 08:21 | 1161055 topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture

How about down five percent, a major correction, in the next two months.

A bear market nowdays is down 7 percent. A catastrophe.

Tue, 04/12/2011 - 08:12 | 1161031 plocequ1
plocequ1's picture

More POMO? Rally on. It cant be that bad. Fuck math, Its boring. Adam Smith is full of shit

Tue, 04/12/2011 - 08:25 | 1161066 Ray1968
Ray1968's picture

I'm hoping so. I'm tired of my SPX and SPY puts expiring. Gets costly after a while!

Tue, 04/12/2011 - 08:18 | 1161041 TexDenim
TexDenim's picture

The POMO schedule is interesting right now because we're in the final stretch. And the markets are showing it. I see an ocean of red ink on my monitor right now. The easy money is about to be cut.

Tue, 04/12/2011 - 08:26 | 1161073 blindfaith
blindfaith's picture

Oh Ben will come to the rescue, he is likely to be the hexd head of FridoLay.... ' Dorittos, eat one we'll make more'.  Need cash, we'll print more.

Tue, 04/12/2011 - 08:18 | 1161044 topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture

If the fedspeak confuses us into a deflationary scare that is good enough for me. Real or imagined deflation is fine because i am waiting.for a dip mostly in cash.

Tue, 04/12/2011 - 08:25 | 1161070 lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

Debt ceiling reached early next week...

Tue, 04/12/2011 - 08:42 | 1161098 duncecap rack
duncecap rack's picture

Is there some sort of conclusion to the position limits issue expected today?

Tue, 04/12/2011 - 09:04 | 1161183 overmedicatedun...
overmedicatedundersexed's picture

Erin burnett girl economy reporter tells us all that we can relax: "Near the end of the segment, Burnett remarked that the United States is "...a very wealthy country. If you look at our assets, we could pay down the debt tomorrow. We choose to borrow because we can borrow at incredibly low interest rates." By "assets," Burnett seemed to be referring to the income of all Americans (unless she plans to auction off the Statue of Liberty to pay our bills)."

Tue, 04/12/2011 - 09:27 | 1161260 ZippyBananaPants
ZippyBananaPants's picture

I saw her say that too, and wondered how such an idiot can make it on tv?  She gave Cramer a look like 'I will blow you again later today if you can follow up on that, and not make me look so stupid'. 

Tue, 04/12/2011 - 12:12 | 1161851 dcb
dcb's picture

She is very hot though!!!

come on she is a corporate media voice and reads what is written for her from the ministry of propaganda.

Tue, 04/12/2011 - 12:15 | 1161864 dcb
dcb's picture

Hey tyler how about some links so we can pehaps watch hoenig ( I'd vote for him for president by the way).

 

Or some links so we can watch the fed guys talk. It's just all theater.Honestly I don't think there is an official I actually listen to anymore. But the talks aren't for us they are for the other liars among them. Gotta keep up the illusion (LOL)

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