Today, we get the March trade balance and JOLTS reports. Also, the Treasury continues its exercises in debt ceiling breach by issuing another $24 billion in 10 Year notes, while the Fed explains its monetization intentions for the next month as it releases the latest POMO schedule at 2 pm EDT.
8:30: The US trade balance (March): Oil price effect. We forecast that the trade balance widened to -$48bn from -$45.8bn last month as higher oil prices pushed up the nominal value of petroleum imports. In its advance estimate of Q1 GDP, the Commerce Department also assumed a sizable widening of the trade balance.
GS: -$48bn, median forecast (of 72) -$47bn; last -$45.8bn.
10:00 JOLTS (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey) (March). The monthly JOLTS report includes data on gross labor market flows, and therefore provides more detail on current job conditions than the timelier Employment Report. The improvement in private payroll growth suggests the report may show increased job openings and hiring activity. The data in the report is probably too old to determine the cause of the recent rise in jobless claims.
12:15: Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart on the economic outlook.
13:00: Minneapolis Fed President Narayana Kocherlakota on “Some Contingent Planning for Monetary Policy”. Q&A scheduled.
13:00: Cleveland Fed President Sandra Pianalto on the economic outlook and monetary policy. Q&A scheduled.
13:00: Treasury issues another $24 billion in 10 Year bonds. Unclear how these will settle under the debt ceiling
14:00: The US budget balance (April). The CBO estimates that the April budget deficit declined to $41bn from $83bn in the same month last year. The reduction mostly reflects a substantial improvement in tax receipts, and particularly non-withheld personal income and payrolls tax payments.
CBO -$41bn; median forecast (of 25) -$41bn; last (April 2010): -$83bn.
14:00: Fed releases new POMO schedule at 2:00 pm
from GS and ZH